1 deuce: 3Kind > 4SFD
0 deuce: pair > 3SF0
----- Original Message -----
From: <lfcmja@verizon.net>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Friday, April 13, 2012 5:49 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] LV Airport Deuces Strategy ?
> Is there any info available re the strategy for this game or is it just a
> small modification to NSU strategy ?
>
> Larry F.
>
>
>
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "lfcmja@..." <lfcmja@...> wrote:
>
> Is there any info available re the strategy for this game....
>
Yes. Practically a whole book on it.
Very close to basic 16-10 NSUD strategy. (Many of the extremely close
penalty card plays in 16-10 do not apply to Airport 2s.) One change is that
all open straights containing one deuce are playable. Ex QJT23 is played as
QJT2. In NSUD the fifth card being a 3 changes this to stiff 2.
Holding 22+JT suited plus a J or a T is an exactly equal choice between
22JTs and 22+JJ or 22+TT.
I hope you have significant comps or a progressive tied to airport 2s as
this give has a house edge of almost 1.1%. (If it is a progressive you have
a whole new batch of adjustments to worry about.)
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
lfcmja@verizon.net
Sent: Friday, April 13, 2012 4:49 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] LV Airport Deuces Strategy ?
Is there any info available re the strategy for this game or is it just a
small modification to NSU strategy ?
Larry F.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 13 APR 2012
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm
<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm</a>
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Is there any info available re the strategy for this game or is it just a small modification to NSU strategy ?
Larry F.
I think any casino floor manager knows or soon learns that they can't 100% trust the manufacturers or government regulation, caveat emptor as they say. I like Mitchell's suggestion, know what the standard deviation is in advance and if you find yourself under it or a multiple (2sd, 3sd ...) then it's time to do some investigation and maybe make some changes. You have to drsw the line at some point, what will it be? 2sd? 5sd? 10sd? Obviously at some point you will run out of money if you continue with your study of how bad the machines can run. The answer is a machine can run much worse than most people even imagine. And it can continue to get even worse. There is no "regression to the mean" in most gambling, so you're just fooling yourself if you think things have to turn around. Or use Frank's new utility that he's about to announce. Problems could be something as simple as that you're making a lot more play mistakes than you think you are, or something more complicated. Of course if you find yourself over, it's time to work on keeping under the radar, despite what they say, nobody really likes winners, other than themselves or partners of course.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:
>
> If Gaming does their chi square and other testing that we read in the regs that they do--and that mike rightfully questions whether they really ever do it at all--and the machines are a-ok & within spec, if everything is truly random then I question why ANY such machine would ever be taken out of service.
>
> I've seen machines removed with the reason given that they "win too much" while following up on this issue when I wrote for GT, but I could never find anything remotely close to an example even after intense questioning, about machines being removed because they were too big a loser for the players.
>
> It just doesn't make sense to replace any machine if they are indeed as fair as the printed regs say they are.
>
> Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone
>
> ----- Reply message -----
> From: "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...>
> To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: how to tell if your machine is fair?
> Date: Thu, Apr 12, 2012 10:48 am
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
>
> > Any machine that has a significant deviation from the expected win/loss is replaced.
>
>
>
> They definitely pull any machine that pays out more than expected, but I question if any casino has ever pulled a machine that has held more than expected. In addition, video poker and other slots that involve skill have another complication that plain old luck only slots don't have, that being that the return is also a function of how the machines are played.
>
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> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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Tom, I think you are getting bogged down on the "never sure" aspect of probability. While it's true one can never be absolutely sure, one can be a lot more sure than mere guessing. There are currently people out there with no knowledge of probability math that have convinced themselves of whatever they wanted to believe with no systematic process behind that belief whatsoever.
Anything, no matter how flawed has to be better than that.
Additionally, I'm primarily creating this utility as an extra FUN thing people can add to their play.
It doesn't need to prove or disprove anything to be fun.
