These were my favorite game, but when I visited last night they were gone. The change guy didn't know anything. Even though they weren't full-pay, I had a pretty good run on them.
James Thompson
Former HRH Las Vegas Casino Monitor
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I'm extremely impressed that everyone is on the right track.
For purposes of argument, I'm picking highway 95 north out of Las Vegas.
I'll do my full post on this subject in the morning. My back is acting up and typing at the computer is painful today.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, David Silvus <djsilvus@...> wrote:
>
>
> I figure you need to know the percentage of local vehicles vs. out of town vehicles that historically travel that particular stretch of road as well. If it's primarily locals, you could reduce the universe of sales stats geographically.
>
>
>
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> From: wha724@...
> Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2011 22:02:11 +0000
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest
>
>
>
>
>
>
> I'm guessing you'd need to know the average age of cars still operating, and sales stats by color for that many years. You could probably Google your way to reasonable odds in about 20 minutes. If your road is in Vegas or Orlando or some other vaaction mecca, you might have to adjust for all the white rental cars driving around.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > Indeed you might have, if you'd started your post with "Contest Entry". It's a small point, but nearly everyone forgot to do it.
> >
> > It's a near perfect analogy of when you don't want to look for patterns, because they will mislead you. And it's as concise and informative as we'd expect from a leading VP book author like yourself. It's always annoyed me that Dan could say in a paragraph, what it takes me a chapter to impart. Oh, well, I'm a better violinist.
> >
> > Just for fun, I'll include this in the short list I have for my impartial judges, and see if Dan would have won. Obviously, since Dan and I are friends I cannot award the prize to him. So if Dan does win I'll award the prize to second place.
> >
> > He also brings up an interesting question, "If you did want to bet on passing car color, what information WOULD be needed to lay odds?"
> >
> > I'll attempt to answer that in an upcoming post entitled, "Goldstien, and the 4 Bears' Fans"
> >
> > ~FK
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Now that the contest has closed, I'll submit my analogy.
> > >
> > > You're sitting by the side of the road where you can watch cars coming
> > > over the top of a hill one at a time. You see a red car, then a black
> > > car, a white car, a blue car, a black car, followed by the colors:
> > > Red
> > > Blue
> > > Black
> > > White
> > > White
> > > Black
> > > Green
> > > Silver
> > >
> > > Wow! There's an obvious pattern here. Every third car is black.
> > > Therefore, since there have been two cars since the last black car we
> > > can confidently predict that the next car will be black. We might even
> > > offer 2-to-1 odds on a bet that the next car will be black.
> > >
> > > If the next car happens to be black, the confidence in the pattern is
> > > reinforced, and we might offer even bigger odds on the third car coming.
> > > Does that sound like a sound bet?
> > >
> > > If it's not black, we might think, "Oh, oh, the pattern is changing,
> > > I'll have to look for the new pattern." At some point in time, the
> > > pattern will be broken. So what happened? Just as we tried to benefit
> > > from the pattern by betting on it, we lose. Similarly, if we are playing
> > > video poker and try to predict what cards will come on the draw and
> > > deviate from the strategy, all that we do is reduce the expected value.
> > >
> > > Frank, would I have won the contest?
> > > Dan Paymar
> > >
> > >
> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> > >
> >
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
thought this was a funny addition to dan's comments on random versus patterns
-----Original Message-----
From: jaywilly240 <wha724@comcast.net>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Jan 25, 2011 9:02 am
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest
I'm guessing you'd need to know the average age of cars still operating, and sales stats by color for that many years. You could probably Google your way to reasonable odds in about 20 minutes. If your road is in Vegas or Orlando or some other vaaction mecca, you might have to adjust for all the white rental cars driving around.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> Indeed you might have, if you'd started your post with "Contest Entry". It's a small point, but nearly everyone forgot to do it.
>
> It's a near perfect analogy of when you don't want to look for patterns, because they will mislead you. And it's as concise and informative as we'd expect from a leading VP book author like yourself. It's always annoyed me that Dan could say in a paragraph, what it takes me a chapter to impart. Oh, well, I'm a better violinist.
>
> Just for fun, I'll include this in the short list I have for my impartial judges, and see if Dan would have won. Obviously, since Dan and I are friends I cannot award the prize to him. So if Dan does win I'll award the prize to second place.
