Re: [vpFREE] Re: Why I Post on this Forum

 

I agree too..love your posts Jean.

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From:"Pat McCauley kypat@aol.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Date:Sat, May 30, 2015 at 23:09
Subject:Re: [vpFREE] Re: Why I Post on this Forum

 

I agree

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> On May 30, 2015, at 10:40 PM, shhhhhhhhh@gmail.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
>
> Jean, you and your posts are greatly appreciated!
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Why I Post on this Forum

 

I agree

Sent from my iPad

> On May 30, 2015, at 10:40 PM, shhhhhhhhh@gmail.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
>
> Jean, you and your posts are greatly appreciated!
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Posted by: Pat McCauley <kypat@aol.com>
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[vpFREE] Re: Why I Post on this Forum

 

Jean, you and your posts are greatly appreciated!

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 26 MAY 2015

 

NOTI,
Who said anything about All American or USA? Did I miss something? I was referring to the short pay 8/5/1000/500 TBP+ QQ, which was what Bob mentioned in the article.

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 26 MAY 2015

 

"Watch out for this pay table on Five Star machines as well. I too was nearly fooled by it once."

IGT calls it USA Poker. All American is the Bally's name.

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 19 MAY 2015

 

Dan wrote: "So is it really a good idea to use variance for the Kelly calculation?
How about a Kelly calculation that uses the Sorokin RoR instead of
variance? Then you would have be best of both types of calculation."

The use of variance for Kelly is an approximation. You can get the exact Kelly number using a spreadsheet and taking the log of bankroll growth for each win, then finding the optimum bankroll by interation. It's a process similar to finding the ROR number, just different equations. Jazbo says the Kelly for AA is 3369 while I have solved the Kelly for FPDW as 2925 using the hand occurance numbers from the wizard. The advantage of using the approximation for the Kelly number (variance/edge) is that it can be calculated on the fly in your head.

I find both Kelly and ROR useful, Kelly of course for the Kelly system, while ROR answers the question of what are the odds of losing X amount of money, which is also useful in many situations.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 19 MAY 2015

 

007 wrote: "That's one of the problems with the Kelly Criterion, since it assumes
no outside source of income."

Other sources of income, or for that matter taking funds from the bankroll, can be modeled as changes to EV.

I already provided an example which was $5 double double I believe, which has a negative Kelly CE. As I explained, this cost to play has to come from somewhere. One possible source would be your day job, in effect, if you add from your day job to your bankroll at the rate of the negative CE, you would be at bankroll neutral. And of course if you add to your bankroll faster than it is depleted, you will grow your bankroll, nothing wrong with any of that.

007 wrote: "Going by one's "gut" has its dangers,
too, but most people who lack a sophisticated knowledge of the Kelly
Criterion, including me at least most of my life, have a reasonably
accurate idea of what overbetting means."

Isn't that just a survivor bias? You don't know of anyone who went broke from overbetting?

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[vpFREE] Why I Post on this Forum

 

I appreciate the information I have gotten from posts here for so many years – it has made my gambling so much more financially successful. Therefore, I like to share information that I have learned so others may perhaps become more financially successful in a casino too. I try to keep in mind that not all gamblers have the same goals, so I write a lot about more basic concepts as well as more advanced topics. I take into consideration that not everyone has been gambling – or studying about gambling - as long as I have (31 years) and there are many newbies on this list who need and want basic information and are happy to learn of more resources that are available. I never forget that I was once a green beginner myself and was so happy when I found writers who shared information to make my travel down the advantage lane much faster.

Another blessing – or perhaps a curse? – is that from the time I started school when I was 5 years old – can that be 71 years ago? – I thought being a teacher was the most glorious career a person could have. Teachers were my heroes. So I became a teacher – and it's hard – no, impossible! – to ever stop teaching.
------------------------------------------
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
UPDATED TAX BOOK
(Download 2015 eBook now)

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Posted by: "Queen of Comps" <queenofcomps@cox.net>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 19 MAY 2015

 

>noti said: "keep yourself from running out before you die, but most of us don't have monster bankrolls."
>
>I don't mean to argue. I just mean to bring up my own personal circumstance (and maybe the circumstance for a lot of "recreational" players). It is not that I have a "monster bankroll". It is just that I play in such a way that I have my bankroll replenished faster than it is drained. My "gambling bankroll" is a line item in my entertainment budget.

That's one of the problems with the Kelly Criterion, since it assumes
no outside source of income. Going by one's "gut" has its dangers,
too, but most people who lack a sophisticated knowledge of the Kelly
Criterion, including me at least most of my life, have a reasonably
accurate idea of what overbetting means.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 19 MAY 2015

 

noti said: "keep yourself from running out before you die, but most of us don't have monster bankrolls."

I don't mean to argue. I just mean to bring up my own personal circumstance (and maybe the circumstance for a lot of "recreational" players). It is not that I have a "monster bankroll". It is just that I play in such a way that I have my bankroll replenished faster than it is drained. My "gambling bankroll" is a line item in my entertainment budget.

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 26 MAY 2015

 

Watch out for this pay table on Five Star machines as well. I too was nearly fooled by it once.

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[vpFREE] Re: Horseshoe Baltimore "Legendary Gift" 6/7/15

 

Last time I think it was 25 but it may be 50 this time it did not specify in the email

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[vpFREE] Re: Horseshoe Baltimore "Legendary Gift" 6/7/15

 

thx!
Do you know what the freeplay value is?


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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 19 MAY 2015

 


nightoftheiguana2000
<mailto:nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com?subject=Re%3A%20Bob%20Dancer%27s%20LVA%20-%2019%20MAY%202015>

wrote:
"If your goal is bankroll growth with zero risk of ruin, keep your
bankroll over variance/edge/2 bets (or half the Kelly number if you know
it)."

Unfortunately, in the real world of casino play, there can be no such
thing as zero risk of ruin (RoR) with indefinite play because there is
always a minimum bet size, and it's possible for a long series of losses
to reduce your bankroll to that minimum bet. But also in the real world,
very few people keep their gambling bankroll completely separate from
their other funds. If you were to lose your gambling bankroll would you
quit gambling, or would you replenish it from other earnings?

Kelly can tell you what your optimum bet should be, but it can't make it
possible to bet less than the table/machine minimum. Sorokin won't tell
you directly what your bet size should be, but it can tell your RoR with
a given bet size, so if you can put a number on your emotional tolerance
of RoR then it can be used to find your optimum bet size. Don't forget
that the somewhat arbitrary division by 2 for Kelly is related to
emotional tolerance.

Also, variance is not a good indicator of risk. Consider these two games
which have roughly the same player advantage and variance:
Deuces Wild (full pay): ER=100.762% Variance=25.91 RoR=3.81%
All American Poker: ER=100.722% Variance=26.82 RoR=5.25%
In both cases, the RoR is per Sorokin assuming a starting bankroll of
5000 betting units (e.g., $25,000 on a 5-coin dollar machine). The
difference in RoR is much greater than might be suggested by the small
differences in ER and variance.

So is it really a good idea to use variance for the Kelly calculation?
How about a Kelly calculation that uses the Sorokin RoR instead of
variance? Then you would have be best of both types of calculation.

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Posted by: Dan Paymar <Dan@OptimumPlay.com>
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