A very nice and obviously concerned vpFREE poster emailed me yesterday, worried after she read a post by another couple about their impending trip to Vegas to play the M progressive, that the risk factor hasn't been discussed enough.
Here's the skinny: math says that roughly 62% of all the people that play a progressive will hit at least 1 Royal in a single cycle, and at M this almost undoubtedly means making money. But what about the other 38%.
The variance is very high on these games and playing them with insufficient bankroll is unwise. I favor a $20,000 BR for quarters which renders only about a 1 in 1000 chance of going through that bankroll without getting a Royal.
MOST that play these will do fine. Some will not. It's still gambling and there are very few sure things under a casino's roof.
A few weeks ago people were disputing the return of the games and I was so focused on this, perhaps I did not stress the variance enough.
Yes the variance is high. Yes the return is high, if you play when the JP is up. With enough BR and enough hands (1,000,000) the higher return more than makes up for the big swings.
Without enough BR and enough hands, Nancy Regan's advice on drugs might be applicable. Just say no.
Hope this satisfies your email and thank you for bringing it to my attention.
~FK
[vpFREE] Progressive Play Disclaimer
Re: [vpFREE] Games at M
" At South Point it is hard to find a machine on 2x point days. "
I've noticed that the pro game of choice at SP on 2x points day is $1 10
play DDB quick quads ( 99.7 ). At $60 per pull, whats the expected
profit per hour ?
regards....Tom
[vpFREE] Tunica Trip Report
Made my first trip to Tunica this weekend. Good video poker, bad everything
else.
I presented myself with a challenge: could I get DIAD with a bank roll of
only $1,000? My game of choice, the APDW which I (at one point) knew so
well. I used to play the APDW at Tamarack in Reno before they were pulled,
and I had since lost my ability to play. It is a game with quite a few
penalty situations (comparatively) and I forgot most of them.
I figured with a roll of $1,000, to get $30K in coin-in I would almost
certainly need a 4 deuces. My gambler's gut told me if I made the 4 deuces,
I would make DIAD and if I didn't, I would be short of my goal.
I leave after work and get there very late, blasting "Up On Cripple Creek"
by The Band (necessary mood music for southern gambling). Herein lies
problem 1: Mississippi. I had fully expected that the path to Tunica would
be clearly marked. I took US 78 a short ways and I was looking for MS 304 to
pull off. I saw no such sign and eventually entered Tennessee. (Looking at
my directions later, I realized I should have been looking at MS 309). I
quick detour found me on I-55/I-69 multiplex, with very clear directions
from there on how to get to Tunica.
So that's problem 1. Problems 2-25 are all Harrah's. I went on Harrah's
Parkway or something. My night vision must be poor, or I'm vitamin A
deficient, or *something* because I couldn't read any of the gosh darn
direction signs. Everything was very dark. I eventually find my way to what
I assumed was the casino/hotel. I park by the valet and wait. No one. No
problem, I go back to the parking lot, and look for the entrance for
registration. Nowhere to be found. So I walk over to the casino barge and
ask the gal who checks IDs where I'm supposed to check in. I had to go to
the second floor - no where does it say or give any indication that this was
the case.
I'm tired, and grumpy, especially with my Memphis detour, so I go back and
check in, eager to get to my room. "Oh no, sir, you are not at this hotel.
You are in the Terrace across the street." She gives me terse directions in
a less-than-friendly manner. I sighed as I left back to my car. I eventually
bumble through the blindness of light and find where I believe I am supposed
to go. I walk in, find the registration immediately. The clerk checks me in
in RECORD time (probably under 3 minutes), and I sleepwalk my way into my
room.
Room was okay. Not my bed preference. Old TVs, and older stuff in general. I
like sleeping with the TV on, but the volume was either waaaay too soft or
waaay to loud, with nothing in between (I've never experienced that before).
The refrigerator was loud. The cooling was subpar. I slept like a baby.
The next day, I wake up with the gigantic itch still unsatisfied. Time to
get gambling.
Now the other annoyance: you have to take a shuttle to the first casino, and
then another shuttle (which runs much less frequently) to the Roadhouse
casino. The Roadhouse is my ultimate goal as they had the APDW that I hold
so dearly.
At the first casino (I apologize, I forget what it's called - Harrah's
Tunica), I get a quick breakfast of junk food, a Red Bull, and get my total
rewards card. I mention I am going for DIAD which was ignored by the
boothling (I thought I had to declare my intentions or something). I put
through $200 playing 8/5 JoB at the bar and lose it in record time. I end up
with something like 60 points on the dollar denom (I was in it for the
drinks to loosen up). I'm thinking, "great, my roll is 20% gone and I'm
about 1% there."
