A very nice and obviously concerned vpFREE poster emailed me yesterday, worried after she read a post by another couple about their impending trip to Vegas to play the M progressive, that the risk factor hasn't been discussed enough.
Here's the skinny: math says that roughly 62% of all the people that play a progressive will hit at least 1 Royal in a single cycle, and at M this almost undoubtedly means making money. But what about the other 38%.
The variance is very high on these games and playing them with insufficient bankroll is unwise. I favor a $20,000 BR for quarters which renders only about a 1 in 1000 chance of going through that bankroll without getting a Royal.
MOST that play these will do fine. Some will not. It's still gambling and there are very few sure things under a casino's roof.
A few weeks ago people were disputing the return of the games and I was so focused on this, perhaps I did not stress the variance enough.
Yes the variance is high. Yes the return is high, if you play when the JP is up. With enough BR and enough hands (1,000,000) the higher return more than makes up for the big swings.
Without enough BR and enough hands, Nancy Regan's advice on drugs might be applicable. Just say no.
Hope this satisfies your email and thank you for bringing it to my attention.
~FK
