[vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

No, only the 29,000 initial deals matter.  The OP was talking about 29,000 rounds in a row without dealt quads.  The chances for that happening to anyone is simply (4164/4165)^29,000 = 0.000945666 = 1 in 1057.4558  That's it.


If you would rather look at it terms of dealt quad cycles, you can do it this way (closest dealt quad cycle to original poster in bold):
All answers will be close to 1/e^cycles where e = 2.718281828459045

4165 rounds:  ~1/e  actual 0.3678352736 = 1 in 2.7186082246
8330 rounds:  ~1/e^2  actual 0.1353027885 = 1 in 7.3908306791
12495 rounds: ~1/e^3 actual 0.0497691382 = 1 in 20.0927730712
16660 rounds: ~1/e^4 actual 0.0183068446 = 1 in 54.6243781272
20825 rounds:  ~1/e^5 actual 0.0067339032 = 1 in 148.5022836427
24990 rounds:  ~1/e^6 actual 0.0024769671 = 1 in 403.7195296895
29155 rounds:  ~1/e^7 actual 0.0009111159 = 1 in 1097.5552338636
33320 rounds: ~1/e^8 actual 0.0003351406 = 1 in 2983.8226857834
37485 rounds:  ~1/e^9 actual 0.0001232765 = 1 in 8111.8448944517
41650 rounds:  ~1/e^10 actual 0.0000453455 = 1 in 22052.9282470973

Now all these results above WILL happen at some point on a random video poker machine.  So just the 29,000 hands in a row without a dealt quad is not enough proof of anything "rigged".

Keep in mind I have not considered any of the OP's other claims at this point in a "rigged" determination.  If you lump everything he wrote together, it's possible the machine is rigged.  The casino is well within its right to break multiple states' laws and risk its future well-being by "rigging" machines. Rob Singer disturbingly emailed me about my previous response and called me an "addict" because I generally trust that casinos generally obey state laws.  With the tons of 8/5 and 7/5 DDB that is constantly played in casinos across the country with over half of those players breaking 2 pair with Kings, Queens, or Jacks, why shouldn't I?

__._,_.___
Posted by: tringlomane@yahoo.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (15)

.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

The odds of any dealt 4oak is 4,164 to 1.  Why would they gaffe a machine when they have an edge on you?  They can always lower the paytable if they want.  Everyone who plays a lot has good and bad streaks.

__._,_.___
Posted by: cy4873@hotmail.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (14)

.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

I think you're being quick to dismiss the 29000 samples. It's not just 1 of 1000, it's 1 of 1000 of 29000 hands. If you take the summation of those independent trials you'd still have a very very small number 

On May 29, 2014, at 5:27 PM, "tringlomane@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

Yeah, the tolerance to say "yeah, it's rigged" is ill-defined because technically anything can happen on a random machine.  But anyone that has strong math background should realize 1 in 1000 isn't enough.  Some unlucky sap has to be 1 in 1000.


I probably start wondering when I hit 1 in a million or more.  Or several smaller events in the 5 to 6 digit range.

The strangest thing that ever happened to me wasn't at video poker, but playing online poker on PokerStars, the most trustworthy site of all online poker.  I got dealt 75432 4 times in a stretch of 16 hands.  Fortunately for me this was a lowball game, so this was the best possible hand actually.

I did the math on this because I just had to know:

Probability of being dealt 75432 (no flush) in any given hand:  1 in 2548.

Probability of being dealt 75432 (no flush) 4 or more times in exactly 16 hands while only playing 16 hands lifetime:  1 in 23.25 billion.

But in reality, I played many more hands than just 16 in my life, so here are a couple more relevant numbers:

Probability of this ever happening within 300,000 hands (about how many hands I played before "Black Friday"):  1 in 311,849

Probability of this ever happening within 1,000,000 hands:  1 in 93,272

The original hand histories with timestamps can be found here:
Did I experience something that looks completely rigged?  Yep.  Do I think PokerStars is rigged?  Nope.

__._,_.___
Posted by: funny.young.guy@gmail.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (13)

.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

Yeah, the tolerance to say "yeah, it's rigged" is ill-defined because technically anything can happen on a random machine.  But anyone that has strong math background should realize 1 in 1000 isn't enough.  Some unlucky sap has to be 1 in 1000.


I probably start wondering when I hit 1 in a million or more.  Or several smaller events in the 5 to 6 digit range.

