Re: [vpFREE] Re: A Probability Question

 

Mickey, I can't give you an exact answer for 100-play, but you're correct in thinking that you'd have a much better chance of at least breaking even than you would with the same coin-in playing single line. 


With my program I can compare 1,000,000 deals of a single line game to 100,000 deals of 10-line, and even with that you can see the difference.   I did each case 10,000 times.

With single line, none of the 10,000 trials resulted in a breakeven or positive result.   In fact, only 65 out or 10,000 times did the player lose less than 40,000 coins.  (i.e., lose less than $10K for a 25c game)

With 10-line, there were 28 cases out of the 10,000 trials that ended with a positive result, and 346 other cases when the player lost less than 40,000 units.

Of course, the reverse is also true; namely, big losses are more likely with 10-line.   In a 25c game, the chance of losing more than $40K playing single line is 0.25%.    But with the same coin-in on 10-line, a $40K loss is 6 times more likely.

All these effects would be amplified again with 100-line.

--Dunbar

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mickeycrimm@...> wrote :

mikepeck5440, I have a follow up question.  Some people think that 10,000 deals on a hundred play would be the equivalent of playing 1,000,000 deals on a single line game.  But I don't think so as far as chances of success go. I would think that 10,000 deals would have a much better chance of being at breakeven or ahead than 1,000,000 deals. Could you tell me what your programs says about the chance of being at breakeven or ahead at 7/5 bonus poker for 10,000 deals?

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Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com
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[vpFREE] CZR for Las Vegas Locals

 

For those receiving a monthly LV locals magazine, it usually contains a couple of Wednesdays each month where you can get 2X/4X Reward Credits for VP/slots, max adjustment 100k RC.. in the fine print it says you have to activate at kiosk at each property played. Problem is it's never on kiosk at Caesars Palace. Management have told me it's not on kiosks at any property and you have to activate at slot club. ( I'm curious if this is the case at Rio). They say it's impossible to put a multiplier on the kiosk that's not open to everyone. I've done this about 6 times at CP and in all that time I've never met a boothling that knows what to do and only twice (including today) slot club supervisors that do. I always play then a couple weeks later I have to talk to a point adjustment supervisor at Rio when the extra RC don't show up. They usually don't believe me that I have registered at the slot club because there is no record in their system, and say next time I have to follow the rules, but they've always made the adjustment.

Anyway I went to CP today to go through the process again. They told me a week ago the decision was made that Rio would be the only LV property honoring locals promotions going forward. They said they were invoking the "management reserves all rights" and didn't have to honor promotion today. Supervisor was surprised to still find promotion in computer however and activated for me but said it would be last time. They said this promotion is a compliance nightmare for them because only Rio gets credit for all LV local play so that is why it's being discontinued. I asked about Cromwell and Bally's that are usually included as local's casinos for mystery free play days, but they reiterated only Rio. It should be interesting to see what March mailers look like.

Sent from my iPhone

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Posted by: Vegasvpplayer <vegasvpplayer@gmail.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: A Probability Question

 

mikepeck5440, I have a follow up question.  Some people think that 10,000 deals on a hundred play would be the equivalent of playing 1,000,000 deals on a single line game.  But I don't think so as far as chances of success go. I would think that 10,000 deals would have a much better chance of being at breakeven or ahead than 1,000,000 deals. Could you tell me what your programs says about the chance of being at breakeven or ahead at 7/5 bonus poker for 10,000 deals?

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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: A Probability Question

 

From What I remember from my math days, I think it would be closer to this. Take the expected value and multiply by pi. Then take the variance and square it. The expected loss will be close to a squared x b squared x c squared. Don't forget that this is only an approximation and could vary by 10 to the power of 6.

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Posted by: briffel@suddenlink.net
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