[vpFREE] Re: Down $10k on a 100% .25 denom vp game

 

Yes, that is correct.



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote :


Wait.   I just realized that you're measuring something different.   Are you saying that at some point during the million hands you reached a point that was $10,000 less than your highest point before that?    That could explain your higher figures.    I'm measuring a $10,000 loss from zero, and you're measuring a $10,000 drop from some previous high point, right?

--Dunbar

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Posted by: bobbartop@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Re: Down $10k on a 100% .25 denom vp game

 

I'm skeptical, too, Bob.   I just ran 1000 trials of a million hands, and just 28% of them went $10,000 negative during the million hands.


It could be something other than your RNG resetting at the start.   It could be that the cycle time is insufficient for the quantity of random numbers you need.   

Or, assuming my number is roughly correct, your 4-in-a-row could just be a random 0.6% event!

Wait.   I just realized that you're measuring something different.   Are you saying that at some point during the million hands you reached a point that was $10,000 less than your highest point before that?    That could explain your higher figures.    I'm measuring a $10,000 loss from zero, and you're measuring a $10,000 drop from some previous high point, right?

--Dunbar


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bobbartop@...> wrote :

NOTI, I didn't get the same end results.  It was just that somewhere during each million hands there was a 40,000 coin downswing.  The end results were quite different.


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote :

I'm suspicious that you got the same results each time, it's possible of course, but it's also possible that the software you were using reset the pseudo random number generator and seeded it the same way every time, which would give you the same result. There's a lot of problems with PRNG's.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandom_number_generator#Potential_problems_with_deterministic_generators

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[vpFREE] Re: Poll results for vpFREE

 

FWIW the annual results poll is put up each year a couple of weeks after the year's close and has always been announced via a vpFREE post.  The post includes a direct link to the poll.  (You can also review all polls by clicking on "More" at the top of any vpFREE page then selecting "Polls").  It remains open for responses until the following year's poll is up.



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <slutoo@...> wrote :

I'll answer for myself, but suspect it applies to some others. I've read this group daily for 10+ years and do not remember ever seeing an actual Poll before. I don't have a clue how to find and complete the poll, other than to read the post and conversational replies to the post.  Secondly, it will a couple of more months before I have gathered and compiled all my records for 2016, so I couldn't fill out the 2016 poll even if it was easy to find.


Dave

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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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[vpFREE] Re: Down $10k on a 100% .25 denom vp game

 

The strategy change (2 SF gap 1) you suggest if fairly insignificant (I'd guess < 0.02%)

So you're talking about a sustained 10% loss over approx 80k hands.  Without doing the footwork, sounds like a rarer than 1% outcome.  DJ is moderately volatile, x-RF hits -- not nearly the beast that DDB is. 

VP for Winners (assuming it handles DJ) has a nice feature that will give you a histogram of win/loss outcomes for a specified number of hands.  (Unfortunately, my installed download is fried and I haven't taken time out to secure a fix.)



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <stut70@...> wrote :

"Assuming you're playing correctly, it depends how many hands you've played.   At 600 hands/hour...

after 100 hours, 60,000 hands, not one in 2000 trials was ever more than $10K behind, and none finished more than $6K behind."

Played about 125hrs @ around 650 hands/hr.

I deviated from the wizardofodds strategy in 1 way:
I held any suited one gap.
ie: 57 suited

the strategy sheet says only hold 1 gap if it's 8T suited or higher.
ie: 8t, 9j

I found that odd to only hold high 1 gappers.
How much is it costing me to hold all suited 1 gappers?

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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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[vpFREE] Re: Down $10k on a 100% .25 denom vp game

 

NOTI, I didn't get the same end results.  It was just that somewhere during each million hands there was a 40,000 coin downswing.  The end results were quite different.



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote :

I'm suspicious that you got the same results each time, it's possible of course, but it's also possible that the software you were using reset the pseudo random number generator and seeded it the same way every time, which would give you the same result. There's a lot of problems with PRNG's.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandom_number_generator#Potential_problems_with_deterministic_generators

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Posted by: bobbartop@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Re: Down $10k on a 100% .25 denom vp game

 

BBT wrote: "I just set up the same details you're working with and ran four quick simulations of a million hands each.  In EACH sim, the bankroll took a dive of 40,000 or more coins.  At quarters, that was at least a $10K downswing each time.  Four out of four.  Of course, the return is only 100.14%, so it's a 100% game, that is true, but that's all it is.  I didn't add any cashback."