>
> He also brings up an interesting question, "If you did want to bet on passing car color, what information WOULD be needed to lay odds?"
>
> I'll attempt to answer that in an upcoming post entitled, "Goldstien, and the 4 Bears' Fans"
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@> wrote:
> >
> > Now that the contest has closed, I'll submit my analogy.
> >
> > You're sitting by the side of the road where you can watch cars coming
> > over the top of a hill one at a time. You see a red car, then a black
> > car, a white car, a blue car, a black car, followed by the colors:
> > Red
> > Blue
> > Black
> > White
> > White
> > Black
> > Green
> > Silver
> >
> > Wow! There's an obvious pattern here. Every third car is black.
> > Therefore, since there have been two cars since the last black car we
> > can confidently predict that the next car will be black. We might even
> > offer 2-to-1 odds on a bet that the next car will be black.
> >
> > If the next car happens to be black, the confidence in the pattern is
> > reinforced, and we might offer even bigger odds on the third car coming.
> > Does that sound like a sound bet?
> >
> > If it's not black, we might think, "Oh, oh, the pattern is changing,
> > I'll have to look for the new pattern." At some point in time, the
> > pattern will be broken. So what happened? Just as we tried to benefit
> > from the pattern by betting on it, we lose. Similarly, if we are playing
> > video poker and try to predict what cards will come on the draw and
> > deviate from the strategy, all that we do is reduce the expected value.
> >
> > Frank, would I have won the contest?
> > Dan Paymar
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
thought this was a funny addition to dan's comments on random versus patterns
-----Original Message-----
From: jaywilly240 <wha724@comcast.net>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Jan 25, 2011 9:02 am
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest
I'm guessing you'd need to know the average age of cars still operating, and sales stats by color for that many years. You could probably Google your way to reasonable odds in about 20 minutes. If your road is in Vegas or Orlando or some other vaaction mecca, you might have to adjust for all the white rental cars driving around.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> Indeed you might have, if you'd started your post with "Contest Entry". It's a small point, but nearly everyone forgot to do it.
>
> It's a near perfect analogy of when you don't want to look for patterns, because they will mislead you. And it's as concise and informative as we'd expect from a leading VP book author like yourself. It's always annoyed me that Dan could say in a paragraph, what it takes me a chapter to impart. Oh, well, I'm a better violinist.
>
> Just for fun, I'll include this in the short list I have for my impartial judges, and see if Dan would have won. Obviously, since Dan and I are friends I cannot award the prize to him. So if Dan does win I'll award the prize to second place.
>
> He also brings up an interesting question, "If you did want to bet on passing car color, what information WOULD be needed to lay odds?"
>
> I'll attempt to answer that in an upcoming post entitled, "Goldstien, and the 4 Bears' Fans"
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@> wrote:
> >
> > Now that the contest has closed, I'll submit my analogy.
> >
> > You're sitting by the side of the road where you can watch cars coming
> > over the top of a hill one at a time. You see a red car, then a black
> > car, a white car, a blue car, a black car, followed by the colors:
> > Red
> > Blue
> > Black
> > White
> > White
> > Black
> > Green
> > Silver
> >
> > Wow! There's an obvious pattern here. Every third car is black.
> > Therefore, since there have been two cars since the last black car we
> > can confidently predict that the next car will be black. We might even
> > offer 2-to-1 odds on a bet that the next car will be black.
> >
> > If the next car happens to be black, the confidence in the pattern is
> > reinforced, and we might offer even bigger odds on the third car coming.
> > Does that sound like a sound bet?
> >
> > If it's not black, we might think, "Oh, oh, the pattern is changing,
> > I'll have to look for the new pattern." At some point in time, the
> > pattern will be broken. So what happened? Just as we tried to benefit
> > from the pattern by betting on it, we lose. Similarly, if we are playing
> > video poker and try to predict what cards will come on the draw and
> > deviate from the strategy, all that we do is reduce the expected value.
> >
> > Frank, would I have won the contest?
> > Dan Paymar
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "patlives" <patlives@...> wrote:
>
> On the machine listing for Four Queens it says that
> there are 12 uprights with 9/7 DB on them that are
> progressive quads only for .5 and .25. Are these
> machines linked with the bar progressives? Also is
> there 9/6 DDB on these like the bars??
I'm familiar with this bank of machines. I wasn't sure about the DDB, so I looked at them today. The DDB is 9/5 not 9/6 in all denominations.
