[vpFREE] Re: The Dice Challenge

 

I have my own one die game I like to play. As you know, the odds of rolling a 2 with one die is 5 to 1 against. However, I think I can roll a 2 in four rolls. I'm taking all comers for any stakes that fit my bankroll. Yes, I know I will be taking way the worst of it but I guess maybe I'm getting bored and just want some action. This will be a prime opportunity for someone to lift a ton of dough off me.

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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Re: The Dice Challenge

 

This is similar to the famous Monte Hall problem where contestants are given the chance to select a different door after additional information is revealed (door 2 is opened to reveal a goat). A famous mathematician would not accept that it is correct to switch doors based on the new information on door 2.

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[vpFREE] Re: The Dice Challenge

 


No aspersion cast ... but when "snap" judgement is off, I'm inclined to look for a cause ;)

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mickeycrimm@...> wrote :

I'm not a big beer or ale fan. I just use them for chasers. In the course of an evening at the bar I might consume just 2 beers but will down about 20 shots of Black Velvet. And contrary to popular opinion I'm not a full time drunk. I'm in the middle of my bi-monthly road trip so haven't touched the stuff for some days. I never touch the stuff on roadtrips. I don't have ant time for leisure. I just want to get into the towns, get the money and go back home. A typical roadtrip is 2 to three weeks.


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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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[vpFREE] Re: The Dice Challenge

 

I'm not a big beer or ale fan. I just use them for chasers. In the course of an evening at the bar I might consume just 2 beers but will down about 20 shots of Black Velvet. And contrary to popular opinion I'm not a full time drunk. I'm in the middle of my bi-monthly road trip so haven't touched the stuff for some days. I never touch the stuff on roadtrips. I don't have ant time for leisure. I just want to get into the towns, get the money and go back home. A typical roadtrip is 2 to three weeks.

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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Re: Dice Challenge

 

If you were to reroll the second die it would be 1 6. The partner peeking under the cup and announcing that at least one of the dice is a two is extraneous information. It's totally useless.

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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Dice Challenge

 

When you look and see that and one of the dice has a two, it is 5/1 that
the other is a two

The 10/1 is prior to looking at the dice

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Posted by: Richard Gordon <theolflash@gmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Re: The Dice Challenge

 


Mickey ... you left out a key detail: How many Moose Drools had you consumed that day?

The standard setup of any probability is the you determine how many elements meet the desired condition, and how many are in the stated population.

For 2 dice, there are 11 configurations that have at least one two; only one of these are both twos.

< Of course Michael's prop is the more interesting aspect of your story! >

- H.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mickeycrimm@...> wrote :

You have two dice in a cup. You shake them up then slam the cup down on the table. Your partner peeks under the cup and says "at least one of the dice is a two." What is the probability that the other dice is a two? This question was proposed in a thread at WoV. My first thought was it's 1 in 6. But a heavy debate broke out and the strong math guys said it was 1 in 11. How could that be I asked myself. So I sat down with pencil and paper and figured it out. Sure enough it was 1 in 11.



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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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[vpFREE] The Dice Challenge

 

You have two dice in a cup. You shake them up then slam the cup down on the table. Your partner peeks under the cup and says "at least one of the dice is a two." What is the probability that the other dice is a two? This question was proposed in a thread at WoV. My first thought was it's 1 in 6. But a heavy debate broke out and the strong math guys said it was 1 in 11. How could that be I asked myself. So I sat down with pencil and paper and figured it out. Sure enough it was 1 in 11.


But there was a large faction in the thread that insisted it was 1 in 6. Then the Wizard of Odds jumped in the thread and said he would take all comers for any stakes and played them as long as they liked. Anytime at least one of the dice is a two, if the other die is a two then the Wz would pay them 9 bets. If the other die wasn't a two then they would just have to pay him one bet.


Alan Mendelsen, a strong proponent of 1 in 6, insisted the Wiz would get his clock cleaned in such a game. The Wiz told him to put his money where his mouth is. Alan objected to gambling with other individuals on moral grounds. So the Wiz made a new proposal. When at least 1 of the dice is a two, if the other die is a two Alan would be awarded 8 points. If the other die wasn't a 2 the Wiz would be awarded 1 point. The first person to get to 25 points wins and the loser has to buy lunch.