I looked around Harrah's Tunica and their video poker coral especially. What
I saw was the most haphazard, bizarrely laid out floor I've ever seen. There
were, say, 4 DDB games on a bank, with no multi-denom or multi-game option.
And they would all be different. One would be a 9/6, next to it an 8/5/ next
to that a 9/5, etc. I've never seen anything like that.
In terms of "novelty" games (Action Gaming games specifically), across all
properties I saw only Super Times Pay, Ultimate X, and 3/5/10 plays in a
couple properties. There may have been a 50/100 sitting around Harrah's
Tunica, I don't remember.
Anyway, time for the main event. I take the shuttle to the Roadhouse. I poke
around for a while, play a little blackjack and break mostly even, get
another drink, etc. I eventually find the APDW. A warning! There's only 3
left. The bank of 6, on the other side, the 3 machines were 15/9. This
actually caught me and I didn't even notice.
I play and I'm doing remarkably well in the sense that I'm maintaining my
credits. I earn about 500 points or so with minimal to no loss yet and I
get my first
http://i.imgur.com/TPeMr.jpg
I realize at this point that it's too early to called it a "success." I
could very easily have a nasty run and I'd go busto without making DIAD. The
average person would be dejected, or apprehensive. Instead, a short time
later, I just decided to get another set of ducks:
http://i.imgur.com/bYxrr.jpg
So I was pretty healthy at this point and I was, frankly, getting tired of
playing VP. So I was going to play a $2 machine to help speed things along.
I still had 2000 points to go which was ... a depressing prospect at this
point. So I looked and there were NO $2 machines anywhere! I would have
played a (slightly) subpar table since I was confident enough that I would
make it.
So I go to casino cage and asked, "Can I go next door and get the rest of my
points." They had no idea and referred me to the hosts (which were also next
door). I went next door and asked the hosts, "Can I play off the rest of my
DIAD requirements here." I assumed I could but I just wanted to make sure.
They didn't know either. I was surprised that this doesn't come up more
frequently.
One gal was going to check their TR desk for the answer. While she was gone
I was chatting up the other gal. She had a general disparaging tone about
the Roadhouse, which I found interesting. She was saying things like, "If
you asked *here* we wouldn't have sent you away, we would have found the
answer for you."
The answer, it turns out, was no. I had to go back and finish it off at the
Roadhouse. Sigh...
So I play a little longer and then I have an idea - what about GameKing
Blackjack? There's a wall of GKs with Blackjack on it. In $1 denom, they are
10 coin max bet (in hindsight, I should have seen if the quarter were 100
coin max bet). I blew through like 600 hands in what seemed like no time,
which turns out to be ~700 points (because of splits and doubles). I was
literally betting $10 on a $100 buy in, and I ended up cashing even. With a
renewed vigor, I finished off the remaining points off of the APDW game,
without anything noteworthy. However, while I was playing, someone from
security or a host came up to me, verified my identity, and gave me a ticket
to the Diamond lounge. It was from the girls from the booth, presumably
because of my "inconvenience" which really wasn't much of one. It was a nice
gesture.
To celebrate my achievement, I go to the bar in the back for a few drinks. I
was playing 7/5 Bonus with a progressive (at about ~$1,200, obviously a huge
loser but I was in enjoyment mode at that time). I hit 4 aces w/kicker.
Unfortunately, not the most ideal game, and I was only playing quarters.
I headed off to the Diamond lounge. It seemed nice, free drinks. The
bartenders all seemed like they didn't want to be there. The clientele was
somewhat "rude" (in the sense they weren't friendly to the help). I hope
that dynamic isn't replicated everywhere. I'm looking forward to using the
Harvey's Tahoe lounge sometime soon.
I played some craps and got ahead a few hundred dollars quickly, and left. A
band was playing in the back and there was a seat at the Riverstage Bar,
where I was playing the progressive DDB. I got a few quads (nothing
bonused), but I was hitting Straight Flushes out of my ass. I hit like 3 or
4 of them in ~ 1000 hands or so. I couldn't believe it was really happening.
In the end, I finished ahead in every game except blackjack. I got DIAD and
I got about $1K take home profit on top of it all. Not a bad trip.
I also walked through Gold Strike next door. It is a very nice floor, but I
didn't stick around and play. I didn't see anything noteworthy from a VP
stand point there. But it's clearly a newer, fresher casino.
