Say WHAT, Sayitsme?
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>I will not play video poker where I can get W2G's if I am getting Medicare.
W2-G's affect your MAGI whether you are a net winner or a net loser for a given year. With a large enough MAGI your medicare and prescription plan premiums are increased.
I looked up the current numbers. In a worst case scenario, for a MAGI of about $400,000, this can amount to as much as about $3,600 per year increase in premiums for a married couple filing jointly.
Thank you Federal government! <GROAN>
..... bl
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A good column as usual Bob. However you did not make a distinction between limit and no limit Hold'em. In no limit Hold'em you will find the better players. If you can win at $20-$40 limit Hold'em does not mean you will crush $1-$2 limit Hold'em, in fact you will probably be a loser. Sure the players are much worse but a typical casino rake of $4 per hand will destroy anybody. There may not be anybody in the world that can beat $1-$2 limit Hold'em and if that rare person exists that can it would be a total waste of their talent making less than $6 per hour. Now you are right to say that if someone can win at $20-$40 no limit Hold'em he will destroy $1-$2 no limit Hold'em. On the video poker scene I am getting to old to play (59 later this year). I will not play video poker where I can get W2G's if I am getting Medicare. Is it FPDW progressive for me leaving at $1200 or more progressive? I hope not, the dollars are too little for me. Oh how I will fall down in class - from hundreds of thousands of dollars of W2G's per year to zero! Advice to all young video poker players - get annuitized early and quit (certainly quit if you're getting Medicare). My prediction, not many people are going to listen to me even though I am almost always right. An example in the casinos when I see a person take a cash advance I will tell that person not to take that cash advance to gamble. You are paying a cash advance fee to lose money gambling. Those that understand what I'm saying will agree with me and take the cash advance anyway. I have not had one person agree with me and not take the cash advance because of what I told him (her). It might be table poker only for me in a few years. Of course if I'm annuitized no gambling (yeah) is in my future.
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Hi everyone!
I am looking for a good host at The Palms, does anyone have a recommendation?
Thanks very much :-)
Karen
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Bob wrote: "...going broke is tougher at age 60 than it is at 25 because you have less opportunity to "make it back." So whatever the video poker software tells you that you need for a bankroll, if you're a senior citizen, you probably need more than that. In both games, senior citizens are rightfully more concerned with preserving whatever bankroll they have, while a young player might rightfully be more concerned with building her bankroll for bigger and better things down the road"
I couldn't agree more. Some gamblers might want to push things right to the Kelly optimum, maybe even a little beyond as there is bankroll growth right up to double the Kelly bet, but for the majority it makes more sense to back down a bit and make safer bets. Any betsize that's less than the Kelly optimum still produces bankroll growth, it may be less than optimum however there is also less risk involved, and trading off growth for less risk is a very reasonable tradeoff. In addition, there is another problem. Sure, computers can tell you the computer perfect EV and Variance of a gamble, however, even Bob Dancer has admitted to making play mistakes in the highly distracting environment of an actual casino. Heck, even I make play mistakes, mostly due to bad buttons, there I admitted it. The result is that probably no one actually gets the computer perfect EV and Variance in the actual casino environment. Short of doing extensive studies (which can be done) this means gamblers must estimate their actual EV and Variance and assume it will always be different from the computer perfect values. This introduces an "unknown unknown" in the equations and almost all players underestimate how far off from computer perfect they are. This is another reason to stay on the safe side of the Kelly optimum and to even bet well clear of it. Betting half the Kelly optimum is the typical approach, so there is absolutely nothing disgraceful about not betting the Kelly optimum. You don't have to be "extreme" about everything you do, sometimes just being able to survive to tell the story is enough excitement. Leave the broken bones stories to the teenagers.
And one note of clarification: I wrote this in terms of selecting a bet size, which is the typical way of thinking of Kelly. However, in video poker, the betsizes typically have few options, perhaps only one. But you have control over the bankroll you chose to play with. The Kelly optimal bet can be approximated by bankroll x ev / variance. In video poker, it's more useful to think of the Kelly optimal bankroll, which is betsize x variance / ev. Bankrolls greater than the Kelly optimal bankroll are in the safe zone where there is always bankroll growth and less risk for larger bankrolls. Bankrolls less than the Kelly optimal bankroll are in the danger zone, and at less than half the Kelly optimal bankroll there is bankroll shrinkage. Smart gamblers would be wise to stop gambling if their bankroll gets depleted to less than the Kelly optimal and often times even before. At such a point the gambler either needs to rebuild their bankroll from a day job or find a gamble that is a better fit for their current bankroll size.
