Re: [vpFREE] Re: A Probability Question

 

Mickey, I can't give you an exact answer for 100-play, but you're correct in thinking that you'd have a much better chance of at least breaking even than you would with the same coin-in playing single line. 


With my program I can compare 1,000,000 deals of a single line game to 100,000 deals of 10-line, and even with that you can see the difference.   I did each case 10,000 times.

With single line, none of the 10,000 trials resulted in a breakeven or positive result.   In fact, only 65 out or 10,000 times did the player lose less than 40,000 coins.  (i.e., lose less than $10K for a 25c game)

With 10-line, there were 28 cases out of the 10,000 trials that ended with a positive result, and 346 other cases when the player lost less than 40,000 units.

Of course, the reverse is also true; namely, big losses are more likely with 10-line.   In a 25c game, the chance of losing more than $40K playing single line is 0.25%.    But with the same coin-in on 10-line, a $40K loss is 6 times more likely.

All these effects would be amplified again with 100-line.

--Dunbar

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mickeycrimm@...> wrote :

mikepeck5440, I have a follow up question.  Some people think that 10,000 deals on a hundred play would be the equivalent of playing 1,000,000 deals on a single line game.  But I don't think so as far as chances of success go. I would think that 10,000 deals would have a much better chance of being at breakeven or ahead than 1,000,000 deals. Could you tell me what your programs says about the chance of being at breakeven or ahead at 7/5 bonus poker for 10,000 deals?

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Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com
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