The 25c 9/7 DB progressive on this bank is not linked to the progressive at the bars. The quads on these were $231, $106 and $66. Immediately after that I looked at the the same progressives on the three bars and they were $213, $100 and $63.
While I was there I confirmed all the other entries for the Four Queens in vpFREE2. I found a few things to add which I will report to them.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, David Silvus <djsilvus@...> wrote:
>
>
> I figure you need to know the percentage of local vehicles vs. out of >town vehicles that historically travel that particular stretch of road >as well. If it's primarily locals, you could reduce the universe of >sales stats geographically.
>
>
>
Amarillo Slim or Titanic Thompson would already have a road scoped out to set up a sucker. The road would be a main artery for some big factory at shift change. But the factory would be out of sight of where the hustler and his mark sit and make their bets. And, of course, Slim or Titanic would already know the stats on the color of cars coming out of the factory.
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: wha724@comcast.net
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2011 22:02:11 +0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest
I'm guessing you'd need to know the average age of cars still operating, and sales stats by color for that many years. You could probably Google your way to reasonable odds in about 20 minutes. If your road is in Vegas or Orlando or some other vaaction mecca, you might have to adjust for all the white rental cars driving around.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> Indeed you might have, if you'd started your post with "Contest Entry". It's a small point, but nearly everyone forgot to do it.
>
> It's a near perfect analogy of when you don't want to look for patterns, because they will mislead you. And it's as concise and informative as we'd expect from a leading VP book author like yourself. It's always annoyed me that Dan could say in a paragraph, what it takes me a chapter to impart. Oh, well, I'm a better violinist.
>
> Just for fun, I'll include this in the short list I have for my impartial judges, and see if Dan would have won. Obviously, since Dan and I are friends I cannot award the prize to him. So if Dan does win I'll award the prize to second place.
>
> He also brings up an interesting question, "If you did want to bet on passing car color, what information WOULD be needed to lay odds?"
>
> I'll attempt to answer that in an upcoming post entitled, "Goldstien, and the 4 Bears' Fans"
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@> wrote:
> >
> > Now that the contest has closed, I'll submit my analogy.
> >
> > You're sitting by the side of the road where you can watch cars coming
> > over the top of a hill one at a time. You see a red car, then a black
> > car, a white car, a blue car, a black car, followed by the colors:
> > Red
> > Blue
> > Black
> > White
> > White
> > Black
> > Green
> > Silver
> >
> > Wow! There's an obvious pattern here. Every third car is black.
> > Therefore, since there have been two cars since the last black car we
> > can confidently predict that the next car will be black. We might even
> > offer 2-to-1 odds on a bet that the next car will be black.
> >
> > If the next car happens to be black, the confidence in the pattern is
> > reinforced, and we might offer even bigger odds on the third car coming.
> > Does that sound like a sound bet?
> >
> > If it's not black, we might think, "Oh, oh, the pattern is changing,
> > I'll have to look for the new pattern." At some point in time, the
> > pattern will be broken. So what happened? Just as we tried to benefit
> > from the pattern by betting on it, we lose. Similarly, if we are playing
> > video poker and try to predict what cards will come on the draw and
> > deviate from the strategy, all that we do is reduce the expected value.
> >
> > Frank, would I have won the contest?
> > Dan Paymar
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
------------------------------------
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I'm guessing you'd need to know the average age of cars still operating, and sales stats by color for that many years. You could probably Google your way to reasonable odds in about 20 minutes. If your road is in Vegas or Orlando or some other vaaction mecca, you might have to adjust for all the white rental cars driving around.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> Indeed you might have, if you'd started your post with "Contest Entry". It's a small point, but nearly everyone forgot to do it.
>
> It's a near perfect analogy of when you don't want to look for patterns, because they will mislead you. And it's as concise and informative as we'd expect from a leading VP book author like yourself. It's always annoyed me that Dan could say in a paragraph, what it takes me a chapter to impart. Oh, well, I'm a better violinist.
>
> Just for fun, I'll include this in the short list I have for my impartial judges, and see if Dan would have won. Obviously, since Dan and I are friends I cannot award the prize to him. So if Dan does win I'll award the prize to second place.
>
> He also brings up an interesting question, "If you did want to bet on passing car color, what information WOULD be needed to lay odds?"