The strangest thing that ever happened to me wasn't at video poker, but playing online poker on PokerStars, the most trustworthy site of all online poker.  I got dealt 75432 4 times in a stretch of 16 hands.  Fortunately for me this was a lowball game, so this was the best possible hand actually.

I did the math on this because I just had to know:

Probability of being dealt 75432 (no flush) in any given hand:  1 in 2548.

Probability of being dealt 75432 (no flush) 4 or more times in exactly 16 hands while only playing 16 hands lifetime:  1 in 23.25 billion.

But in reality, I played many more hands than just 16 in my life, so here are a couple more relevant numbers:

Probability of this ever happening within 300,000 hands (about how many hands I played before "Black Friday"):  1 in 311,849

Probability of this ever happening within 1,000,000 hands:  1 in 93,272

The original hand histories with timestamps can be found here:
Did I experience something that looks completely rigged?  Yep.  Do I think PokerStars is rigged?  Nope.

__._,_.___
Posted by: tringlomane@yahoo.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (12)

.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 27 MAY 2014

 

You're only fooling yourself if you think you can 'beat' this horrible under 99 percent game by extra mailers, less down time, etc... All you're doing is giving up 0.6 percent for nothing. Do you really think that the casino thinks 'well this guy plays so badly that we are going to give him great offers for playing 9-6 jacks'? Get real!!

Sent from my iPhone

__._,_.___
Posted by: Steve Norden <nordo123@aol.com>
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (9)

.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

No one knows. That's the problem. I've probably gone more than 10
cycles without hitting a royal on a 4 card draw on a single line
machine. That may be "odd," but what do I do with that information?

funny.young.guy@gmail.com wrote:

>In the spirit of the LVA boards: WHA?????
>
>So if not then, when would you consider it to be odd?
>
>> On May 29, 2014, at 3:28 PM, "tringlomane@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
>>
>> Going 29,000 rounds in row without a dealt natural four of a kind will happen about 1 in 1057.5 on a random machine. I wouldn't call it "rigged" just yet on that fact.
>>
>>
>>
>> I'm more wanting to know where 9/6 DDB w/QQ is in Illinois for quarters, it's definitely not listed on VPFree2.
>>
>>

__._,_.___
Posted by: 007 <007@embarqmail.com>
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (11)

.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

In the spirit of the LVA boards: WHA?????

So if not then, when would you consider it to be odd?

On May 29, 2014, at 3:28 PM, "tringlomane@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

  Going 29,000 rounds in row without a dealt natural four of a kind will happen about 1 in 1057.5 on a random machine.  I wouldn't call it "rigged" just yet on that fact.


I'm more wanting to know where 9/6 DDB w/QQ is in Illinois for quarters, it's definitely not listed on VPFree2.

__._,_.___
Posted by: funny.young.guy@gmail.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (10)

.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

  Going 29,000 rounds in row without a dealt natural four of a kind will happen about 1 in 1057.5 on a random machine.  I wouldn't call it "rigged" just yet on that fact.


I'm more wanting to know where 9/6 DDB w/QQ is in Illinois for quarters, it's definitely not listed on VPFree2.

__._,_.___
Posted by: tringlomane@yahoo.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (9)

.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 27 MAY 2014

 

For example, take the wizard's strategy generator:

Video Poker Strategy Calculator - Wizard of Odds


 



Select Jacks or Better and set the Royal to 0 and you get something like:

2 Pair or better
4 SF but not Ace high
High Pair
4 Flush
KQJT offsuit
Pair
4 Straight no gaps
3 SF no gaps or 2 high cards or more
AKQJ offsuit
3 Flush 1 high card or more
KQs, KJs ,QJs
4 Straight Ace high
3 SF with 1 high card
AKs, AQs, AJs
KQJ9 offsuit
3 SF one gap
KQJ offsuit
2 High Cards
1 High Card
3 SF two gaps
draw 5


Wizard shows an EV of 0.979491 and a Variance of 3.72 .

Now, you actually do get royals even with this strategy, so you have to add that back in:

For EV (return/cycle):
800/77,594.06=0.01

For Variance ((return-mean)^2/cycle):
(799)^2/77,594.06=8.23

So, the actual EV is 0.989491 and Variance is 11.95 .