I'm suspicious that you got the same results each time, it's possible of course, but it's also possible that the software you were using reset the pseudo random number generator and seeded it the same way every time, which would give you the same result. There's a lot of problems with PRNG's.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandom_number_generator#Potential_problems_with_deterministic_generators

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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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Re: All gamblers are winners, LOL, was Re: [vpFREE] Poll results for vpFREE

 

BTW, I didn't vote in the poll.  It was over with before I even knew it was going on.  Bob, you and Bonnie should take a Montana vacation. Summertime, dude.  I don't think you would like the winters.  I'll be glad to meet up with you and show you what i do. I can show you games that no one else on the planet exploits but me.  I think you would have a great appreciation of it.

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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Re: Princess cruises for stations

 

This happened to us on our last Princess trip.

The Casino Mgr. said he had no information on our comps.

When we got home we found out we had not used the correct phone number

for the reservation, therefore no records on file...live & learn.

On the other hand...LOL...we did a Princess cruise back in 2014 out of Houston,

and in our cabin we found a Casino invite with play comps of $150.00 + drinks +

free tournaments invites and one special restaurant dinner. We were told that

it had been arranged at the time of our reservation. We had booked that cruise

via our regular travel agent...Go figure!

Just maybe it was a mistake? We'll never know!

John

 

Sent from Outlook

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Posted by: John Hunady <johnhunady@hotmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Re: Poll results for vpFREE

 

I'll answer for myself, but suspect it applies to some others. I've read this group daily for 10+ years and do not remember ever seeing an actual Poll before. I don't have a clue how to find and complete the poll, other than to read the post and conversational replies to the post.  Secondly, it will a couple of more months before I have gathered and compiled all my records for 2016, so I couldn't fill out the 2016 poll even if it was easy to find.  To be honest, I don't even try to look at the winning pictures anymore because (at least on my computer), I can no longer view them and the comments anymore. A year or two ago they changed how they display and as I recall when I try to view they kind of float around and by and I can't see comments either anymore, so I quit trying a long time ago.


Dave

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Posted by: slutoo@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Re: Down $10k on a 100% .25 denom vp game

 

"Assuming you're playing correctly, it depends how many hands you've played.   At 600 hands/hour...


after 100 hours, 60,000 hands, not one in 2000 trials was ever more than $10K behind, and none finished more than $6K behind."

Played about 125hrs @ around 650 hands/hr.

I deviated from the wizardofodds strategy in 1 way:
I held any suited one gap.
ie: 57 suited

the strategy sheet says only hold 1 gap if it's 8T suited or higher.
ie: 8t, 9j

I found that odd to only hold high 1 gappers.
How much is it costing me to hold all suited 1 gappers?

__._,_.___
Posted by: stut70@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Re: Down $10k on a 100% .25 denom vp game

 

Assuming you're playing correctly, it depends how many hands you've played.   At 600 hands/hour...


after 100 hours, 60,000 hands, not one in 2000 trials was ever more than $10K behind, and none finished more than $6K behind.

after 200 hours, 120,000 hands, not one in 2000 trials was ever $10K behind, but 2 out of the 2000 trials finished more than $8K behind.

after 400 hours, 240,000 hands, 47 out of 2000 trials were behind at least $10K at some point.  2.35%.
Same, but with 0.2% error rate ($1.50/hour) jumped the number to 74.    3.7%.

after 800 hours, 480,000 hands, 234 out of 2000 trials were behind at least $10K at some point.  12%.

All calcs done with Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0.

--Dunbar


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <stut70@...> wrote :

double joker progressive with $2k Royal reset.

1-2-3-4-5-8-25-50-100-1600


im down $10k aka 5 royals. :(

I'm using the strategy maker from wizard of odds site: https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/calculator/

I set the Royal at 1700 coins ($2100).


How bad am I running?

must be  at least 3 stand deviations?

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Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com
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