OK thanks. The rough number I'm coming up with is 9500 hands. I know there's some solid math brains on here so I'll present my approach and you guys can tell me where the holes are:
1 - I'm using numbers from WoO for QQ Double Bonus at: http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/quick-quads/
2 - I'm ignoring pay tables since we are talking about flopped hands here, the pay tables shouldn't matter. So that gives me:
Aces - 0.00023
2-4 - 0.001205
NOTE: Its unclear whether these are flopped numbers or numbers for drawn hands. It might be the latter, but we can use these for now.
3 - These are mutually exclusive events so we can add them and come up with a combined probability of 0.001435. We will call this our n-proportion value
4 - The formula for significant events is summed as:
(Z-alpha/2) ^ 2 * n * (1-n) / E ^ 2
where Z-alpha represents our distribution and E represents the desired margin of error
5 - From a standard statistic t-table, for 99% distribution we draw a value of 2.576 for the Z-alpha/2 value. We then use an E value of 0.1% = 0.001
6 - That leaves us with: 2.576^2*0.001435*0.998565 / 0.001^2 = 9508.674 or roughly 9500 hands
That number still strikes me as low. I'm going to guess that the numbers from #2 above are for drawn hands, not just flopped. I have a feeling the flopped numbers are much smaller than these. If someone has those, we can re-work using the formula above.
Thanks!
On Thu, May 29, 2014 at 11:09 AM, dje59@mchsi.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
I don't know or remember how often a dealt 4OAK should occur, but I suspect I could go back into one of my Dancer books to find out. It's a little tuff to say exactly how many hands/ hour, etc I play cuz it depends if there's points multipliers or I'm building points for a promo, Probably half the time I'm playing at "my" fast level...about 4722 H/Hr. Course that makes dealt hands 1/10 of that or about 450/hr. I haven't really timed myself when I'm playing slower...probably 2/3rds that. So for arguments sake, at 300 dealt hands/hr, times 12 hours/wk times 8 (at least) weeks since I've hit dealt 4OAK...about 29K dealt hands since 4OAK.
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Posted by: James Beam <funny.young.guy@gmail.com>
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