James Beam wrote:
>OK thanks. The rough number I'm coming up with is 9500 hands. I know
>there's some solid math brains on here so I'll present my approach and you
>guys can tell me where the holes are:
>
>1 - I'm using numbers from WoO for QQ Double Bonus at:
>http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/quick-quads/
>
>2 - I'm ignoring pay tables since we are talking about flopped hands here,
>the pay tables shouldn't matter. So that gives me:
>Aces - 0.00023
>2-4 - 0.001205
>NOTE: Its unclear whether these are flopped numbers or numbers for drawn
>hands. It might be the latter, but we can use these for now.
Those are for drawn hands.
>3 - These are mutually exclusive events so we can add them and come up with
>a combined probability of 0.001435. We will call this our n-proportion value
>
>4 - The formula for significant events is summed as:
>(Z-alpha/2) ^ 2 * n * (1-n) / E ^ 2
>where Z-alpha represents our distribution and E represents the desired
>margin of error
>
>5 - From a standard statistic t-table, for 99% distribution we draw a value
>of 2.576 for the Z-alpha/2 value. We then use an E value of 0.1% = 0.001
>
>6 - That leaves us with: 2.576^2*0.001435*0.998565 / 0.001^2 = 9508.674 or
>roughly 9500 hands
>
>That number still strikes me as low. I'm going to guess that the numbers
>from #2 above are for drawn hands, not just flopped. I have a feeling the
>flopped numbers are much smaller than these. If someone has those, we can
>re-work using the formula above.
Each 4 of a kind (not including quick quads) is dealt every 54,145
hands. If you want to include dealt quick quads, each 3 of a kind is
dealt every 615.284 hands and every full house is dealt every 108,290
hands, so 222AA and 44422 are dealt every 108,290 hands and 333A2 and
444A3 are each dealt every 40,608.75 hands.
The problem I've always had with this approach is that you're still
left guessing. After you've analyzed your results and determined how
likely they were, you still don't know how likely it is that the
machine is gaffed.
Posted by: 007 <007@embarqmail.com>
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