[vpFREE] Re: Wizard of Odds ten best casino games

 

If you were playing quarter 10/7 DB at MSS, you'd want to hold AA over AAxx. The guaranteed $2 scratchoff is worth it.

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Posted by: tringlomane@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Re: Wizard of Odds ten best casino games

 

I wrote, "You do about 1% better by holding trip A's vs Aces full.   Since dealt Aces full occurs about once in 9,000 hands, the overall net gain from playing that hand correctly is 0.0001%.   That's a $1 saving for every $1 million in bets."


Specifically, a 5-unit bet has an EV of 50.574 if you hold the trips, compared to 50.000 if you hold the FH.  The difference is indeed "about 1%" of the EV, BUT it's 11.5% of the initial bet.   (Thanks go to my old friend "Shoe" for pointing this out.)    This makes the cost about 10 times greater than I had calculated, but luckily, 10 times almost nothing is still almost nothing.  In this case, the savings for every $1,000,000 in bets is actually $12.70.

There is a similar but even smaller correction to be made for the AAXX vs AA decision.   The result is that you actually save 95 cents per $100,000 bets, not 50 cents as I'd written.

--Dunbar


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote :

Lone Locust is correct, but both decisions are pretty close, and making the wrong choice is almost costless.

You do about 1% better by holding trip A's vs Aces full.   Since dealt Aces full occurs about once in 9,000 hands, the overall net gain from playing that hand correctly is 0.0001%.   That's a $1 saving for every $1 million in bets.  I'm sure that if you have any bankroll considerations at all at the level you're playing, you're better off keeping the full house.  (I just wanted to get that in before NOTI said it!  ;>)

Holding AA over AAxx nets you a tiny 0.15% gain.   You have a 0.37% chance of being dealt AAXX, so the total gain is 0.15%*0.37% = 0.00054%.   (For every $100,000 in action, you save about 50 cents by making the right decision.)

Harry also suggested following "A over 2 hi (exc suited JQ)."   That's gotta be an "oops", right?    Harry, maybe you were thinking DDB, but even then it would be something like "A over unsuited 2 hi (exc JQ)."  

--Dunbar


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <zorak@...> wrote :

On Wed, 18 Jul 2019, harry.porter@... [vpFREE] wrote:
> Hope you at least add:
> Pair AA over 2 pr, AAA over FH, A over 2 hi (exc suited JQ).

It's admittedly been quite a long time since I played 10/7 but
I don't remember breaking AAxx to hold just AA. 9/7 maybe?

AAA > AAAxx, yes.

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Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com
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[vpFREE] Illinois Gambling Expansion

 

A fair rundown of what the new law will allow across the state..  More casino licenses, Racinos, more machines in the barcinos, multiple options for sports betting and a big shiny new casino for Chicago.  Everyone gets a slice of pie.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/ct-cb-chicago-casino-sports-betting-licenses-20190712-fk56hj7vwfffxjo6xurcfsyg4e-story.html


We import our alligator trappers from Florida. Chicago uses Union Gaming Analytics out of LV to study its new 4000 betting position casino.  So far it's the SOS about placing the casino in an economically needy area to improve the surrounding community.  I have been to a lot of casinos and it doesn't seem to work out that way.  No one is paying me a big stack of green to do "analytics", but if you are putting in a casino because you need money, why not put the casino where the money is?


C

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Posted by: cmayhem@comcast.net
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Wizard of Odds ten best casino games

 

Lone Locust is correct, but both decisions are pretty close, and making the wrong choice is almost costless.


You do about 1% better by holding trip A's vs Aces full.   Since dealt Aces full occurs about once in 9,000 hands, the overall net gain from playing that hand correctly is 0.0001%.   That's a $1 saving for every $1 million in bets.  I'm sure that if you have any bankroll considerations at all at the level you're playing, you're better off keeping the full house.  (I just wanted to get that in before NOTI said it!  ;>)

Holding AA over AAxx nets you a tiny 0.15% gain.   You have a 0.37% chance of being dealt AAXX, so the total gain is 0.15%*0.37% = 0.00054%.   (For every $100,000 in action, you save about 50 cents by making the right decision.)

Harry also suggested following "A over 2 hi (exc suited JQ)."   That's gotta be an "oops", right?    Harry, maybe you were thinking DDB, but even then it would be something like "A over unsuited 2 hi (exc JQ)."  

--Dunbar


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <zorak@...> wrote :

On Wed, 18 Jul 2019, harry.porter@... [vpFREE] wrote:
> Hope you at least add:
> Pair AA over 2 pr, AAA over FH, A over 2 hi (exc suited JQ).

It's admittedly been quite a long time since I played 10/7 but
I don't remember breaking AAxx to hold just AA. 9/7 maybe?

AAA > AAAxx, yes.

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Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Wizard of Odds ten best casino games

 

On Wed, 18 Jul 2019, harry.porter@verizon.net [vpFREE] wrote:
> Hope you at least add:
> Pair AA over 2 pr, AAA over FH, A over 2 hi (exc suited JQ).

It's admittedly been quite a long time since I played 10/7 but
I don't remember breaking AAxx to hold just AA. 9/7 maybe?

AAA > AAAxx, yes.

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Posted by: Lone Locust of the Apocalypse <zorak@ninthbit.com>
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[vpFREE] DTG: No points for VP

 
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