You have two dice in a cup. You shake them up then slam the cup down on the table. Your partner peeks under the cup and says "at least one of the dice is a two." What is the probability that the other dice is a two? This question was proposed in a thread at WoV. My first thought was it's 1 in 6. But a heavy debate broke out and the strong math guys said it was 1 in 11. How could that be I asked myself. So I sat down with pencil and paper and figured it out. Sure enough it was 1 in 11.
But there was a large faction in the thread that insisted it was 1 in 6. Then the Wizard of Odds jumped in the thread and said he would take all comers for any stakes and played them as long as they liked. Anytime at least one of the dice is a two, if the other die is a two then the Wz would pay them 9 bets. If the other die wasn't a two then they would just have to pay him one bet.
Alan Mendelsen, a strong proponent of 1 in 6, insisted the Wiz would get his clock cleaned in such a game. The Wiz told him to put his money where his mouth is. Alan objected to gambling with other individuals on moral grounds. So the Wiz made a new proposal. When at least 1 of the dice is a two, if the other die is a two Alan would be awarded 8 points. If the other die wasn't a 2 the Wiz would be awarded 1 point. The first person to get to 25 points wins and the loser has to buy lunch.
Alan accepted the challenge and believes he will win the bet. I thought this was some brilliant hustling by the Wiz. I've never really given him any credit for street smarts until now. If Alan rolls the hard 4 three times he will only hae 24 points. He will have to roll it one more time to win.
My advice to the Wiz. Never give a sucker an even break. Order the most expensive thing on the menu.
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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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