[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 18 MAY 2015

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 18 MAY 2015

CALL TO ACTION – Stop IRS CHANGES

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=3898

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Posted by: vpFREE3355 <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] My latest rant: Trick or REIT!

 


er... "from eBay".

(lots going on in my mind today ;)

Yes, "done deal". But still slated for later this year, thus "prospective".



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote :

Misspoke in the "heat" of ranting: meant to refer to the coming spinoff of Paypal from Amazon.

Thanks.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mike@...> wrote :

Uh... that would be the done deal that's the separation of eBay and
PayPal. Everything else you said was spot on.

On 5/18/2015 6:30 PM, harry.porter@... mailto:harry.porter@... [vpFREE] wrote:
> The prospective separation of ebay and Amazon is a key example.



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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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Re: [vpFREE] My latest rant: Trick or REIT!

 


Misspoke in the "heat" of ranting: meant to refer to the coming spinoff of Paypal from Amazon.

Thanks.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mike@...> wrote :

Uh... that would be the done deal that's the separation of eBay and
PayPal. Everything else you said was spot on.

On 5/18/2015 6:30 PM, harry.porter@... mailto:harry.porter@... [vpFREE] wrote:
> The prospective separation of ebay and Amazon is a key example.


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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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Re: [vpFREE] My latest rant: Trick or REIT!

Uh... that would be the done deal that's the separation of eBay and
PayPal. Everything else you said was spot on.

On 5/18/2015 6:30 PM, harry.porter@verizon.net [vpFREE] wrote:
> The prospective separation of ebay and Amazon is a key example.


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[vpFREE] My latest rant: Trick or REIT!

 

Can't hold it in: First CZR starts dicking around with the idea that they're going to create value by carving their real estate holdings out into a separate Real Estate Investment Trust (leasing the properties back to the casino operations).

Now, I hear that there's a battle for board seats at MGM among those proponents who think the current board has overlooked a ripe opportunity to create shareholder value with a similar move.

For Judas' sake, what's next ... they're going to figure out how to create derivative securites from the REITS?

Now, don't get me wrong ... my finance training is from a school that was the genesis of a lot of wonderful and imaginative financial wizardry, most of which I have great respect for. (In case you wonder, I'm talking Wharton, not Hogwart's ... though many have difficulty telling the two apart).

But anytime someone tells you that they're going to take 2+2 and create 6, the appropriate reaction is skepticism (not avid greed).

There actually is some sound logic that can explain why certain business disassemblies make sense from a shareholder perspective. The prospective separation of ebay and Amazon is a key example.

But, unfortunately, some have latched onto the fundamentals of REIT valuation and decided that you do get 2+2=6 if you simply split out captive real estate into it's own company. This works if the real estate has intrinsic value that makes it attractive in a multi-use scenario.

An example of this are shopping malls. Reconfiguring defunct shopping mall property as an office complex (among other possibilities) in market that is bidding up office space isn't at all beyond imagination.

But I invite you to look at most any defunct casino property and check the value at which it was "re-purposed" (if it was, at all). Anybody know how many cents on the dollar Revel or Showboat are going for?

It's a ridiculous fallacy that you can simply stake a REIT sign in front of any business property and create value. CZR will only wake up to that fact after market realities ultimately force them to take huge write-downs on these REITs, likely more than wiping out the wealth they dream of creating today with a stroke of a pen.





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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: I found a mistake

 

Is this update out yet?

On Thu, Apr 23, 2015 at 10:54 AM, h_dunbar@hotmail.com [vpFREE] <
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

>
>
> "DRA-VP" is Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker", and it does do the
> things you mentioned. For a session or trip of any specified length, it
> gets the results by simulation. For infinite play (with an advantage), it
> get the result using the jazbo/sorokin equation: (
> http://blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm)
>
> DRA-VP is available at ShopLVA.com and GamblersBookClub.com. However, I'm
> very close to releasing a major upgrade, so I suggest holding off buying it
> until the upgrade is available. (probably 2-3 weeks).
>
>
> --Dunbar
>
>
> ---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <wicker628@...> wrote :
>
> Dunbar says all calcs were done with DRA-VP.What is DRA-VP? I'm looking
> for some instrument that can show me what my expected distribution of
> results & their frequency is for any given paytable and assuming perfect
> strategy play.Are these probability distributions calculated or simulation
> derived? Does VPW have a simulation feature whereby this info can be
> acquired?
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>

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Posted by: "Gregory Bart Jr." <broncosaurus@gmail.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??

 

I'll agree with that. I do believe, however that a 9/5 ddb progressive would probably show a theo that is higher for the house than a 9/6 ddb non progressive. I also believe that playing the 9/5 ddb progressive would not flag anyone as a threat to a casino, because even at the level that the game was hit, at that point the game was still only a 99% return. The original poster could consider converting his play to slots, it's possible that Boyd would forgive a slot player from winning on occasion.

Regards
A.P.