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Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 27 JAN 2015
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm
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Bob Dancer's LVA - 20 JAN 2015
Going Down in Stakes
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/0127.cfm
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Scot Krause's Real Deals - 27 JAN 2015
Las Vegas Casino bargains and promotions
http://gamingtoday.com/articles/article/51698-Vegas_swimming_in_Super_Bowl_deals#.VMehZP7F98E
or
http://goo.gl/rB577L
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Alex, your information is correct. Some previous comments were not correct – old information. I have seen this same person. It is not Frank Kneeland. I know his name, but I am not going to post it. Doesn't pay to jump to conclusions.
------------------------------------------
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, January 27, 2015 7:33 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?
In the high limit area at NOLA there are six machines next to each other that have 3/5/10 play with NSU on each of them. I have seen the young man play 2-10 play NSU games at the same time at lightening speed for many, many hours. I saw him in Dec. and in Jan. 2015 at NOLA. On one occasion he had started at 6:00 a.m. and was still going strong at 4:00 p.m. During that time frame, I took several breaks for food and bathroom breaks!
Alex
-----Original Message-----
From: Bob Dancer bobdancervp@hotmail.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpfree <vpfree@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Jan 27, 2015 1:08 am
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?
I, for one, am not buying what was reputed to have happened in NOLA.
For a lot of reasons it doesn't sound to me like Frank Kneeland. I'm not going to go into details, but I know him better than most of you do.
Last time I played at that casino (November 2014), I believe the Ten Play machines were spaced out every other machine. It was virtually impossible to play two Ten Play machines at once
When I played those machines I could get around $20K per hour through. Let's say this speed demon played $50K per hour. It would take 50 hours to play the reported $2,500,000 per trip --- and he's supposed to make two of these trips per month. Really?
Also, in NOLA, many players who primarily play the NSU Ten Play machines get no-mailed. It seems really unlikely to me that they'd make a special offer (including out-of-town airfare and plenty of cash to make up for the less-than-100% shortfall in play $5 million a month) for a player to play these machines extensively.
I suspect parts of story are approximately true. But in totality, there appears to me to be many things that aren't believable.
Bob
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In the high limit area at NOLA there are six machines next to each other that have 3/5/10 play with NSU on each of them. I have seen the young man play 2-10 play NSU games at the same time at lightening speed for many, many hours. I saw him in Dec. and in Jan. 2015 at NOLA. On one occasion he had started at 6:00 a.m. and was still going strong at 4:00 p.m. During that time frame, I took several breaks for food and bathroom breaks!
Alex
-----Original Message-----
From: Bob Dancer bobdancervp@hotmail.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpfree <vpfree@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Jan 27, 2015 1:08 am
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?
I, for one, am not buying what was reputed to have happened in NOLA.
For a lot of reasons it doesn't sound to me like Frank Kneeland. I'm not going to go into details, but I know him better than most of you do.
Last time I played at that casino (November 2014), I believe the Ten Play machines were spaced out every other machine. It was virtually impossible to play two Ten Play machines at once
When I played those machines I could get around $20K per hour through. Let's say this speed demon played $50K per hour. It would take 50 hours to play the reported $2,500,000 per trip --- and he's supposed to make two of these trips per month. Really?
Also, in NOLA, many players who primarily play the NSU Ten Play machines get no-mailed. It seems really unlikely to me that they'd make a special offer (including out-of-town airfare and plenty of cash to make up for the less-than-100% shortfall in play $5 million a month) for a player to play these machines extensively.
I suspect parts of story are approximately true. But in totality, there appears to me to be many things that aren't believable.
Bob
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Vegas Values Report - 27 JAN 2015
http://gamingtoday.com/articles/article/51698-Vegas_swimming_in_Super_Bowl_deals#.VMehZP7F98E
or
http://goo.gl/rB577L
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
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