[vpFREE] Re: Shackleford's top parlay on GWAE

 


On a ESPN radio a day or two before the game, a gentleman in charge of posting the prop bets at the Las Vegas Hotel (was the LV Hilton) said the current odds on the safety there were 6-1 and he thought they might go down to 5-1. He added that most tourists don't want to vote on the "no" so that affects the movement of the odds. He added that when there is a safety or over-time, the casinos take a bath on those bets.

LA Bum

---------------------------------------

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tooncesthecatwhocoulddriveacar" <tooncestdc@...> wrote:
>
> Has noone on here mentioned Shackleford's recommendation on Gambling With an Edge of betting "No Safety" for about -1000 when the true odds are 19-1? I nearly put $1300 on it but balked at the crappy -1300 odds at Caesar's Palace. Then just got off the plane to see how much money I saved! I figured a fair number of people on this board lost their shirt.
>
> Btw, I think Super Bowls in Indy must be gaffed. Safeties happen at a much larger rate than would be predicted. :)
>
> Sammy Katz
>

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[vpFREE] Re: EV of Station Casinos $5 Million Car a Day Giveaway

 

Oops, meant to say 4 x $500 winners.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "csantos84" <drumbandit@...> wrote:
>
> Does anyone know from experience the approximate EV of this play? If I played a few hours of dollar NSUD VP I could earn about 200 more entries per day on top of the 10 given when I swipe my card. Prize pool per casino per day is $25,000 (top heavy prize worth $23,000 plus 5 x $400 winners).
>
> I figured I need a 1 in 250 chance to win with 200 entries for an approximate EV of $100 to make it worth my time. Am I overestimating my odds here?
>
> I need to go look at the rules somewhere!
>

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[vpFREE] EV of Station Casinos $5 Million Car a Day Giveaway

 

Does anyone know from experience the approximate EV of this play? If I played a few hours of dollar NSUD VP I could earn about 200 more entries per day on top of the 10 given when I swipe my card. Prize pool per casino per day is $25,000 (top heavy prize worth $23,000 plus 5 x $400 winners).

I figured I need a 1 in 250 chance to win with 200 entries for an approximate EV of $100 to make it worth my time. Am I overestimating my odds here?

I need to go look at the rules somewhere!

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[vpFREE] Re: The What If I played Progressives Game

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:
>
<snip>
>--when it's entirely too easy to go on royalless streaks for hundreds of thousands of hands....and multiple times each year?
>

Baloney. As it reads, your statement is misleading.

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Re: [vpFREE] The What If I played Progressives Game

 

I'm reading this as "Trust me, I will always hit my share of royals to offset and overcome the otherwise poor paytables". That seems like a guarantee, and as we all know, people and teams have been and will be wiped out when enough royals aren't hit.

I once went around town with our late friend Elliott Shapiro "scouting" for what he called playable progressives. In almost every case he knew one or more of the players as well as having no idea who more than half of them were. My question is, how can anyone say they or their "team" will get their share of royals--making it all appear to be too easy--when it's entirely too easy to go on royalless streaks for hundreds of thousands of hands....and multiple times each year?

----- Reply message -----
From: "Frank" <frank@progressivevp.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] The What If I played Progressives Game
Date: Mon, Feb 6, 2012 3:47 pm
What If I only Played Progressives???

There seems to be a lot of confusion about why high progressives are good to play and where the edge comes from. Superficially this is hard to understand since the basic concept is so simple. Bigger is better. No one contests that a 9/6 JoB game is better than a 8/5 Job game, because you get more for the Flush and Full House. It's obvious. Where the disconnect seems to occur is when the extra money comes on an infrequent Jackpot. We would all agree that a job that paid $4,000 a month was better than one that paid $100 a day. It wouldn't matter that the one job paid out 30 times as often, the only thing that would matter was the monthly earn. Here the job that pays once a month is clearly better by a $1,000 a month margin. You could even extend the metaphor to a job that paid $8,000 every two months or one that paid $48,000 a year without confusing too many people. The same dynamic applies to video poker, it is simply harder to see because of the obfuscating effect randomness has on results.

Try this trick, imagine what if I always played high progressives?

In order to do this mental exercise you'll need two data points:

1.You need to know exactly how many jackpots you've hit in a period of time.

2.You need to know exactly what your losses were during this same period of time.

Notice I said "jackpots" not "Royal Flushes". You could use RF's as your experiment, but any hand will do as long as you remember exactly how many you got over a period of time. For instance, some progressives have meters for 4 Aces. One could play for high 4 Aces just as easily as they could for a high Royal. Progressives do not HAVE to be high on the RF to be playable. For this experiment I'm going to use RF's as an example.

