[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 9 JAN 2013

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 9 JAN 2013

"Some Additions to the January Report"

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=2591

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This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

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[vpFREE] GWAE January 10

 

This week's guest will be Stanford Wong.

Because my IT lady is out of town, the podcast won't be posted on my site until next week. You may still get it Friday morning from wizardofodds.com and/or richardmunchkin.com

Bob

Sent from my iPhone

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[vpFREE] What Variance Looks Like In The Real World

 

I've read many a post in the past where someone has run badly and became suspicious of whether the game is random or not. So I thought I would collect some stats off of a game I play and show everybody what variance looks like in the real world.

It's a fifty cent ten-spot progressive video keno game. The payscale looks like this:

4/10.......2
5/10.......6
6/10......12
7/10......60 Meter starts at $30 and runs at 4%.
8/10.....260
9/10.....800
10/10 1600

The 9/10 and 10/10 combined represent .5% of the payback. But I discount that out. I work with hittable odds. Although I did hit the 9/10 once.

So up through the 8/10 the game returns 91.28%, which includes the 4% meter. That is, if one plays the game straight through. I don't. My playable number is $95 in the 7/10 meter. I'll consider taking the play at less if I don't have anything else to do. But at $95 the theoretical is 108.22%. The frequency on the 7/10 is 621 games. On paper, the 7/10 would have to not appear for 2.6 cycles to put it on $95. But I get a lot of help from, believe it or not, short coiners. You wouldn't believe how many people play this game betting only twenty-five cents. They drive the meter up, but they don't qualify for anything. God bless their little pea pickin' hearts for helping this poor ol' casino hustler out.

Like I said, the frequency for 7/10 is 621 games, but here's what my game stats look like for the last 30 plays, in other words how many games it took me to hit the 7/10. It's easy to count the games. I write the meter down at the start and the finish. It's a 4% meter so if I put $10.60 in it I just multiply it by fifty to get 530 games.

1. 241
2. 983
3. 166
4. 577
5. 342
6. 528
7. 635
8. 1167
9. 1018
10. 338
11. 407
12. 400
13. 1050
14. 158
15. 262
16. 792
17. 670
18. 14
19. 1337
20. 166
21. 127
22. 1061
23. 2789
24. 494
25. 517
26. 696
27. 70
28. 158
29. 858
30. 38

I played a total of 18,059 games to complete the 30 plays. No two plays were on the same machine and their were several little casinos involved. The shortest play was 14 games, the longest was 2789. Only on plays 4, 7, and 17, did I come close to the mathematical freqency of 621 for 7/10. If you look the numbers over you will see that I took some wild gyrations. But dividing the 18,059 games by the 30 plays means I hit the 7/10 an average of every 602 games.

Play number 23 was the barn burner, 2789 games to snap the damn 7/10 off. I took a $190 hit on a game where the average play is only worth about $35 or $40. Did I get mad? Damn right! I'm a piss poor loser. Show me a happy loser and I'll show you a loser. I don't like losing, period. If I'm playing tiddly winks with my grandmother, I'm gonna try and beat her fifty to nothing.

Did I think the machine was gaffed? Hell, no. Did I think about taking a walk on the play. Hell, no. On these short term plays, if it was a play when I sat down on it, it'll be a play until I snap it off. Taking a walk is the worst thing you can do. At 2000 games I was stuck damn near double what the meter paid. But the meter was at $144. I came in on the play when the meter was at $104, or an 11% advantage. At $144 it's a 24% advantage. What? I was supposed to take a walk and find another play. Hell, no. So, I was stuck. So, what? I had a 24% play sitting right in front of me. I sat there until I snapped if off.

The 30 plays showed a $1057 profit. On turbo speed the game plays at 25 games per minute. Average seat time per play is 25 minutes. The hourly rate is over $80 per hour. I only get maybe 8 or 10 plays a month at this game. But it does add to the bottom line.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Tier Credits

 

I've had many cases over the years that the point totals shown online differ by a few points over what the screen says on the VP machine. We always try to earn at least 5 additional points over what is required by a promotion. We also write down what the machine screen says we earned and verify it with the web totals. We're now keeping an even closer watch over this with these new bonuses.

