[vpFREE] Re: Church Team's results might meet statistical expectation

 

NOTI wrote: "While the N0 for flatbetting blackjack is low, for card counting and spread betting, it is not."


NO for flatbetting blackjack will obviously depend on the EV, and the NO can be large for someone trying to play a small edge game.   

NO for card counting is not necessarily large, especially not by VP standards.   An 1-8 spread in a double-deck game with good rules will have NO of about 27,000 hands, even if you bet 8 units off the top after every shuffle.

--Dunbar
 

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[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 20 JUN 2014

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 20 JUN 2014

Palms Tier-Matching Promo

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=3537

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Posted by: vpFREE3355 <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Re: Church Team's results might meet statistical expectation

 

   Almost every statistical measure for gambling assumes 100% reinvestment of all profits.   Risk of Ruin and maximum possible downswings are highly dependent on the frequency of win distributions.   Distribute profits too quickly or frequently and the investors are basically getting free-rolled by their players in the current bank and by the investors in the previous banks.     The key to success in any team banking arrangement is having relatively infrequent final distributions to assure that the team gets very solidly into the long run so that  at least 50% of the downswings occur while the team is substantially ahead rather than only while even or behind.      

The solutions are always one of two:   1> Very infrequent distributions of profits and/or 2> Playing to a virtually 0.0% risk of ruin either through gigantic bet to bank ratio OR very frequent proactive downsizing of betting during downswings.  (rather than waiting to lose 50% of the bank you should downsize after 25% and then not resize back up until at least 66.7% of the loss has been recovered). 

While this is more of a blackjack off-topic,   the problem with VP is that going to a lower denomination and still playing the desired game for achieving coin-in and theoretical targets can be problematic.  

  

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[vpFREE] Re: Church Team's results might meet statistical expectation

 

I concur with saysitsme. I think that most APs of all stripes overestimate their edge, i.e. how good they are. It's not that they're playing a losing game, they just don't make enough allowance for the impact of errors and other factors that keep their return below the theoretical number. It seems like all I ever hear are laments about running bad. I don't think that Tommy Hyland was talking about theft, but about all the other leaks.

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Posted by: WRX <wrx144@gmail.com>
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