OK so you've got your numbers. Now here's what to do with them to play the "what if I had played progressives" game.

1.Take your net loss and divide by the number of Jackpots you have hit.

2.Now add this amount to the reset value of the jackpot.

3.This is how high the JP would have needed to be for you to have broken-even.

Example:

In the last five years you've hit 10 Royals. You are also down $40,000 overall during that period.

$40,000 / 10 = $4,000

A Royal normally pays $4,000, so $4,000 + $4,000 = $8,000

Now imagine that you only played when the JP was over $12,000??? Same number of Royals, same losses, but because you got more for each of them a loss is magically transmuted into a win.

Another even easier way to consider, "what if I'd only played high progressives" would be to simply multiply all your jackpots by 3 and see if you'd still be down. At the very least, even if 3x wasn't enough to make you a winner overall, you'd be down a lot less. A LOT less.

Bigger is better.

You will not necessarily get more jackpots playing progressives, and you will have to take forced breaks from playing when someone hits the progressive (even if that's you), but when looked at from an equal amount of play you will be getting more for each jackpot.

I don't really recommend looking at the past as a predictor of the future, since obviously some people will have gotten more jackpots than they should have, and others will have gotten less. How many one should get is still the more important factor for making good decision in your future. The point of this exercise was to use actual results to illustrate the basic concepts for people that have difficulty thinking in terms of expectancy.

~FK

document.write(""); var YWATracker = YWA.getTracker("10001615631662");YWATracker.submit(); TODAY(Beta) &bull;

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Odyssey VP video

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, TedChee@... wrote:
>
> Thanks for the video. It brought back a lot of good memories & one bad
> one. The only time I gambled in MN was on an Odyssey which took 6 hrs to hit
> the bonus! Just surprised that they are still around because I thought IGT
> won a lawsuit which put Silicon Gaming out of business.
>
>
As I remember it Silicon Gaming got into bigtime money trouble by trying to get to big to fast and IGT bought them out just to put them out of business.

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[vpFREE] Re: Odyssey VP video

 

Thanks for the video. It brought back a lot of good memories & one bad
one. The only time I gambled in MN was on an Odyssey which took 6 hrs to hit
the bonus! Just surprised that they are still around because I thought IGT
won a lawsuit which put Silicon Gaming out of business.


In a message dated 2/5/2012 8:43:02 A.M. Pacific Standard Time,
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com writes:

_Re: Planned Vegas Trip _
(http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/message/119212;_ylc=X3oDMTJzcWRlcjYyBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE1BGdycElkAzQ2NDEwMTcEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1
MDY1NzMyBG1zZ0lkAzExOTIxMgRzZWMDZG1zZwRzbGsDdm1zZwRzdGltZQMxMzI4NDYwMTc2)
Posted by: "Dave" _haaljo@yahoo.com _ (mailto:haaljo@yahoo.com?Subject=
Re:%20Planned%20Vegas%20Trip) _haaljo _ (http://profiles.yahoo.com/haaljo)
Sat Feb 4, 2012 6:23 pm (PST)

"...And who remembers the Odyssey VP with the bonus feature on those
machines?..."

Bonus Round Video:
_http://www.youtube.http://wwwhttp://www.yo_
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wef5WVEs4Vc)

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: The What If I played Progressives Game

 

The "IF" in my "what if" post was a big one. It's nearly impossible to find such high progressives anywhere these days. The point of this post was not to encourage people to try to play, only explain the concept. Believe it or not their are a lot of people out there that can't even understand why it's a good idea or where the edge comes from.

In the 90's such opportunities were ubiquitous.

~FK

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[vpFREE] Re: The What If I played Progressives Game

 

I'd be curious to know for how many people multiplying their Royals by 3x or 4x would translate to them being ahead overall instead of stuck???

~FK

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[vpFREE] Re: The What If I played Progressives Game

 

The "IF" in my "what if" post was a big one. It's nearly impossible to find such high progressives anywhere these days. The point of this post was not to encourage people to try to play, only explain the concept. Believe it or not their are a lot of people out there that can't even understand why it's a good idea or where the edge comes from.

In the nighties such opportunities were ubiquitous.

~FK

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[vpFREE] The What If I played Progressives Game

 

What If I only Played Progressives???

There seems to be a lot of confusion about why high progressives are good to play and where the edge comes from. Superficially this is hard to understand since the basic concept is so simple. Bigger is better. No one contests that a 9/6 JoB game is better than a 8/5 Job game, because you get more for the Flush and Full House. It's obvious. Where the disconnect seems to occur is when the extra money comes on an infrequent Jackpot. We would all agree that a job that paid $4,000 a month was better than one that paid $100 a day. It wouldn't matter that the one job paid out 30 times as often, the only thing that would matter was the monthly earn. Here the job that pays once a month is clearly better by a $1,000 a month margin. You could even extend the metaphor to a job that paid $8,000 every two months or one that paid $48,000 a year without confusing too many people. The same dynamic applies to video poker, it is simply harder to see because of the obfuscating effect randomness has on results.