Alan accepted the challenge and believes he will win the bet. I thought this was some brilliant hustling by the Wiz. I've never really given him any credit for street smarts until now. If Alan rolls the hard 4 three times he will only hae 24 points. He will have to roll it one more time to win.


My advice to the Wiz. Never give a sucker an even break. Order the most expensive thing on the menu.

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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 26 MAY 2015

 

Bob Dancer's LVA - 26 MAY 2015

Almost

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/0526.cfm

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Posted by: vpFREE3355 <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Re: winpoker results

 

First, Harry and JohnZ, thanks for the nice comments about Dunbar's Risk Analyzer 2.0. (Harry and John were kind enough to be beta-testers.)

To answer bornloser's question: yes, you need a Windows based Excel. It won't work on a Mac.


It has not been released yet, because I'm still cleaning up a few appearance-related things. But it will be released sometime this summer for sure, or at least as "for sure" as any software prediction can be.


DRA-VP 2.0 will do the things Harry and JohnZ mentioned except that it will not be able to analyze UX games. I'll hold off on describing all the new features until it's ready to roll.


Thanks for the interest!


--Dunbar


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote :

reply interspersed as >> text <<

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote :

Harry,

The 4 royals have come on 4 different dealt hands. I believe 2 were from RF3 and 2 were from RF4 but I didn't track it. I have had 2 sets of deuces from a dealt hand either once or twice. No dealt deuces.

Up to 117.44% after 4944 dealt hands ( 49440 total hands).

>> Fascinating. Still no reason to expect a non-random result on a relatively short trial, of course. You can only hope for a similar session in the casino ;) <<

This includes breaking up a dealt WRF with 3 deuces and not filling in any of them.

>> Ouch?? (I'm not referring to the sour luck ... I've little doubt that you know it's a close call to breaking dealt 5k in FPDW, and a no-go in NSUD. So I assume that this was a momentary lapse into "ducks lust" ;)

The ER hit from session errors likely ran to 0.2% or higher ... that should have caught your eye with some concern (but I'm bordering on self-righteousness here ...) <<


The 'Best Return' is 26448 ( from the Error Effect On Total Return section of Winpoker). That means my average dealt hand is worth 1.06999 which means I am getting dealt monster starting hands and then filling them in way more than expected.

This has given me a couple of ideas for features in the next DRA release. And Harry, to answer your question about DRA multiline release, I was doing some beta testing. The finished product isn't out yet.

>> Got ya. Just making sure I hadn't been "asleep at the wheel" on the release (which I understand will likely be timed sometime early this summer)

The added multiline analytics to DRA (along with the offer to tailor up to 5 game paytables for registered users (which can include games such as STP or (I believe) UX, makes this inexpensive tool and outstanding addition the the arsenal of any serious player who desires to get their hands firmly around a game's bankroll risk.

(Again, I'll note that this tool is used in conjunction with an existing MS Excel install) <<

- H.

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Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com
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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's Slot Club Spotlight - 26 MAY 2015

 

Scot Krause's Slot Club Spotlight - 26 MAY 2015

The Club at South Point keeps it simple

http://gamingtoday.com/articles/article/54022-The_Club_at_South_Point_keeps_it_simple#.VWR30_lVhBc

or

http://goo.gl/v4WoQx

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of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
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Posted by: vpFREE3355 <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's Real Deals - 26 MAY 2015

 

Scot Krause's Real Deals - 26 MAY 2015

Palms offers May Money Madness

http://gamingtoday.com/articles/article/54008-Palms_offers_May_Money_Madness#.VWR3VflVhBc

or

http://goo.gl/RIIE76

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

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Posted by: vpFREE3355 <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Re: winpoker results

 

>>Hope that's a typo.

Never mind. I assumed you were playing NSUD.

C

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Posted by: cmayhem@comcast.net
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