Some people really like tracking their play and now they'll have a better tool to do that.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:
>
> greeklandjohnny wrote:
>
> >Here's a quickie outline of what the process should be:
> >
> >1) figure out what you want to prove. This can be due to previous play, rumors, second hand stories or whatever. Note that the previous play cannot be used to confirm or refute the hypothesis.
> > You need to make this very specific
> >
> >2) Set up your experiment.
> >
> >3) decide on your acceptance criteria
> >
> >4) Post the info and let the stats guys go at it.
> >
> >For example, Miss Craps recently posted about going 0 for 35 on dealt trips on 10 play ( converting to quads). This is step 1. Miss Craps believes that the machines she was playing have a quad distibution outside the normal range. So, her hypothesis is that On machine xxx, the distribution of quads is much less can be expected.
> >
> >For step 2, you need to choose sample size and parameters. I will play 2000 dealt hands of triple play and record the number of times I am dealt trips and the number of times I convert them. I will also keep track of the total number of quads in the sample as an additional measure
> >
> >For step 3, I can pick 90% sure, 95% sure, 99% sure or whatever number I want. I will need to adjust the number of samples based on the frequency of the event and the confidence level
> >
> >Post the information and see what the group thinks.
> >
> >Is this a major pain? Sure it is. But is the only way to really know if there is an issue or not.
>
> I don't see how this is adequate. What number are you trying to
> determine? If the sample is x standard deviations from expected, what
> chance of a gaffed machine does that translate to? A variable is
> missing, but I'm not sure how to describe it. I've gone through the
> kind of process you described and made conclusions based on it, but I
> never ended up with a number which enabled me to say "I'm x% sure
> what's being tested is gaffed." I still had to guess. At what point
> is the probability that the machine is gaffed, say, 50%? Besides not
> liking the idea of there being a significant possibility of going
> years without winning even if the machines are fair, that I despair of
> empirically proving they are fair is another reason I don't like
> playing with a small theoretical advantage. Ultimately, it involves
> trusting government.
>
I just found this thread. It was my B-Day this week and I've been taking time off from everything.
I like your description of the testing process and will include a lot of what you said in the manual.
I'm a month or more from completing the utility.
One thing, you can't use this utility on previous results. Most will understand why, some may not. So in your example of the gal that posted about running bad on 4K's, she'd have to go back and run another test after she suspected something was amiss. She could not go home plug in her preexisting results and learn anything. Statistical test cannot be used on anything that's already happened, or else one opens the door for selective recruitment and confirmation bias.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, greeklandjohnny@... wrote:
>
>
> Frank started up a discussion on this topic a while ago. Originally it was going to be moved off of vpfree and then decided to remain on vpfree. I haven't seen the final product yet.
>
> For those of you who wonder about such things, if you were to state your hypothesis and say what measurement you would accept to either prove or disprove your hypothesis, I'm sure the throngs of stats people on this board would tell you if your experiment is valid or not. ( Frank's program may do all of this already).
>
> Here's a quickie outline of what the process should be:
>
> 1) figure out what you want to prove. This can be due to previous play, rumors, second hand stories or whatever. Note that the previous play cannot be used to confirm or refute the hypothesis.
> You need to make this very specific
>
> 2) Set up your experiment.
>
> 3) decide on your acceptance criteria
>
> 4) Post the info and let the stats guys go at it.
>
> For example, Miss Craps recently posted about going 0 for 35 on dealt trips on 10 play ( converting to quads). This is step 1. Miss Craps believes that the machines she was playing have a quad distibution outside the normal range. So, her hypothesis is that On machine xxx, the distribution of quads is much less can be expected.
>
> For step 2, you need to choose sample size and parameters. I will play 2000 dealt hands of triple play and record the number of times I am dealt trips and the number of times I convert them. I will also keep track of the total number of quads in the sample as an additional measure
>
> For step 3, I can pick 90% sure, 95% sure, 99% sure or whatever number I want. I will need to adjust the number of samples based on the frequency of the event and the confidence level
>
> Post the information and see what the group thinks.