Soooo... now that I have Diamond, what do I do with it?
At any rate, I will not be returning to Harrah's any time soon. I like to
drink when I gamble, so I can't drive property to property. If I can't
drive, I have to use their shuttle service. Their shuttle service is
insanely bad. At 1:00 AM on Saturday night (Sunday morning), there was a
line for the shuttle. It was hot and humid and a lot of mosquitoes took me
for a snack. I have quite a few bites on my ankles because I had to wait
outside for their inadequate shuttle service.
Anyway, if anyone has any questions about what is there/isn't there, I might
be able to answer. I hope you enjoyed reading my report.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 12 JUL 2011
Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 12 JUL 2011
"If it's good Enough for You"
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/0712.cfm
<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/0712.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/0712.cfm</a>
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
[vpFREE] Princess Cruise: 10 day Alaska Cruise out of San Francisco
Watched player after player make horrible strategy decisions.
Blackjack on board was playable. Blackjack paid 3:2, dealer had to hit on soft 17 and they used 6 decks with a continuous shuffle machine.
As far as I know, no comps were offered.
James Thompson
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
------------------------------------
vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
vpFREE-digest@yahoogroups.com
vpFREE-fullfeatured@yahoogroups.com
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
vpFREE-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Re: [vpFREE] FrankNBobs paying gig? + ne thoughts on games
Also The Orleans has the triple play with a large prog.if you are dealt the Royal and each line has a prog. if you get the Royal on the draw.... They have it in .05 & .25 cent games with several games to choose ... I play the DB 9/7 best close to 100% (hope Orleans dose not read this LOL,LOL )... Richard from Ca.
PS: I have seen the quater prog. over $21,000 and the nickle prog.over $1700.... GOOD LUCK TO ALL ...
..
--- On Mon, 7/11/11, Valerie Pollard <vpollard@socal.rr.com> wrote:
From: Valerie Pollard <vpollard@socal.rr.com>
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] FrankNBobs paying gig? + ne thoughts on games
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Monday, July 11, 2011, 8:19 AM
I too want to chime in and say that there's nothing wrong with being paid for doing work! And if it ends up in better and more fun video poker then everyone wins (we hope).
I like Pat's idea of multi-line progressives - I haven't seen those around for a long time and they do add excitement. For instance at the Hyatt in Tahoe there is a triple-play progressive with one jackpot for a dealt royal and a separate progressive jackpot for each line royal. It's a $2 game so that's a bit steep, but I could see it at $1 being very popular. Red Rock has that triple play progressive with a different royal for each denomination - that's fun too.
Valerie
__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 6284 (20110711) __________
The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.
http://www.eset.com
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[vpFREE] Re: New Game Suggestion for FrankNBobs
Thank you all for your suggestions. vpFREE at its best!
The deadline has passed for the recommended alterations. I have passed along all of the ideas, even the impossible ones just to let M know what's on everyone's minds.
I have no control over the final decision and I am currently in the dark as to what that will be. When I hear something it will go from my ears to your eyes as fast as my fingers can type.
The only thing I know for sure is they will be eliminating multiple points on the bank. .9% was just too much to add on a bank that's nearly 101% with perfect play already.
If you've got-em cross em.
Cheers,
~FK
[vpFREE] Re: New Game Suggestion for FrankNBobs
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, 007 <007@...> wrote:
> I don't think it will take them long to
> realize that they can make more money by offering less meter
> progression.
You don't really mean that, do you? The correct way to tighten a progressive is to reduce the paytable of the base game. Leave the meter progression alone, that's the bait to suck players in.
[vpFREE] Re: New Game Suggestion for FrankNBobs
People will play the game they are familiar with no matter what the meter rise is. Yesterday someone hit a $2200 Royal when Joker was at $3100.
Doesn't matter what the game is, they are all set at about 96%.
None of them are very "hard." They just suck money unless you hit a Royal. Jacks can suck just as much as the rest when you are not hitting. All are the same. Just the Royal is different.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Joe Kavanagh <cyberjoek@...> wrote:
>
> Could one other option to put on the table is changing the way the meter
> rise is split? Easier / common games (JoB, BP, etc) get the lowest rate,
> the standard but more mental games have the current rate, and harder games
> get the fastest meter rise rate. It makes JoB profitable less often for the
> player but leaves it on there for people who are good value to the Casino
> and the occasions when the meter rise goes up far enough.
