[vpFREE] Re: A New Low

 

The real point here is that people need to understand the math before they cry foul.

 QZ
=====
Understand math? What a novel idea!

I've taught probability courses, and can report that, of all math topics, probability seems to have a special talent for scrambling the brain.

The mathematics of probability had its start back when the crowned heads of Europe took the rubies out of their navels long enough to approach mathematicians with the question, "Why am I losing so much money at this game?"

Zeroth law of gambling: "Never play the other man's game."

- - Norma
 

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[vpFREE] Re: A New Low

 

Yep.  I totally did not see he was referring to deuces.

Missing KJs on deuces is FAR more reasonable.

The real point here is that people need to understand the math before they cry foul.

 QZ
 


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[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 4 NOV 2016

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 4 NOV 2016

NOVEMBER VEGAS PROMOTIONS

http://jscott.lvablog.com/2016/11/04/november-vegas-promotions-5/

or

<a href="http://jscott.lvablog.com/2016/11/04/november-vegas-promotions-5/">
http://jscott.lvablog.com/2016/11/04/november-vegas-promotions-5/</a>

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This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
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Posted by: vpFREE3355 <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Re: XVP: Vegas Trip Report 10-27-16

 

I agree it was a little rude I can't argue with that.  But I'm just trying to protect myself from once again being  a victim of the rental car companies. 

It's not something I've done in the past, nor something I do at restaurants or for that matter with any other businesses. Based on the way I've been treated by car rental car companies during the past two years and how they have taken advantage of me (using your logic) I've helped push rates down for everyone in the past. I'm just protecting myself from them and I'll explain why:

1. In Vegas, Dollar Express keeps changing their Express pickup procedures. A few rentals ago I went directly to the parking garage to the Dollar kiosk (which is now shared with Thrifty). About eight people were waiting in line. To the right was an open walkway and an employee there told me if I had a Dollar Express reservation to just pick any car in the car size reserved.  I loaded our bags into the car we chose only to discover there was no key or key FOB in it.  So I removed the bags and picked another car only to find that all doors were locked. I asked a different employee walking by for help and she asked to see my paperwork. I had only the reservation confirmation paper work I had printed at home. She said I would have to go back to the kiosk to get my paperwork. The line was still about eight people long and I was upset that I had just wasted 15 minutes and was back at the end of a long line again where I started.

While in line, a different employee walked by and I told her the story and she said I needed to get out of the kiosk line and check the electronic screen to the left of the kiosk and find my name and there would be an assigned car in an assigned space number and my paperwork would be in the car. I got out of line and checked out the electronic screen, and finally found my name, but all that was displayed next to it was TBD (to be determined). In the meantime, two more people took my place in the kiosk line and the line was about nine people long now. 

Forty five minutes later after waiting in line at the so called Express booth, I finally get a car and head to the exit gate booths. Here we find two lines of cars with about eight cars in each line now waiting to get through the car checkout/exit gate booths.

After about another 15 minutes we are about two cars from the booth. It is much brighter here than the area where I picked out the car, so I decide to do a walk-around the car to check for any damages. I notice the sides of the rear bumper are severely chipped and scratched with missing paint and on the passenger door an area about the size of a golf ball has a large ding and missing paint.

Upon finally making it to the car check-out booth gate I tell the agent about the damage and ask her to note it on the paperwork. She says she doesn't do that here and that I would have to pull the car back into the car pick-up area where I got it and find an employee there and have him do it there. I said if I do that I would then have to go back to the end of the eight car queue and wait in line again to get out.  She simply answers: "Yes sir I guess so."

2. Next Vegas trip, I had rented a mid-size SUV via Dollar Express for the week. At the Express booth about 10 parties were waiting for cars as only compacts were available. After about a half hour wait other cars began to show up and about an hour later I was informed I could take a "full size" Nissan Altima as no SUVs would be available for the foreseeable future. Did they compensate me for not having ANY cars even close to the time when my reservation was due.? NO. Did they compensate me for providing me with a lesser car than I paid for. NO

3. On another trip in Florida, there are tolls that can only be paid if you have Florida's version of Fast Pass. No other State is tied into this system, so you can't take your Fast Pass windshield device from your own car from another state and put it into your rental car. Also in Florida there are toll roads that are booth-less. So you can't pay with cash as you enter or exit. But when you don't pay (because you can't pay) they record your license plate and charge the owner of the car. I went through two tolls (as I had no choice but to go that way and had no prior knowledge of the toll setup). I learned that the two tolls came to about $2.60 and if you don't have Florida's automatic pay device in your car, FL sends the car owner a bill for the toll plus a surcharge of $2.00+-.  So the rental car company gets the bill for $6.00+-, BUT then they bill me for $25 service fee for each toll for $50. No amount of discussion with them was going to reduce the bill.