From: mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, May 18, 2015 1:18 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??

Well, the current meter isn't factored in determining the theoretical or a progressive, but it's my experience to a greater or lesser extent both the base return and the meter advance rate (as a % of coin-in) both factor.

Still, I'm not saying that a casino sets theo differently for a progressive than for standard game -- in most cases, the casino reviews their overall hold and sets theo accordingly.

As such, progressives tend to have thinner theo's than their non-progressive counterparts. There are no fast and hard rules about this that are universally true, but I suggest this is generally true.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <ehpee@...> wrote :

Generally speaking progressives don't cut the theoretical. Most casinos use the base return for the theoretical. It's your actual that is your problem.

Regards
A.P.

From: mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, May 18, 2015 10:58 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??

Thanks all for your replies--to clarify, it was the 9 5 DDB progressive bank by the theatre (right next to the vacant business centre). (To Jean, I neglected to mention that of course I had my Video Poker Scout guide with me--do believe the $1500 progressive made it a somewhat positive play, which in hindsight, surely would have cut the theoretical).

And the cutback still meant I could get me my free rooms, but the point of the O.P. was that given the amount of play I put through, I had thought that offers would have improved, if anything.

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Posted by: "Albert Pearson" <ehpee@rogers.com>
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[vpFREE] Re: Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??

 

you wrote: "it was the 9 5 DDB progressive bank by the theatre (right next to the vacant business centre). (To Jean, I neglected to mention that of course I had my Video Poker Scout guide with me--do believe the $1500 progressive made it a somewhat positive play, which in hindsight, surely would have cut the theoretical)."

__________________________________________________________
How's a $1500 royal make 9/5 DDB a positive play?
Seat of pants it's hovering just below 99%.


Lot's of folks do well on 9/5 DDB in the short term but in the long run it's bad.
Get that progressive up to $2K and it becomes a fair bet. Sort of. YMMV


Our MSS experience is 50% cut back on FP from $200 to $100 with room and free food card.


3 weeks ago left the joint slightly ahead playing almost exclusively the $1 10/7 DB@ ~$30K/day.
We have lost at MSS with no W-2's last few years.
None-the-less, future offers may be cutback from them. Wouldn't be surprised, if free food card is withdrawn.


Our rooms and the casino are our cup-of-tea and we like the host/staff.
But hovering on saying goodbye.













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Posted by: haaljo@yahoo.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??

 


Well, the current meter isn't factored in determining the theoretical or a progressive, but it's my experience to a greater or lesser extent both the base return and the meter advance rate (as a % of coin-in) both factor.

Still, I'm not saying that a casino sets theo differently for a progressive than for standard game -- in most cases, the casino reviews their overall hold and sets theo accordingly.

As such, progressives tend to have thinner theo's than their non-progressive counterparts. There are no fast and hard rules about this that are universally true, but I suggest this is generally true.



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <ehpee@...> wrote :

Generally speaking progressives don't cut the theoretical. Most casinos use the base return for the theoretical. It's your actual that is your problem.

Regards
A.P.

From: mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, May 18, 2015 10:58 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??


Thanks all for your replies--to clarify, it was the 9 5 DDB progressive bank by the theatre (right next to the vacant business centre). (To Jean, I neglected to mention that of course I had my Video Poker Scout guide with me--do believe the $1500 progressive made it a somewhat positive play, which in hindsight, surely would have cut the theoretical).

And the cutback still meant I could get me my free rooms, but the point of the O.P. was that given the amount of play I put through, I had thought that offers would have improved, if anything.


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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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Re: [vpFREE] Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??

 

My offers from Sam's Town have been up and down over the years. I
figure they are going through their "weed and feed" period. Seeing what
they can get away with and still have returning players. Probably also
associated with their FPDW cutback.

I only play at the 25 cent level but have gotten room/food offers from
the Eastside Cannery with much less play then ST. On our last visit, EC
upgraded us to a suite which was very nice.

lasvegaspilgrim@gmail.com [vpFREE] wrote:

