Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

>Wait a minute, my own question is confusing me. You included non-progressives too. My head hurts.
>
>
>---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bobbartop@...> wrote :
>
> Again, please dumb it down for me one more time. Is this scenario ONLY when you have the jackpot locked up, either as a team or with someone to trade off with you but not let any outsiders gain access? Thanks.

It's just a matter of what costs are associated with hitting jackpots.
They're often hard to quantify. How hitting jackpots will affect what
mailers you'll get is usually hard to say. Some casinos may go out of
their way to invite people who have hit jackpots back. The cost of
hitting a progressive jackpot depends on how good the progressive was,
how much competition there was, how much longer you would have played,
what else you could be doing, etc. It may be hard to quantify, but
it's difficult to imagine there being no cost.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

And I would be doing this because why? I'm at an airport?


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote :

Another example, say you were going to play Airport Deuces (800-200-25-15-9-4-4-3-2-1) at LAS, which is almost a 99% return game with no slot club,



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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

Another example, say you were going to play Airport Deuces (800-200-25-15-9-4-4-3-2-1) at LAS, which is almost a 99% return game with no slot club, a game that is hard to find at the posh strip hotels. The breakeven royal is about 1200 bets. If you were dealt a one deuce wild royal, you would drop the deuce and go for the royal. If there was a reasonable slot club and you had time, you would keep the wild royal.

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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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RE: [vpFREE] Release announcement: Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0

 

Bravo! sounds like a major upgrade in the video poker knowledge base at an extremely reasonable price.

Bob



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Posted by: Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@hotmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Release announcement: Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0

 

I have (finally!) completed a major upgrade to Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker. Version 2.0 is the first upgrade in 9 years, and it incorporates a lot of new features. If you'd like to try out a demo version, email me at h_dunbar@hotmail.com.


One new feature I'm excited about is the ability to see what happens to your bankroll when you play a series of different games. For example, say you are going to Las Vegas and you plan to play about 5 hours of $1 NSUD, followed by 4 hours of 25c JOB 10-play. After that, you'd like to put in a few hours of $2 DDB. How much money will you need to bring to do that amount of play? DRA-VP 2.0 will tell you. You can see the combined effect on your bankroll of playing up to 5 different games on a trip, as well as the interim results after each individual game.

Here are some of the other new features in v2.0:·
· You can now do bankroll risk calculations on 46 multi-line video poker games.
· You can now include progressive jackpots.
· You can now include a jackpot bonus.
· You can now see how stopping when you hit a royal flush affects your bankroll.
· You can now see what happens to your overall results if you plan to stop when you reach a specified "Goal".
· DRA-VP 2.0 comes with twice as many (54) pre-loaded video poker games as v1.5.

As before, DRA-VP 2.0 can answer questions like these:
·How much money do I need to bring with me to have just a 1% chance of going broke in 10 hours of play? What if I want to play 20 hours?
·What is my long term chance of going broke if I start with $2,000?
·What is the chance I will be $3,000 ahead at some point during a 20-hour trip?
·How does cashback affect my bankroll requirements? What about tipping?
·What is the effect of occasional play errors on my risk of ruin?
·How does state tax withholding affect my bankroll requirements?
·What is the chance I will end my trip with at least a 20% gain in bankroll? A 40% gain?
·What is the chance I will have lost more than 60% of my bankroll at the end of a trip?
·What is the chance I will bust out before I've played 16 hours of a planned 20 hours?
·How long do I have to play this game to have about a 5/6 chance of being ahead?

DRA-VP 2.0 comes pre-loaded with 54 video poker pay schedules (46 are also 3-, 5-, 10-line) and room for another 50 custom games. It's easy to use and runs on any PC with Excel 2002 or later. (Sorry, it will not run on a Mac)



The price at ShopLVA.com is $19.95. It's available on CD, or can also be ordered as a download. If you already own DRA-VP 1.0 or 1.5, you can upgrade for $12.00.


Shoot me an email if you have any questions or want to try the demo.



--Dunbar



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Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

Excellent post, Mickey! That is a really clear way of looking at it.

--Dunbar


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mickeycrimm@...> wrote :

I think I finally have grasped the concept. In 9/6 Jacks, using a strategy based on a 4000 coin royal the frequency is 40,391. That would be the 99.54% version. You would be taking a 2.45% drop between royals.

Using a strategy based on a 2888 coin royal (this would be a 99% game, not including the 1% meter) stretches the royal odds out to 47,245. But you would only be taking a 2.18% drop between royals.

The 99.54% version has a cost of $4950 per royal. The 99% version has a cost of $5150 per royal. That's a $200 difference. But with the 99% version you would generate an extra $343 in meter movement per royal.

This would hardly seem worth it to me. But I think Frank was working in the era when there were lots of stronger meters. I think they were playing a lot of 8/5 Jacks with 2% and 3% meters.

The strongest royal meter I've ever seen was on a bank of 2 Pair Pays Even Money Tens or Better at Harvey's in Lake Tahoe in the late nineties. This game was just 90% but it had a 10% royal meter on it. I seen at least one team working that bank.

And I think Frank said that they only used the min-cost strategy when things were slow. If they had another location to send the team to after the royal was hit they wouldn't use it. .


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Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com
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