Re: [vpFREE] Church Team's results might meet statistical expectation

 

The Church group video was interesting. Tommy Highland's observation was spot on as always stating that most teams overestimate their win by about 2/3. My 3 reasons why this is so: 1)No player plays perfectly, I know I don't play perfectly and I find it hard to believe that anyone does. 2)Player skimming - I know I am 100% honest (sounds conceited but true) but not everyone is. Many, many moons ago I was part of a team with a skimmer, all you need is one to kill your teams profit. 3)Casino cheating - for those of you that believe that 100% of casinos are honest forget it!! I have personally seen cheating, and if I can see it anyone can. I have heard so many stories of casino cheating - "are they all lies?". Let's see if the team plays in 100 casinos with a "theoretical" edge of 1/2% and 99 of the casinos are honest and 1 casino cheats. Again your team win goes right down the drain. Same as a skimmer. Cheaters everywhere - go to ****! A funny observation - in the video it was noted that the team won about $1000 per year per casino less than the coffee expense! Imagine this, Player A wins $1,002,000 from casino X, player B losses $1,000,000 to casino Y. That is a net profit of $1,000 per casino. Casino X is going crazy, firing and blaming everyone for the loss. Casino Y is thinking everything is normal, after all "we are the casino and should always win".

Sent from my iPhone

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Re: [vpFREE] Church Team's results might meet statistical expectation

 

007 asked?: "Why did they need a bankroll of $1.5 million when they split their
wins up after every $100,000?"

I assume the $1.5 million was appropriate for the type of gambling they were engaged in. Which leads me to believe their edges were too tight, and as a consequence their N0 was too big. With most modern casinos, counting typically doesn't produce reasonable edges, that's basically why someone wrote a book called "Beyond Counting".



books.google.com/books?isbn=0910575177

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Re: [vpFREE] Church Team's results might meet statistical expectation

 


Why did they need a bankroll of $1.5 million when they split their
wins up after every $100,000?

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Re: [vpFREE] Church Team's results might meet statistical expectation

 

What are you blabbering about???? Perhaps some context is needed before you start rambling things in your post?????

On Jun 20, 2014, at 1:55 PM, "nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

While the N0 for flatbetting blackjack is low, for card counting and spread betting, it is not.

For a team that is under N0 (1/3 negative results due to chance alone), statistically one would expect the middle third to be +1EV, the bottom third to be -1EV, and the top third to be +3EV, for a net +1EV mean. Colin said his middle third broke even, which leads me to suspect the middle and top third were skimming an EV, so their results were 0 for the middle and only +2EV for the top third, for a net +1/3 EV. Ironically blame was probably placed on the losing bottom third when in reality they were probably the most honest group. Now, someone might say this is a Church Team, aren't Church Team's highly ethical? My observations lead me to believe that Church Team's are the least ethical.

World Game Protection Conference Presentation (The Surveillance Conference)

 



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[vpFREE] Church Team's results might meet statistical expectation

 

While the N0 for flatbetting blackjack is low, for card counting and spread betting, it is not.

For a team that is under N0 (1/3 negative results due to chance alone), statistically one would expect the middle third to be +1EV, the bottom third to be -1EV, and the top third to be +3EV, for a net +1EV mean. Colin said his middle third broke even, which leads me to suspect the middle and top third were skimming an EV, so their results were 0 for the middle and only +2EV for the top third, for a net +1/3 EV. Ironically blame was probably placed on the losing bottom third when in reality they were probably the most honest group. Now, someone might say this is a Church Team, aren't Church Team's highly ethical? My observations lead me to believe that Church Team's are the least ethical.

World Game Protection Conference Presentation (The Surveillance Conference)

 



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[vpFREE] vpFREE Exchange - 20 JUN 2014

 

vpFREE Exchange - 20 JUN 2014

Listings now include:

- Casino-Related Items Store

- Custom Embroidery

- Enrolled Agents for tax assistance

- Professional Sports Jerseys

- Senior-level Freelance Technical Writer

- Vacation Rentals

- Vegas Job Links

The vpFREE Exchange is accessible via vpFREE Links"
or directly at:

http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Links_CX.htm

Any member who would like to have a listing in the vpFREE
Exchange should send me a private email with a short blurb
and contact information.

The vpFREE Exchange will be publicized by periodic posts
to vpFREE.

vpFREE Administrator

******************************************

DISCLAIMER

vpFREE is, and will always remain, a non-profit operation. Neither
vpFREE nor the vpFREE Administrator has any financial interest, direct
or indirect, in any commercial video poker related product or endeavor.

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[vpFREE] Jackpot Pictures - 20 JUN 2014

 

Jackpot Pictures - 20 JUN 2014

The vpFREE Yahoo Photo Directory is now open to all vpFREE
members and they can / should upload their Jackpot Pictures
themselves.

vpFREE Yahoo Photo Directory:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/photos/album/0/list

When uploading pictures please put them in the current "Jackpot Hands"
album (or the correct year's album, if taken in an earlier year) rather
than starting a new album.

After you upload a picture to the Photo Directory you're welcome
to share it with other members by posting a link to the picture
on the vpFREE forum.

If you shorten the link by using "http://tinyurl.com/" it will
make your picture easier to access.

vpFREE Administrator

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[vpFREE] vpFREE Member Participation Expectations - 20 JUN 2014

 

vpFREE Member Participation Expectations - 20 JUN 2014

Every vpFREE member, as a requirement for continuing
membership, is expected to:

1. Vote in all applicable vpFREE polls and elections.

2. Report inventory changes to vpFREE2 and/or the vpFREE
forums, unless they believe it's better not to publicize the
games either for their own benefit or for the video poker
community as a whole.

vpFREE Administrator

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