So at this point based on their treatment of me over the past two years, anything I can do to beat them out of a dollar but more importantly get back the time that with no qualms they cheated me out of I will do.  

Not that I need more reason but don't you realize that if you don't prepay (which I did not) that you are paying more than if you do prepay.  So essentially you are paying a surcharge for not prepaying and guaranteeing that you will show up. So essentially I am being charged extra by the rental car companies for the privilege of not showing up for my reservation. 

 I'm just trying to protect myself from once again being a victim of the rental car companies. 

ST


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <cush58@...> wrote :
While I understand your desire to get the best car rental rate, by triple booking you are pushing up the rates for everyone else that required a car at that time.  A little rude.


 

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[vpFREE] Re: A New Low

 

Glad someone is on the right track (in my initial reply I put frequency at 1 in 2000-3000, allowing a range of potential hold penalties).

It's threads like these that warm the cockles of my heart (extending faith that a decent number of attractive plays will continue to exist because some "diamonds in the rough" will continue to be overlooked because of preconceptions).



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote :

Ok, I'm going to do something that doesn't happen anywhere near enough on this site. I'm going to lay out all the conditions for a statement then look at the results.


The original poster said that he went 0 for 50 holding KJs in deuces wild. Here's what that would look like:


Game : 9/4/4 deuces wild 50 play ( I picked a deuces wild flavor. It shouldn't matter too much for this case)

Event: dealt KJ suited ( discards weren't specified, but should not matter too much)

Result: no winning hand


Math


p( non winning hand from KJs) = 13802/16215 = 0.85119 (from Winpoker)

p( non winning hand from KJs on all 50 hands) = 0.85119^50 = 0.00031714 or 1 in 3153 ( from Bayes, so at least you got that part right)


This is roughly the same probability as seeing red come up 11 times in a row at roulette.


So, from a sample size of 1, not having set the conditions or hypothesis beforehand, a 1 in 3153 result becomes conclusive proof of cheating? You should never walk into a casino again. And you saying 'believe me' when you lay out a nonsensical argument doesn't help your claim.


Pretty stupid way to cheat. You take a low paying event ( KJs is worth 1.7 coins per line) and force a rare occurrence ( no winning hands). So, a casino sets up a high risk of detection event for a low payout? Casinos do some stupid things but this isn't on the list.



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Re: [vpFREE] Re: A New Low

 

The other night, the winning numbers drawn for Powerball were 13,18,37,54,61 and PB5.

The odds against that are astronomical, and I take it as evidence the thing is rigged.

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 3:19 PM, Lone Locust of the Apocalypse zorak@ninthbit.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 



On November 4, 2016 10:06:01 AM PDT, "shagatola shagatola shagatola@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
>Did anyone consider a Nordo's response could have been sarcasm? At
>least that's how I read it.

That occurred to me briefly, but I considered his past posts and applied Bayes' Theorem and came up with P(sarcasm)=0.


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Re: [vpFREE] Re: A New Low

 



On November 4, 2016 10:06:01 AM PDT, "shagatola shagatola shagatola@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
>Did anyone consider a Nordo's response could have been sarcasm? At
>least that's how I read it.

That occurred to me briefly, but I considered his past posts and applied Bayes' Theorem and came up with P(sarcasm)=0.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: A New Low

 

I will admit to one thing - I never figured out the chance of going 0 for 50 honestly. I thought it was much lower. I would now not reject the null hypothesis (that the game is honest). However further monitoring is clearly needed.

Sent from my iPhone

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: A New Low

 

"I will again mention Bayes theorem (to the newcomers to this post)..."

You're ignoring the likely thousands of other hands played, which are pretty important as far as this sort of approach to the question is concerned.

