Re: [vpFREE] VP Volatility: single-line > multi-line?

 




---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <007@...> wrote:

harry.porter@... wrote:

>Adding to NOTI fine reference to a Kelly bankroll: A Kelly bankroll figure optimizes bankroll growth, but generally represents an uncomfortable risk level for most players - 13.5% risk of ruin.
>
>
> Some players I know use the kelly numbers, but inflate the suggested bankroll by 150% or 200% (respective ROR's of 5% and 2%).

I'm not sure how there would be any ROR with Kelly betting. Does that
assume that the initial bet level would be retained forever? Under
that assumption, Kelly betting strategy might not optimize bankroll
growth.

In reply to above:

Obviously ROR isn't applciable with Kelly betting.  However, from a practical standpoint, most attractive video poker opportunities are not scalable in the  manner that a true application of Kelly would dictate (limited by game availability).

In any case, in the context of this thread, a Kelly bankroll calculation was cited in response to the general question of what's an appropriate bankroll for a specific multiline play (fixed denom) ... neither the question, nor (I believe) the answer presumed Kelly betting, given these practical limitations.

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[vpFREE] Re: swipe your card

 

> I am just a 4 time a year visitor to the Orleans, but if i understand the posts.....
> when i visit i should swipe my players card at a kiosk before playing any games??
> thanx Dino

Yes, this is to get point multipliers at the four LV Coast casinos. Swipe before playing.

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[vpFREE] Re: Mystery Multipliers at Coast Properties?

 

<< P.S. I found out the hard way that we really do need to activate the 
Coast multipliers BEFORE we play.>>

> From: Queen of Comps

> Ouch!!!!!

> Casinos make it so hard for us oldsters – don't they know our memories are
> getting bad!!! 

Lucky for me after only about five minutes of play it dawned on me that I should have swiped my card before playing. So I lost just a few points. Nevertheless it made an impression on me so that I hope I won't make that mistake again.

This new Coast system of swiping first for multipliers is different from the one that many are probably used to at Stations. There you can swipe anytime that day before, during or after play, and still get the multiplied points. (At least it used to be that way when I last played there regularly.)  

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Re: [vpFREE] VP Volatility: single-line > multi-line?

 

harry.porter@verizon.net wrote:

>Adding to NOTI fine reference to a Kelly bankroll: A Kelly bankroll figure optimizes bankroll growth, but generally represents an uncomfortable risk level for most players - 13.5% risk of ruin.
>
>
> Some players I know use the kelly numbers, but inflate the suggested bankroll by 150% or 200% (respective ROR's of 5% and 2%).

I'm not sure how there would be any ROR with Kelly betting. Does that
assume that the initial bet level would be retained forever? Under
that assumption, Kelly betting strategy might not optimize bankroll
growth.

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Re: [vpFREE] VP Volatility: single-line > multi-line?

 

Adding to NOTI fine reference to a Kelly bankroll:  A Kelly bankroll figure optimizes bankroll growth, but generally represents an uncomfortable risk level for most players - 13.5% risk of ruin.


Some players I know use the kelly numbers, but inflate the suggested bankroll by 150% or 200% (respective ROR's of 5% and 2%).

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Re: [vpFREE] RE: Bankroll Question

 

The wizard, as usual, has some info on the topic:


http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/spin-poker/



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[vpFREE] Special Bill Maher offer on Monday

 

$20 off on the 20th!

Bill Maher who returns to The Pearl inside Palms Casino Resort this March celebrates a birthday on Jan. 20. In honor of this special day, the Palms is offering a limited-time discount of $20 off tickets to his 2014 shows. Simply use the password BIRTHDAY at check out on Jan. 20 (10 a.m. to 10 p.m.) to receive the special offer. Get their tickets online at www.palms.com MONDAY January 20 ONLY from 10 am to 10 pm.

 

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Re: [vpFREE] VP Volatility: single-line > multi-line?

 

Deuces per bet variance = 3.14 + 22.695/N


About 26 for single line, about 11 for triple play, about 8 for 5-play, about 4 for 50-play


Kelly bankroll = bet size times variance divided by edge


If your real time present right now current gambling bankroll isn't greater than the Kelly bankroll, then you can't take that gamble, under the Kelly system.



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[vpFREE] swipe your card

 

I am just a 4 time a year visitor to the Orleans, but if i understand the posts.....when i visit i should swipe my players card at a kiosk before playing any games?? thanx Dino

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[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 17 JAN 2014

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 17 JAN 2014

A New Orleans Trip Report

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=3346

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

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[vpFREE] Re: VP Volatility: single-line > multi-line?

 

Although I don't know the math, the other consideration is denomination.  I think when people say multi-line is less volatile than single-line, what you need to be thinking is, for example, single line quarter machine vs. 5-play nickel machine -- i.e., the amount wagered per play is the same.  Your personal bankroll will certainly fluctuate more if  you're playing $1 machines on a 5-play machine than it will if you're playing $1 machines single line (all else being the same, of course), because your total wager per hand is greater, even though you're drawing (on non-pat hands) five times to the same hand in multi-line.  One hand of 5-play is NOT the same as 5 hands of single play at the same denomination.

While I'm not absolutely sure I have this right, my understanding is that if you are playing $1 single line play, you'd have a smaller risk of ruin playing $0.25 5-play (again, same game / paytable etc.).

For those who don't report non-W2G income, there is an obvious additional advantage to the lower denomination.


--BG
==================

8b. Re: VP Volatility: single-line > multi-line?
    Date: Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:09 pm ((PST))

roaches@austin.rr.com wrote:

>Not necessarily a new topic, but I can't find any in-depth discussion or explanation of why, for example, five-play is less volatile than single-play.  If, in fact, it is, is there a formula for calculating the difference?  And is it reasonable to assume 10-play is less volatile than 5-play?
>
> Thanks for any help...   

The rule of thumb I've heard, which makes intuitive sense, is that
volatility is based on the square root of the number of lines.  4-play
would be twice as volatile or, as I believe you meant when you wrote
that more lines reduces volatility, half as volatile per amount bet as
single line.



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