>
> Is this a major pain? Sure it is. But is the only way to really know if there is an issue or not.
>
> This is a very simplified outline. For a good experiment, you would need to look at sources of error, repeats, blocking ( if you suspect certain quads are absent) and data recording errors. It is all doable but it is much easier to say " I played 4 hours and only got 1 quad, the machines must be cheating me"
>
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>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
Each product you mention has features the others don't.
The cost of each is rather small. Deciding on the best "one" is depriving you of what the other ones offer. Better to get all three plus WinPoker --- which has additional features
If you actually wish to master Deuces Wild , studying the Winners Guide for the game gives you additional info yet
Bob
Sent from my iPhone
On Apr 13, 2012, at 7:39 AM, "bbilly.club" <bbilly.club@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
"bbilly.club wrote (snip):
>
> I'm wondering if anyone's come to any definitive conclusions as to the
> best software trainer out there? Seems to me it comes down to Paymar,
> Dancer, and WolfVP. I'm aware that it will be a matter of taste to
> some degree. If it's any help, my goal is simply to maximize gain on
> the more "standard" games, i.e. I'm not particularly interested in
> triple/multi play, spin poker, or what I'd consider exotic variations.
> I particularly like Deuces, for whatever reason.
There will never be a "final answer" because none is best at everything.
Most serious advantage players have at least two of these programs
because each has features that compliment the others.
Optimum Video Poker, however, is the only one that actually trains
accurate play according to the strategy chart of your choice.
It's also the only one that's available for all three popular platforms
-- Windows, Mac OS X and Linux.
There are free demo downloads on my web site.
Dan
--
Dan Paymar, Author of "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Visit my web site at http://www.OptimumPlay.com
"Chance favors the prepared mind" ~ Louis Pasteur
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Hi guys:
I'm wondering if anyone's come to any definitive conclusions as to the best software trainer out there? Seems to me it comes down to Paymar, Dancer, and WolfVP. I'm aware that it will be a matter of taste to some degree. If it's any help, my goal is simply to maximize gain on the more "standard" games, i.e. I'm not particularly interested in triple/multi play, spin poker, or what I'd consider exotic variations. I particularly like Deuces, for whatever reason.
I'm headed to Nevada next month and I'd like to walk away without getting my keister kicked this time. I'm in no way new to the game, but then again, I've never really studied it, other than picking up strategy cards once upon a time.
Any thoughts/suggestions?
LVRJ: Michael Gaughan III plans to unify Rampart operations
http://www.lvrj.com/business/michael-gaughan-iii-plans-to-unify-resort-operations-147285975.html
or
http://tinyurl.com/6mwgfjc
<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6mwgfjc">
http://tinyurl.com/6mwgfjc</a>
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Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 000 2012
"The Taxing Part of Gambling"
http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1960
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http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1960</a>
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LVA Question of the Day - 13 APR 2012
Q: We visited Las Vegas the last week of March and we knew
about some of the halt of construction on the Strip. Could
you update us on the status of the progress of the casinos
that are partially built as to their names and locations
on the Strip? Are some going to be finished and opened,
especially the one with the large blue windows?
Read the answer here:
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm
<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm</a>
NOTE: vpFREE access to the Question of the Day link has
been approved by LVA and expires after the current day
for non-LVA members.
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Generally stop at 40 units, though you could bypass it on the first offer. Most of the machines also tell you when it is best to take offer, to left of payout screen if you look for it. Ive gotten the 1000 coin offer on 1st and also last offers. For double top dollar you might want to hold out for a bit more, because you have a chance for 2x and 4x offer, again you can check the advice.
The newer 6 coin machines with 2 games on them seem really bad, but there is also advice on when to take offer if you look at the help menu.