Try this trick, imagine what if I always played high progressives?

In order to do this mental exercise you'll need two data points:

1.You need to know exactly how many jackpots you've hit in a period of time.
2.You need to know exactly what your losses were during this same period of time.

Notice I said "jackpots" not "Royal Flushes". You could use RF's as your experiment, but any hand will do as long as you remember exactly how many you got over a period of time. For instance, some progressives have meters for 4 Aces. One could play for high 4 Aces just as easily as they could for a high Royal. Progressives do not HAVE to be high on the RF to be playable. For this experiment I'm going to use RF's as an example.

OK so you've got your numbers. Now here's what to do with them to play the "what if I had played progressives" game.

1.Take your net loss and divide by the number of Jackpots you have hit.
2.Now add this amount to the reset value of the jackpot.
3.This is how high the JP would have needed to be for you to have broken-even.

Example:

In the last five years you've hit 10 Royals. You are also down $40,000 overall during that period.

$40,000 / 10 = $4,000

A Royal normally pays $4,000, so $4,000 + $4,000 = $8,000

Now imagine that you only played when the JP was over $12,000??? Same number of Royals, same losses, but because you got more for each of them a loss is magically transmuted into a win.

Another even easier way to consider, "what if I'd only played high progressives" would be to simply multiply all your jackpots by 3 and see if you'd still be down. At the very least, even if 3x wasn't enough to make you a winner overall, you'd be down a lot less. A LOT less.

Bigger is better.

You will not necessarily get more jackpots playing progressives, and you will have to take forced breaks from playing when someone hits the progressive (even if that's you), but when looked at from an equal amount of play you will be getting more for each jackpot.

I don't really recommend looking at the past as a predictor of the future, since obviously some people will have gotten more jackpots than they should have, and others will have gotten less. How many one should get is still the more important factor for making good decision in your future. The point of this exercise was to use actual results to illustrate the basic concepts for people that have difficulty thinking in terms of expectancy.

~FK

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[vpFREE] Re: Planned Vegas Trip

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Dave" <haaljo@...> wrote:
>
> "...And who remembers the Odyssey VP with the bonus feature on those machines?..."
>
> Bonus Round Video:
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wef5WVEs4Vc
>
>
Well, let's see how much I can remember about playing this game.

1. The game is called Bonus Playoff which you can see at the top of the screen in the video.

2. The payscale in the video is a rare 9/6 Bonus Playoff. Although, I do remember them being in New York, New York and Slots of Fun. The great majority of machines had 8/5 Bonus Playoff. In both versions it's a "two pair even money" game.....and it's also a 5 coin game. The great majority of plays came off the 8/5 Bonus Playoff.

3. The game is a classic example of how a low bankroll could get a big edge and a big hourly rate. As an old buddy, Bill Hartman, used to say, it's "dollar money for playing quarter video poker."

4. The Oddyssey machines came out in 1997/98. They were all over Las Vegas, Laughlin, Reno and Tahoe.

5. I wasn't computerized back then and still going thru the learning curve of video poker, but I had a collection of books and articles. The consensus with the gurus was 8/5 Jacks was 97.3%, and two-pair represented 12.9% of the payback, so I put the base game at 84.4%.

6. It was easy enough to clock the meter, which started at 75 coins. It took 80 coins in action to put 5 coins in the meter. That's 6.25%. So I knew the game was somewhere above 90.65%.

7. The rest of the payback had to be determined by how often the Bonus Card came out and what my chances were of winning the showdown hand.

8. There were three characters that you rotated playing, The Riverboat Captain, The Riverboat Gambler, and the Dance Hall Girl. I'll use the Dance Hall Girl in this post.

9. I had no inside information on how often the Bonus Card came out. All I could do was count the number of hands I played using the progressive meter itself, 16 games put 5 coins in the meter. And I also counted the number of times the Bonus Card came out to get the average. I kept a log in my pocket notebook. I started out playing high numbers, high 200's. Eventually, as the sample space kept getting bigger and bigger, I put the frequency of catching the Bonus Card at 140.

10. The player in the video started filming after he caught the Bonus Card. You can see it on the left just above the meter. When you hit the deal button you are dealt five cards. If one of those cards is the Bonus Card, then it removes itself to just above the meter and another card is drawn to complete the five card hand. When you finish the hand then you play the showdown hand.