Barry

From: the7thwarrior
Sent: Wednesday, January 09, 2013 3:08 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Tier Credits

Check your tier score after each play.
You don't always get the bonus tier credits promised.
Played 2502 pts. and only got 1000 instead of 5000.
Total rewards has been looking into it they say for the past 4 days, examining the account.
Hopefully they will remedy the situation soon.

--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, Jesse Custer wrote:
>
> Based on the mailer they sent, it's just the new normal.
>
> Any day you earn 500 tier credits, you get 125 extra.
> Any day you earn 1000, you get an extra 1000.
> Any day you earn 2500, you get an extra 5000.
>
> With the new tiers being
> 5000 - platinum
> 15000 - diamond
> 150000 - seven stars
>
> So you can now get seven stars with 20 separate days of 2500. That's twice as fast as before (if you spread your play properly).
>
> Huge incentive now to plan your play in advance to maximize the days with 1000 and 2500.
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 8 JAN 2013

 



From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
the7thwarrior
Sent: Wednesday, January 09, 2013 12:06 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 8 JAN 2013

Same thing happened to us last weekend. Usually you are limited to 2 wins
per drawing, but we were told since there were so few people in attendance,
they had "opened the computer" to allow you to win unlimited times. We were
each called 3 times. Then not for the next several drawings. (drawing every
15 min.) After checking again we were told the new limit was 3 times, not
UNLIMITED as we were told previously. Wasted our time playing for nothing.
We would have left had we known we could not win again.

---Where was this?

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Tier Credits

 

Check your tier score after each play.
You don't always get the bonus tier credits promised.
Played 2502 pts. and only got 1000 instead of 5000.
Total rewards has been looking into it they say for the past 4 days, examining the account.
Hopefully they will remedy the situation soon.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jesse Custer wrote:
>
> Based on the mailer they sent, it's just the new normal.
>
> Any day you earn 500 tier credits, you get 125 extra.
> Any day you earn 1000, you get an extra 1000.
> Any day you earn 2500, you get an extra 5000.
>
> With the new tiers being
> 5000 - platinum
> 15000 - diamond
> 150000 - seven stars
>
> So you can now get seven stars with 20 separate days of 2500. That's twice as fast as before (if you spread your play properly).
>
> Huge incentive now to plan your play in advance to maximize the days with 1000 and 2500.
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 8 JAN 2013

 


Same thing happened to us last weekend. Usually you are limited to 2 wins per drawing, but we were told since there were so few people in attendance, they had "opened the computer" to allow you to win unlimited times. We were each called 3 times. Then not for the next several drawings. (drawing every 15 min.) After checking again we were told the new limit was 3 times, not UNLIMITED as we were told previously. Wasted our time playing for nothing. We would have left had we known we could not win again.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" wrote:
>
> Just love the "Sgt Schultz" promotions ("... I know nothing!")
>
> As far as changing the rules mid-promotion, I'm a guppy compared to Bob, but in my own play I've seen two likely egregious examples in the last year ...
>
> ---
>
> In one case, where play through the day earned entries for half-hour drawings, beginning at mid-day, with 5 names called each time ... a good friend had played strong in the morning and lucked into calls for each of the first 4 drawings. I had gotten a late start and, playing steady in a casino somewhat sparse with winners, seemed to get into the stream of things when I was called for the 3rd and 4th of those drawings. (FWIW, prizes were on the modest size, but could mount up.)
>
> Then, neither of us were called for the 5th drawing. We attributed it to sour luck, but the same proved true for all consecutive drawings in the day.
>
> Can't swear to it, but it's my guess we were stricken from future winnings that day after they became concerned about the repeat appearances.
>
> ---
>
> On another day, I played a 2-day promotion where entries were earned into a drawing at the end of the 2nd day. The format is that 40 names would be drawn, winner need be present, with each contestant essentially drawing a prize slip from a fishbowl. Event was Sun/Mon, with relatively light attendance on Sunday, and I figured even lighter on Monday ... so decided to play up a bit (which means I doubled my intended play). I confirmed the first day that players were eligible for more than one prize (not specific in the rules).
>
> A surprisingly few players were gathered for the drawing on the second day. (I estimated that as few as 200 were present, and few seemed to be even moderately hard hitters.)
>
> My name was called first out of the starting gate, and I pulled my prize slip. Disappointed, I pulled the smallest prize amount. But I felt I was positioned for a good chance at more (in fact, back of the envelope, I estimated I was good for as many as 3 or 4 shots altogether).
>
> Then I got a glance at the clip board the person calling names off was holding. They had selected about 100 names in advance. Suspiciously, there were 6 entries on the sheet that were blacked out with a marker.
>
> I couldn't see details, but it seemed possible that, after the fact, they had decided to eliminate duplicate winnings. So I asked another employee assisting with the selected winners if it was possible to win more than once. "Oh, yes!" Whatever the case, I wasn't drawn again.
>
> - H.
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator wrote:
> >
> > Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 8 JAN 2013
> >
> > "How Not to Run a Promotion"
> >
> > http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0108.cfm
> >
> >
> > *************************************************
> > This link is posted for informational purposes
> > and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
> > of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
> > discussion of the article must be done in
> > accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
> > *************************************************
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Kewadin casinos in Brimley, Michigan

