Re: [vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

I think you're being quick to dismiss the 29000 samples. It's not just 1 of 1000, it's 1 of 1000 of 29000 hands. If you take the summation of those independent trials you'd still have a very very small number 

On May 29, 2014, at 5:27 PM, "tringlomane@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

Yeah, the tolerance to say "yeah, it's rigged" is ill-defined because technically anything can happen on a random machine.  But anyone that has strong math background should realize 1 in 1000 isn't enough.  Some unlucky sap has to be 1 in 1000.


I probably start wondering when I hit 1 in a million or more.  Or several smaller events in the 5 to 6 digit range.

The strangest thing that ever happened to me wasn't at video poker, but playing online poker on PokerStars, the most trustworthy site of all online poker.  I got dealt 75432 4 times in a stretch of 16 hands.  Fortunately for me this was a lowball game, so this was the best possible hand actually.

I did the math on this because I just had to know:

Probability of being dealt 75432 (no flush) in any given hand:  1 in 2548.

Probability of being dealt 75432 (no flush) 4 or more times in exactly 16 hands while only playing 16 hands lifetime:  1 in 23.25 billion.

But in reality, I played many more hands than just 16 in my life, so here are a couple more relevant numbers:

Probability of this ever happening within 300,000 hands (about how many hands I played before "Black Friday"):  1 in 311,849

Probability of this ever happening within 1,000,000 hands:  1 in 93,272

The original hand histories with timestamps can be found here:
Did I experience something that looks completely rigged?  Yep.  Do I think PokerStars is rigged?  Nope.

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