11. I put my chances in the showdown hand at 50/50 only if I could play the hand as good as the Dance Hall Girl. It took some observation, mathwork and practice to get up to speed.

12. The showdown hand was 5 card draw, one hand, winner take all. The Dance Hall Girl never drew more than three cards. If you look at the video you'll see that when she draws three cards the #1,#3,and #5 cards are removed. The replacement cards go into the same position. So when her hand was revealed I would be looking at the #2 and #4 cards to see what she held.

13. In the showdown hand it is about 50/50 that you will be dealt a no pair hand. Initially I was holding one high card like an Ace. I wasn't having a whole lot of luck doing that. I started mimicking the Dance Hall Girl and holding 2 high cards, even off suit. Hands like AK, AQ, etc. I eventually did the math and the chances of improving to a pair or better holding one card was about 33%, while holding 2 high cards, the chances of improving to a pair or better was 38%.

14. The Dance Hall Girl also held an Ace kicker with a pair. I started doing the same but was somewhat befuddled by it. Holding just the pair the chances to improve to two pair or trips was 27%, holding the kicker with the pair, the chances to improve to 2 pair of trips was 25%. But when you improve to 2 pair it's most likely Aces Up which is the boss two pair. I eventually concluded that I could play the showdown hand as good as the Dance Hall Girl.

15. So the average play was 280 games (140 X 2). With 15 bets already in the meter at preset, that added another 5.36%. So it was a 96% game. And now it was easy to determine a playable number. I wanted a 6% edge. If I found a machine with 215 coins in the meter it was exactly a 6% edge. This left a 3.5% edge without the Royal or Straight Flush. I often found meters way higher than 215. The highest I ever found was 565.

16. If you look at the video you will see that the game plays extremely slow. And every 16 games you have to wait while the dealer flips another 5 coins in the meter. It was all I could do to get out 8 hands a minute. But it was still a big hourly rate. At 215 coins the game was worth $36 an hour.

17. Later, when Charles Lund's book, "Robbing The One-Armed Bandits" came out, he put the frequency of catching the Bonus Card at 133. But I have no clue where he derived this information.

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Re: [vpFREE] Harrah's AC Hosts

Seems to me he updated us just a few days ago about his having started off
the New Year on the "Right" foot.

On Mon, Feb 6, 2012 at 1:40 PM, Richard Long <carlboy101@yahoo.com> wrote:

> **
>
>
> Speaking of Harrah's AC.....where's Coach? Has he an Heddy stopped playing
> or are they losing?
>
> I miss his tales.
>
>
> ________________________________
> From: agonpd <agonpd@gmail.com>
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Monday, February 6, 2012 10:46 AM
> Subject: [vpFREE] Harrah's AC Hosts
>
>
>
>
>
> I asked this a while ago, but there have been so many host changes, that I
> thought I would ask again. Does anyone have or know of a personable,
> responsive host at Harrah's AC, one that isn't afraid to use email? Thanks
> for any guidance you can provide.
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

------------------------------------

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[vpFREE] Re: Shackleford's top parlay on GWAE

 

Also, people generally can't exploit the bet too much, since even sharp betters don't particularly like the idea of locking up a bunch of their bankroll for a small return, not to mention the hassle of cashing the ticket. As it is, if I wanted to make the bet at -1300, assuming Shackleford's numbers are accurate, it would have been a $27 EV bet for every $1000 I had to lay out, and win $77 at best. I also knew it was -1100 at Stations casinos, and even though I wasn't going to be able to get back there, I didn't want to bet Caesar's crappier spread.

By the way, I think that the common "First Score" is a Safety prop bet may have been closer to 50:1.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Kamango_" <vetsen@...> wrote:
>
> I haven't independently calculated it, but I'd expect if M.S. was using 19:1 as the true odds it's because that's the ratio for all NFL games going back for something like 10 years.
>
> The books offer 1:10 because the general public is happy to bet the 'yes' at 7:1 due to A) they don't know the true odds, and B) they like to bet rare events with big payoffs.
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@> wrote:
> >
> > It makes me skeptical that the true odds are 19 to 1. What is that
> > based on and why do the sports books offer such a supposedly
> > ridiculous overlay?
> >
> > johnnyzee wrote:
> >
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Resorts AC

 

I went with a friend a couple week's ago. The boothling said if they lost a hundred bucks, they'd get a mailer for free slot play. But they broke even, so no voucher.
 
Ned C.
The Wild Joker

________________________________
From: Scot Krause <krauseinvegas@cox.net>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, February 6, 2012 1:01 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Resorts AC

 
Does anyone have any details on the $100 new member sign-up rebate
promotion? How it works? Thanks for any help. Nothing on their website
except "visit the booth."

Scot

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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