Another way to look at this: drawing for the flush (holding AHTXsuited) instead of the royal (holding AHTsuited) is the superior play while you are not getting the royal. Over 1081 trials, AHTXsuited returns on average $6900 while AHTsuited returns on average just $2955 without royals. Now, on average, you would expect to get that royal, and that $4000 puts AHTsuited slightly ahead by $55, but there is no guarantee. And you should really think out the total costs of hitting a royal. If you tip $40, now you're just talking a difference of $15. When you consider all the other ramifications of hitting a royal: delay in paying, tax problems, heat for getting approvals, lookie-loos, low lifes considering whether or not they should try to jump you later, identity fraud problems, and so on, going for the royal isn't justified on a dollar basis. Maybe emotionally you really want that royal, maybe emotionally you think you can get more than your fair share of royals and you think the casino isn't watching and likes to pay off W2G's, but the dollars and the math is against it.
Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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