 

For your information, the Brimley casino is not part of the Kewadin casinos. It is a separate tribe. The casino is called Bay Mills. We played there a few years ago and I remember that they had some 9/6 JOB but cannot remember the denom. Nice place though although quite cold now and even cool in summer.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Diane" wrote:
>
> Does anyone know if there is anything playable at Kewadin in Brimley, Michigan? There isn't anything at VP2 website under midwest casinos. Wasn't sure if that's because there is no monitor or if it's a VP wasteland. We are on a casino tour at the end of the month and I would like a heads up if possible. Thank you for any help you can give.
>

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[vpFREE] Kewadin casinos in Brimley, Michigan

 

Does anyone know if there is anything playable at Kewadin in Brimley, Michigan? There isn't anything at VP2 website under midwest casinos. Wasn't sure if that's because there is no monitor or if it's a VP wasteland. We are on a casino tour at the end of the month and I would like a heads up if possible. Thank you for any help you can give.

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 8 JAN 2013

 

Just love the "Sgt Schultz" promotions ("... I know nothing!")

As far as changing the rules mid-promotion, I'm a guppy compared to Bob, but in my own play I've seen two likely egregious examples in the last year ...

---

In one case, where play through the day earned entries for half-hour drawings, beginning at mid-day, with 5 names called each time ... a good friend had played strong in the morning and lucked into calls for each of the first 4 drawings. I had gotten a late start and, playing steady in a casino somewhat sparse with winners, seemed to get into the stream of things when I was called for the 3rd and 4th of those drawings. (FWIW, prizes were on the modest size, but could mount up.)

Then, neither of us were called for the 5th drawing. We attributed it to sour luck, but the same proved true for all consecutive drawings in the day.

Can't swear to it, but it's my guess we were stricken from future winnings that day after they became concerned about the repeat appearances.

---

On another day, I played a 2-day promotion where entries were earned into a drawing at the end of the 2nd day. The format is that 40 names would be drawn, winner need be present, with each contestant essentially drawing a prize slip from a fishbowl. Event was Sun/Mon, with relatively light attendance on Sunday, and I figured even lighter on Monday ... so decided to play up a bit (which means I doubled my intended play). I confirmed the first day that players were eligible for more than one prize (not specific in the rules).

A surprisingly few players were gathered for the drawing on the second day. (I estimated that as few as 200 were present, and few seemed to be even moderately hard hitters.)

My name was called first out of the starting gate, and I pulled my prize slip. Disappointed, I pulled the smallest prize amount. But I felt I was positioned for a good chance at more (in fact, back of the envelope, I estimated I was good for as many as 3 or 4 shots altogether).

Then I got a glance at the clip board the person calling names off was holding. They had selected about 100 names in advance. Suspiciously, there were 6 entries on the sheet that were blacked out with a marker.

I couldn't see details, but it seemed possible that, after the fact, they had decided to eliminate duplicate winnings. So I asked another employee assisting with the selected winners if it was possible to win more than once. "Oh, yes!" Whatever the case, I wasn't drawn again.

- H.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator wrote:
>
> Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 8 JAN 2013
>
> "How Not to Run a Promotion"
>
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0108.cfm
>
>
> *************************************************
> This link is posted for informational purposes
> and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
> of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
> discussion of the article must be done in
> accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
> *************************************************
>

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