> -Joe
>
>
> On Sun, Jul 10, 2011 at 18:04, Frank <frank@...> wrote:
>
> > That's 3 votes for BDW. Thanks...Collating.
> >
>
[vpFREE] Games at M
M doesn't want "decent" player oriented games like jacks or better, or the NSU deuces, or multiline anything.
They think they are going to attract a crowd with 2x points multipliers, and gift giveaways. On 3x point day the place was empty last time I was there. I was amazed. At South Point it is hard to find a machine on 2x point days. Not so with M.
They must be getting the response they want as the crowd is huge in the gift line.
The play for one free buffet per day is also a good idea for them.
It is a beautiful casino.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, jaycee5353@... wrote:
>
> I thought we were looking for an idea that would serve both the player and the house.
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: 007 <007@...>
> To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Mon, Jul 11, 2011 11:57 am
> Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: New Game Suggestion for FrankNBobs
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, 11 Jul 2011 15:49:55 -0000, Bob Bartop wrote:
>
> >--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, jaycee5353@ wrote:
> >
> >>
> >> Here is another thought on the meter movement consept.
> >> You could reduce the meter when the games go positive.
> >> For example at $1800 the meter reduces by 80% for the
> >> balance of time until hit.
> >>
> >>
> >
> >
> >On these games it is more like $2700, not $1800.
> >
> >Anyway, I don't want to sound rude, but this is a lousy idea. Nothing personal. lol
>
> LOL indeed! You must be expressing a player's perspective. That's
> the worst idea I've heard from my point of view, also, but if you
> owned the M, would you regard it as a lousy idea? Barley's didn't
> tolerate this arrangement for long. I can't imagine often having
> $4500 quarter royals being optimal for them.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
[vpFREE] Re: New Game Suggestion for FrankNBobs
In my experience, nothing draws a crowd like a crowd. Trying to take from Peter to pay Paul and the casino's cut is more social sciences.
There could be worse paytables on the end seats on the bank or sprinkled within the bank so someone would actually have to look and know the paytables to gain a better advantaged play. Easier games could have lower payback while driving the meter higher. Offer Keno on the machines that also pumps the progressive. Marketing signs and machine placement is also very important as well as comfort.
I doubt very much this would be an option but thought I would throw it out there. Optimal placement could be just outside the buffet entrance and changing the entrance from a standing line to a number calling system with a sign so they could play while waiting to be seated. The bank would have the side where the sign was not visible to the buffet with better paytables.
[vpFREE] NOLA 7 Star Event
Hi Gang:
Hedy and I got some information from our host in New Orleans about the
Seven Stars Signature Event there in October. As I posted earlier it will be
conducted on two separate weekends, Oct. 6-9 or Oct. 13-16. The second
weekend coincides with the Crescent City Blues and Barbecue Festival, which
will be a separate event at Lafayette Park.
According to our host, the 7 Stars event will feature a welcoming open-air
dinner/lobsterfest the first night, Thursday, at the Crazy Lobster
Restaurant on the pier near the river. Fresh lobsters, crabs and chicken will be
served and a band will entertain during dinner. After that there will be a
boat ride on the Mississippi, with food, of course; a cooking demonstration
and dinner in the theater featuring chef John Besh; and a ride on a Mardi
Gras float from the Harrah's hotel to Bourbon Street (beads supplied), where
participants will disembark and then be pampered on two terraces
overlooking the street. Food, drinks and beignets will be served.
There was no mention of 7X rewards credits, freeplay, travel reimbursement
etc. Those offers vary from person to person, we believe. We did attend the
one last year in NOLA and thought it was very organized and fun so we will
be going back the second weekend this time.
Regards,
CoachVee & Hedy
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[vpFREE] Re: New Game Suggestion for FrankNBobs
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, 007 <007@...> wrote:
>
And there's always opportunity cost. What if a penny slot
> machine would be more profitable than even the optimal progressive?
>
I wrote a reply last night to you but it is apparently lost in cyberspace.
In it I mentioned that I think causing ANY slot player to make a switch to video poker is tantamount to "player development". In the short term the penny slot may indeed be more profitable, but in the long run the casino would be better off with a video poker addict. Just my opinion.
[vpFREE] Re: New Game Suggestion for FrankNBobs
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "GilbertA" <gilrus47@...> wrote:
That is what is happening. The casinos are chumming the waters for the AP's inorder to exclude them leaving only players that the casino views as profitable.
>
They're missing the boat. This could be done so that all players are profitable, pro and rec players. The more the merrier.