>Got back from a week in Las Vegas--stayed at and played at mostly 4 Boyd properties--SunCoast, Gold Coast, Orleans and Sam's Town. Even though I went there mainly to see Fleetwood Mac, and gambling was secondary, I came back a small winner, thanks to advice from this group. Mostly played 99.5% or better machines at the first three properties, and, despite my better judgment, the DDB $0.25 progressive machine at Sam's Town. Again, despite my intentions, wound up doing more gambling in total than I did on last several trips combined--rolled up 30-odd thousand points, and, beating the short term odds, hit a $1,500 Royal at Sam's Town. So going through multiple thousands of dollars at each property (getting bonus multipliers on Seniors Days helped out--cashed out $170 off my points--every little bit counts), I got home ahead of the game, waiting for my offers to change. And boy did they--3 out of 4 stayed the same out into August and September, and Sam's Town's went from 3 free days (any day) to 3 free days (Sun-Thurs).
>
>
> Between all the property offers, I'll still get my week free of hotel bills, but it does make one wonder--presuming of course, that the BConnected computers correctly tracked and are aware of my play, am I that much of a profit problem for the casino that my Sam's Town offers are cut, to discourage my going there? I thought casinos in Las Vegas have recovered from the Great Recession, and are making money? Did not meticulously track my coin in, but someone who runs through say, $5,000 in a couple of days be worth some free rooms, especially off the Strip?? I actually figured I'd get upgraded--big difference is that I am a net winner at Sam's Town, and probably net negative or close to even at the the other three. Of course I played zero slots, because, as you would all expect, my short term variations are always vastly to the negative.
>
>
> So back to the subject of the post, which is not accurate, in that I'm not smart to have played the DDB at Sam's Town, but was lucky enough to have been a winner there, it looks like Sam's is rolling back the red carpet. This is what Bob and Richard have been alluding to on GWAE podcast, but does it not seem to be kind of a hard hit to the low rollers? I can imagine being a profit concern if I was played $25 FPDW, if such a game existed at Boyd properties (of course VPFREE2 tells me I won't need to look for it, because it aint there), but at the 25 cent level??
>
>
> Sorry for the long rant, but after spending many more hours (and throwing much more money through than usual at the machines), it seems like a very unpleasant move by the property towards my play. Just seeing what the experts here figure--am I being unreasonable in my expectations???
>
>
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>
>
>
>

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Posted by: vp-connoisseur <cacti-az@cox.net>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??

 

Generally speaking progressives don't cut the theoretical. Most casinos use the base return for the theoretical. It's your actual that is your problem.

Regards
A.P.

From: mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, May 18, 2015 10:58 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??

Thanks all for your replies--to clarify, it was the 9 5 DDB progressive bank by the theatre (right next to the vacant business centre). (To Jean, I neglected to mention that of course I had my Video Poker Scout guide with me--do believe the $1500 progressive made it a somewhat positive play, which in hindsight, surely would have cut the theoretical).

And the cutback still meant I could get me my free rooms, but the point of the O.P. was that given the amount of play I put through, I had thought that offers would have improved, if anything.

Not trying to get rich by this, just trying to get the best deal, so that the trip costs are reduced.

Thanks again for all the feedback, will keep my head up in the future!!

Cheers!!

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Posted by: "Albert Pearson" <ehpee@rogers.com>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (8)

.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??

 

Thanks all for your replies--to clarify, it was the 9 5 DDB progressive bank by the theatre (right next to the vacant business centre). (To Jean, I neglected to mention that of course I had my Video Poker Scout guide with me--do believe the $1500 progressive made it a somewhat positive play, which in hindsight, surely would have cut the theoretical).

And the cutback still meant I could get me my free rooms, but the point of the O.P. was that given the amount of play I put through, I had thought that offers would have improved, if anything.


Not trying to get rich by this, just trying to get the best deal, so that the trip costs are reduced.


Thanks again for all the feedback, will keep my head up in the future!!


Cheers!!






[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Posted by: lasvegaspilgrim@gmail.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??

 

The marketing changes have occurred within the last 2 years, before that, they looked at your action only.

Regards
A.P.

From: mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, May 17, 2015 11:05 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Comp Cutbacks from Boyd properties for "smart" and/or "winning" player??

Don't have first hand experience for these properties from which to comment, but am willing to speculate.

First, I played Sam's Town in Tunica with a consistent run of good luck and never saw my offers adversely impacted. Still, that experience is dated by almost 2 years, so may not be applicable.

But, frankly, if Boyd were to take adverse action based upon you win/loss experience, I certainly would expect it to be applied across the board. Instead, I'd simply assume that the DDB progressive you played has a thin rating. Consequently, while you coin-in may have been strong, the rating may be much weaker than you typically establish ... thus the selective downgrade in offers.

Mere speculation; but I'd put a certain amount of confidence in it.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <lasvegaspilgrim@...> wrote :

Got back from a week in Las Vegas--stayed at and played at mostly 4 Boyd properties--SunCoast, Gold Coast, Orleans and Sam's Town. Even though I went there mainly to see Fleetwood Mac, and gambling was secondary, I came back a small winner, thanks to advice from this group. Mostly played 99.5% or better machines at the first three properties, and, despite my better judgment, the DDB $0.25 progressive machine at Sam's Town. Again, despite my intentions, wound up doing more gambling in total than I did on last several trips combined--rolled up 30-odd thousand points, and, beating the short term odds, hit a $1,500 Royal at Sam's Town. So going through multiple thousands of dollars at each property (getting bonus multipliers on Seniors Days helped out--cashed out $170 off my points--every little bit counts), I got home ahead of the game, waiting for my offers to change. And boy did they--3 out of 4 stayed the same out into August and September, and Sam's Town's went from 3 free days (any day) to 3 free days (Sun-Thurs).

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Posted by: "Albert Pearson" <ehpee@rogers.com>
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