>
> I'll attempt to answer that in an upcoming post entitled, "Goldstien, and the 4 Bears' Fans"
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@> wrote:
> >
> > Now that the contest has closed, I'll submit my analogy.
> >
> > You're sitting by the side of the road where you can watch cars coming
> > over the top of a hill one at a time. You see a red car, then a black
> > car, a white car, a blue car, a black car, followed by the colors:
> > Red
> > Blue
> > Black
> > White
> > White
> > Black
> > Green
> > Silver
> >
> > Wow! There's an obvious pattern here. Every third car is black.
> > Therefore, since there have been two cars since the last black car we
> > can confidently predict that the next car will be black. We might even
> > offer 2-to-1 odds on a bet that the next car will be black.
> >
> > If the next car happens to be black, the confidence in the pattern is
> > reinforced, and we might offer even bigger odds on the third car coming.
> > Does that sound like a sound bet?
> >
> > If it's not black, we might think, "Oh, oh, the pattern is changing,
> > I'll have to look for the new pattern." At some point in time, the
> > pattern will be broken. So what happened? Just as we tried to benefit
> > from the pattern by betting on it, we lose. Similarly, if we are playing
> > video poker and try to predict what cards will come on the draw and
> > deviate from the strategy, all that we do is reduce the expected value.
> >
> > Frank, would I have won the contest?
> > Dan Paymar
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>
So lets say that you are playing a 9/6 JOB and all the machines in the area have the same pay structure. Despite all machines having the same pay schedule. How many people have their favorite machine(s) that they feel gives them more action?
Now that I have been in Vegas just over 2 months I have found my self slipping into the favorite machine attitude. This morning I walked up to a bank of 6 machines and my "favorite machine" (because I have hit several 4 of a kinds on it this month)was being used. I waited for a while but the person there was in for the long hall. So I sat a different machine to get my points play for the day. I walked out disappointed in my loss of $1(despite all the points that I earned)and mumbled to myself if I was on my machine it would have been up, not down. I sat in my car and laughed at myself. How do we get this way?
Indeed you might have, if you'd started your post with "Contest Entry". It's a small point, but nearly everyone forgot to do it.
It's a near perfect analogy of when you don't want to look for patterns, because they will mislead you. And it's as concise and informative as we'd expect from a leading VP book author like yourself. It's always annoyed me that Dan could say in a paragraph, what it takes me a chapter to impart. Oh, well, I'm a better violinist.
Just for fun, I'll include this in the short list I have for my impartial judges, and see if Dan would have won. Obviously, since Dan and I are friends I cannot award the prize to him. So if Dan does win I'll award the prize to second place.
He also brings up an interesting question, "If you did want to bet on passing car color, what information WOULD be needed to lay odds?"
I'll attempt to answer that in an upcoming post entitled, "Goldstien, and the 4 Bears' Fans"
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@...> wrote:
>
> Now that the contest has closed, I'll submit my analogy.
>
> You're sitting by the side of the road where you can watch cars coming
> over the top of a hill one at a time. You see a red car, then a black
> car, a white car, a blue car, a black car, followed by the colors:
> Red
> Blue
> Black
> White
> White
> Black
> Green
> Silver
>
> Wow! There's an obvious pattern here. Every third car is black.
> Therefore, since there have been two cars since the last black car we
> can confidently predict that the next car will be black. We might even
> offer 2-to-1 odds on a bet that the next car will be black.
>
> If the next car happens to be black, the confidence in the pattern is
> reinforced, and we might offer even bigger odds on the third car coming.
> Does that sound like a sound bet?
>
> If it's not black, we might think, "Oh, oh, the pattern is changing,
> I'll have to look for the new pattern." At some point in time, the
> pattern will be broken. So what happened? Just as we tried to benefit
> from the pattern by betting on it, we lose. Similarly, if we are playing
> video poker and try to predict what cards will come on the draw and
> deviate from the strategy, all that we do is reduce the expected value.
>
> Frank, would I have won the contest?
> Dan Paymar
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
> And what is the #6 Urinal?
>
This is where the problem lies. The third urinal from the left is the lucky one!
Kurt
Frank, did you happen to play dollar 10/7 Double Bonus Four-Play on an old Oddyssey machine at the Pioneer in Laughlin? I think it was about 2002. The guy I seen playing that machine looked an awful lot like you. Whoever that guy was I was told he flopped a royal and it killed the play.
