Yeah, the tolerance to say "yeah, it's rigged" is ill-defined because technically anything can happen on a random machine. But anyone that has strong math background should realize 1 in 1000 isn't enough. Some unlucky sap has to be 1 in 1000.
I probably start wondering when I hit 1 in a million or more. Or several smaller events in the 5 to 6 digit range.
The strangest thing that ever happened to me wasn't at video poker, but playing online poker on PokerStars, the most trustworthy site of all online poker. I got dealt 75432 4 times in a stretch of 16 hands. Fortunately for me this was a lowball game, so this was the best possible hand actually.
I did the math on this because I just had to know:
Probability of being dealt 75432 (no flush) in any given hand: 1 in 2548.
Probability of being dealt 75432 (no flush) 4 or more times in exactly 16 hands while only playing 16 hands lifetime: 1 in 23.25 billion.
But in reality, I played many more hands than just 16 in my life, so here are a couple more relevant numbers:
Probability of this ever happening within 300,000 hands (about how many hands I played before "Black Friday"): 1 in 311,849
Probability of this ever happening within 1,000,000 hands: 1 in 93,272
The original hand histories with timestamps can be found here:
Did I experience something that looks completely rigged? Yep. Do I think PokerStars is rigged? Nope.
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Posted by: tringlomane@yahoo.com
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