Ed

On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 10:19 AM, Steve Norden Nordo123@aol.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

I will again mention Bayes theorem (to the newcomers to this post). Assuming your a priori guess as to the probability of being cheated is only 1/1000. You would only arrive at an 0 for 50 1/29000 honestly. Your post event guess as the chance that the game was honest is (1/29000)/(1/1000)=1/29. Even if your a priori guess was your chance of being cheated was only 1/10000 you still conclude that your post priori chance that you were cheated was about 2/3. Also it would not surprise me: Never overestimate the intelligence of a casino.

Sent from my iPhone


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Re: [vpFREE] Re: A New Low

 

I will again mention Bayes theorem (to the newcomers to this post). Assuming your a priori guess as to the probability of being cheated is only 1/1000. You would only arrive at an 0 for 50 1/29000 honestly. Your post event guess as the chance that the game was honest is (1/29000)/(1/1000)=1/29. Even if your a priori guess was your chance of being cheated was only 1/10000 you still conclude that your post priori chance that you were cheated was about 2/3. Also it would not surprise me: Never overestimate the intelligence of a casino.

Sent from my iPhone

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: A New Low

 

Did anyone consider a Nordo's response could have been sarcasm? At least that's how I read it. Y'all involved in some skullduggery.

Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 4, 2016, at 9:32 AM, ken orgera keno60@hotmail.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 


Sent from my Verizon 4G LTE Droid
On Nov 4, 2016 11:01 AM, "greeklandjohnny@aol.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

Ok, I'm going to do something that doesn't happen anywhere near enough on this site. I'm going to lay out all the conditions for a statement then look at the results.


The original poster said that he went 0 for 50 holding KJs in deuces wild. Here's what that would look like:


Game : 9/4/4 deuces wild 50 play ( I picked a deuces wild flavor. It shouldn't matter too much for this case)

Event: dealt KJ suited ( discards weren't specified, but should not matter too much)

Result: no winning hand


Math


p( non winning hand from KJs) = 13802/16215 = 0.85119 (from Winpoker)

p( non winning hand from KJs on all 50 hands) = 0.85119^50 = 0.00031714 or 1 in 3153 ( from Bayes, so at least you got that part right)


This is roughly the same probability as seeing red come up 11 times in a row at roulette.


So, from a sample size of 1, not having set the conditions or hypothesis beforehand, a 1 in 3153 result becomes conclusive proof of cheating? You should never walk into a casino again. And you saying 'believe me' when you lay out a nonsensical argument doesn't help your claim.


Pretty stupid way to cheat. You take a low paying event ( KJs is worth 1.7 coins per line) and force a rare occurrence ( no winning hands). So, a casino sets up a high risk of detection event for a low payout? Casinos do some stupid things but this isn't on the list.



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Posted by: shagatola shagatola <shagatola@yahoo.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: A New Low

 


Sent from my Verizon 4G LTE Droid
On Nov 4, 2016 11:01 AM, "greeklandjohnny@aol.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

Ok, I'm going to do something that doesn't happen anywhere near enough on this site. I'm going to lay out all the conditions for a statement then look at the results.


The original poster said that he went 0 for 50 holding KJs in deuces wild. Here's what that would look like:


Game : 9/4/4 deuces wild 50 play ( I picked a deuces wild flavor. It shouldn't matter too much for this case)

Event: dealt KJ suited ( discards weren't specified, but should not matter too much)

Result: no winning hand


Math


p( non winning hand from KJs) = 13802/16215 = 0.85119 (from Winpoker)

p( non winning hand from KJs on all 50 hands) = 0.85119^50 = 0.00031714 or 1 in 3153 ( from Bayes, so at least you got that part right)


This is roughly the same probability as seeing red come up 11 times in a row at roulette.


So, from a sample size of 1, not having set the conditions or hypothesis beforehand, a 1 in 3153 result becomes conclusive proof of cheating? You should never walk into a casino again. And you saying 'believe me' when you lay out a nonsensical argument doesn't help your claim.


Pretty stupid way to cheat. You take a low paying event ( KJs is worth 1.7 coins per line) and force a rare occurrence ( no winning hands). So, a casino sets up a high risk of detection event for a low payout? Casinos do some stupid things but this isn't on the list.



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Posted by: ken orgera <keno60@hotmail.com>
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