You're only giving up about a half of a percent to maxEV strategy which you will easily make up when you consider longevity, mailers, tax benefits, down time for handpays, better "luck" at drawings, etc. The reduced variance and increased net edge also means a reduced bankroll requirment.

__._,_.___
Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (8)

.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 27 MAY 2014

 

If it's a handpay, the casino wants to know the exact person who's getting it. If it's not a handpay, the casino only cares about the total return of the machine, in other words the aggregate hold from all players combined.

__._,_.___
Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (7)

.

__,_._,___

RE: [vpFREE] Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

Well, thanks for your help so far. I didn't know where to go to find chance
for 4OAK on flop. So if I read correctly I take 54,145 divided by13 = 4165
for any 4OAK. So my roughly 29,000 hands puts me @ about 7 cycles.
Certainly possible, but still a little suspicious. I've been tracking other
factors.

I'm recording 40% -, 40%+, 100% -, 100%+, 3A -, 3A+, three 2,3,4-, three
2,3,4 +. Odd-, Odd+, as well as 4-to-royal. I'm calling Odd- those hands
where I start w/ 2/R & end up w/ 4/R or other strange looking plays. Odd+
is starting w/ 1pr, ending up w 4OAK, plus other strange occurrences. Of
course this does slow my play somewhat. Most of the other stuff looks
relatively OK, long term. It's the dealt 4OAK. I plan to stick w/ it for
now. I may research how to get ahold of gaming outside casino. Limited
research gave me info on Illinois gaming web site, but couldn't come up w/
phone # or email. I'll investigate further B4 I give up. I am after all
"hooked on QQ".

From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com]
Sent: Thursday, May 29, 2014 2:30 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

James Beam wrote:

Each 4 of a kind (not including quick quads) is dealt every 54,145
hands. If you want to include dealt quick quads, each 3 of a kind is
dealt every 615.284 hands and every full house is dealt every 108,290
hands, so 222AA and 44422 are dealt every 108,290 hands and 333A2 and
444A3 are each dealt every 40,608.75 hands.

The problem I've always had with this approach is that you're still
left guessing. After you've analyzed your results and determined how
likely they were, you still don't know how likely it is that the
machine is gaffed.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

__._,_.___
Posted by: "Eudaley" <dje59@mchsi.com>
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (8)

.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

James Beam wrote:

>OK thanks. The rough number I'm coming up with is 9500 hands. I know
>there's some solid math brains on here so I'll present my approach and you
>guys can tell me where the holes are:
>
>1 - I'm using numbers from WoO for QQ Double Bonus at:
>http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/quick-quads/
>
>2 - I'm ignoring pay tables since we are talking about flopped hands here,
>the pay tables shouldn't matter. So that gives me:
>Aces - 0.00023
>2-4 - 0.001205
>NOTE: Its unclear whether these are flopped numbers or numbers for drawn
>hands. It might be the latter, but we can use these for now.

Those are for drawn hands.

>3 - These are mutually exclusive events so we can add them and come up with
>a combined probability of 0.001435. We will call this our n-proportion value
>
>4 - The formula for significant events is summed as:
>(Z-alpha/2) ^ 2 * n * (1-n) / E ^ 2
>where Z-alpha represents our distribution and E represents the desired
>margin of error
>
>5 - From a standard statistic t-table, for 99% distribution we draw a value
>of 2.576 for the Z-alpha/2 value. We then use an E value of 0.1% = 0.001
>
>6 - That leaves us with: 2.576^2*0.001435*0.998565 / 0.001^2 = 9508.674 or
>roughly 9500 hands
>
>That number still strikes me as low. I'm going to guess that the numbers
>from #2 above are for drawn hands, not just flopped. I have a feeling the
>flopped numbers are much smaller than these. If someone has those, we can
>re-work using the formula above.

Each 4 of a kind (not including quick quads) is dealt every 54,145
hands. If you want to include dealt quick quads, each 3 of a kind is
dealt every 615.284 hands and every full house is dealt every 108,290
hands, so 222AA and 44422 are dealt every 108,290 hands and 333A2 and
444A3 are each dealt every 40,608.75 hands.

The problem I've always had with this approach is that you're still
left guessing. After you've analyzed your results and determined how
likely they were, you still don't know how likely it is that the
machine is gaffed.

__._,_.___
Posted by: 007 <007@embarqmail.com>
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (7)

.

__,_._,___
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)