I've read many a post in the past where someone has run badly and became suspicious of whether the game is random or not. So I thought I would collect some stats off of a game I play and show everybody what variance looks like in the real world.
It's a fifty cent ten-spot progressive video keno game. The payscale looks like this:
4/10.......2
5/10.......6
6/10......12
7/10......60 Meter starts at $30 and runs at 4%.
8/10.....260
9/10.....800
10/10 1600
The 9/10 and 10/10 combined represent .5% of the payback. But I discount that out. I work with hittable odds. Although I did hit the 9/10 once.
So up through the 8/10 the game returns 91.28%, which includes the 4% meter. That is, if one plays the game straight through. I don't. My playable number is $95 in the 7/10 meter. I'll consider taking the play at less if I don't have anything else to do. But at $95 the theoretical is 108.22%. The frequency on the 7/10 is 621 games. On paper, the 7/10 would have to not appear for 2.6 cycles to put it on $95. But I get a lot of help from, believe it or not, short coiners. You wouldn't believe how many people play this game betting only twenty-five cents. They drive the meter up, but they don't qualify for anything. God bless their little pea pickin' hearts for helping this poor ol' casino hustler out.
Like I said, the frequency for 7/10 is 621 games, but here's what my game stats look like for the last 30 plays, in other words how many games it took me to hit the 7/10. It's easy to count the games. I write the meter down at the start and the finish. It's a 4% meter so if I put $10.60 in it I just multiply it by fifty to get 530 games.
1. 241
2. 983
3. 166
4. 577
5. 342
6. 528
7. 635
8. 1167
9. 1018
10. 338
11. 407
12. 400
13. 1050
14. 158
15. 262
16. 792
17. 670
18. 14
19. 1337
20. 166
21. 127
22. 1061
23. 2789
24. 494
25. 517
26. 696
27. 70
28. 158
29. 858
30. 38
I played a total of 18,059 games to complete the 30 plays. No two plays were on the same machine and their were several little casinos involved. The shortest play was 14 games, the longest was 2789. Only on plays 4, 7, and 17, did I come close to the mathematical freqency of 621 for 7/10. If you look the numbers over you will see that I took some wild gyrations. But dividing the 18,059 games by the 30 plays means I hit the 7/10 an average of every 602 games.
Play number 23 was the barn burner, 2789 games to snap the damn 7/10 off. I took a $190 hit on a game where the average play is only worth about $35 or $40. Did I get mad? Damn right! I'm a piss poor loser. Show me a happy loser and I'll show you a loser. I don't like losing, period. If I'm playing tiddly winks with my grandmother, I'm gonna try and beat her fifty to nothing.
Did I think the machine was gaffed? Hell, no. Did I think about taking a walk on the play. Hell, no. On these short term plays, if it was a play when I sat down on it, it'll be a play until I snap it off. Taking a walk is the worst thing you can do. At 2000 games I was stuck damn near double what the meter paid. But the meter was at $144. I came in on the play when the meter was at $104, or an 11% advantage. At $144 it's a 24% advantage. What? I was supposed to take a walk and find another play. Hell, no. So, I was stuck. So, what? I had a 24% play sitting right in front of me. I sat there until I snapped if off.
The 30 plays showed a $1057 profit. On turbo speed the game plays at 25 games per minute. Average seat time per play is 25 minutes. The hourly rate is over $80 per hour. I only get maybe 8 or 10 plays a month at this game. But it does add to the bottom line.
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