[vpFREE] Re: Halloween - The Nightmare TR (XVP

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "westie2f" <westie2f@...> wrote:

>My 4.5 hour video poker (vp) session turned out to be beyond Grimm >even though I hit my 1st quad deuces of the trip.
>
>
>
Well, I enjoyed the story, Westie. You get 4.9 forks! Hey, nobody is perfect. And you used a word of which I know something of the origins. Genealogy is a very enjoyable hobby of mine. You would be surprised what one can find out about their ancestry just by using Ancestry.com and doing lots of googling on one's own surname.

It's funny how some words make their way into the english language. My surname ancestry goes back to the Grimms of Germany/Switzerland, and the Palatine migration to the American Colonies in the 18th century. The Palatinate is a region along the upper Rhine River in the very south of Germany.

Merriam-Webster Dictionary:

grim:

1. fierce in disposition or action; SAVAGE
2. stern or forbidding in action or appearance
3. ghastly; repellent; sinister in character
4. UNFLINCHING; UNYIELDING

The Grimms trace their ancestry back to a norse raider named "Grym" who settled in Normandy in the 10th century. It looks like the dictionary definition of grim fits the norse raider pretty good.

P.S. Westie, you made me hungry so I'm having microwave of hot dog, mustard sauce and fresh jalapeno, with coke of cola.

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Southpoint

 

I've always been happy with host Kelly Lumpford. Friendly, efficient, and fair.

Dave

>
>
> ________________________________
> From: lhbarber <kona623@...>
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 12:36 AM
> Subject: [vpFREE] Southpoint
>
>
>  
> I have never been to the Southpoint, does anyone have a favorite host(s) ? I plan on staying there. Are there sign up bonuses or any specials I should know about ? How are the rooms ? I usually stay at the M or Red Rock and realize it is a step down with considerably better games than the M. Thanks for any help.

>

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

 

No question things have thinned out in AC in the last 4 mo. Failing all else, Borgata offers up 9/6 JB in $.25+, which with cb/bonus is at least a b/e offering.

There are other "positive" offerings at $.25+ (factoring cb/bonuses) in AC, but you'll have to keep your ear to the ground to learn of those.

- H.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, marccarfi@... wrote:
>
>
> >.Again, I'll speculate that the real driving force here is an inadequate psychological bankroll for 5-coin play ... And that until you confront that challenge you rob yourself of some of the real satisfacton of "advantage play".
>
> Harry,You're right about that.I hated making trip after trip to AC and losing.
>
> For me advantage play means VP with a positive EV which you won't find in AC.And if you want to include cash back and comps,It's getting harder since casinos here are constantly cutting back on what they're giving out.
>
> Marc
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: vp_wiz <harry.porter@...>
> To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 6:47 am
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, marccarfi@ wrote:
> >
> > Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong .
>
> Marc,
>
> Certainly you're among the more schizophrenic players I've encountered ...
>
> You demonstrate that you not only grasp the underlying math, but fully accept it. Yet, rather than trust the math, like an intrepid surfer you seek out a wave of good hands that will make you a winner.
>
> But i get that this is what works for you (so far), and there's little that's going sway you into abandoning this play style.
>
> Again, I'll speculate that the real driving force here is an inadequate psychological bankroll for 5-coin play ... And that until you confront that challenge you rob yourself of some of the real satisfacton of "advantage play".
>
> Most 5-coin players accept that vp is largely a losing game over the medium haul until they pull ahead with a 800:1 payout RF. You continually put yourself at risk that when you hit, it'll be a 250:1 (or other shortcoin) payoff. Bottom line, this risk, inherent in your play, is what will make your game a losing one in the not so long run.
>
> - H.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

 

No question things have thinned out in AC in the last 4 mo. Failing all else, Borgata offers up 9/6 JB in $.25+, which with cb/bonus is at least a b/e offering.

There are other "positive" offerings at $.25+ (factoring cb/bonuses) in AC, but you'll have to keep your ear to the ground to learn of those.

- H.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, marccarfi@... wrote:
>
>
> >.Again, I'll speculate that the real driving force here is an inadequate psychological bankroll for 5-coin play ... And that until you confront that challenge you rob yourself of some of the real satisfacton of "advantage play".
>
> Harry,You're right about that.I hated making trip after trip to AC and losing.
>
> For me advantage play means VP with a positive EV which you won't find in AC.And if you want to include cash back and comps,It's getting harder since casinos here are constantly cutting back on what they're giving out.
>
> Marc
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: vp_wiz <harry.porter@...>
> To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 6:47 am
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, marccarfi@ wrote:
> >
> > Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong .
>
> Marc,
>
> Certainly you're among the more schizophrenic players I've encountered ...
>
> You demonstrate that you not only grasp the underlying math, but fully accept it. Yet, rather than trust the math, like an intrepid surfer you seek out a wave of good hands that will make you a winner.
>
> But i get that this is what works for you (so far), and there's little that's going sway you into abandoning this play style.
>
> Again, I'll speculate that the real driving force here is an inadequate psychological bankroll for 5-coin play ... And that until you confront that challenge you rob yourself of some of the real satisfacton of "advantage play".
>
> Most 5-coin players accept that vp is largely a losing game over the medium haul until they pull ahead with a 800:1 payout RF. You continually put yourself at risk that when you hit, it'll be a 250:1 (or other shortcoin) payoff. Bottom line, this risk, inherent in your play, is what will make your game a losing one in the not so long run.
>
> - H.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: which video poker

 

"The7thWarrior" wrote:
> Mathematically, the more lines you play the higher the variance.
> Mostly due to the fact that your result is based on the dealt hand.
Actually, just the opposite is true. You seem to be equating variance
with bankroll fluctuations. They are not the same. Bankroll fluctuations
are measured in dollars, while variance, like expected value, is a
unitless number. Bankroll fluctuations are a result of the variance
multiplied by the bet size.

Although betting more line will increase your bankroll fluctuations
simply because you're making bigger bets, the multiple draws to the same
dealt hand means that the average outcome will tend to be closer to the
expected value of the play; thus lower variance.

This is more intuitive if we compare situations with the total bet size.
For example, the variance (and the bankroll fluctuations) will be
smaller on a 10-play $1 machine than for the same payoff table on a
single line $10 machine.

--
Dan Paymar, Developer of Optimum Video Poker
Analyzer/Trainer for Windows, Mac, Linux
Web site atwww.OptimumPlay.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> Unless he meant it as a form of "free" (in terms of expected value)
> recreation, I don't know why Mickey recommended that. The only other
> thing I can think of is to adjust the volume of one's play due to
> updated bankroll considerations.
>
My real idea about the single line machine I described where you could bet from 5 to 25 coins is something like this:

Say you found an advantage play in some casino. The play is available at quarters, 50 cents, and dollars. And at the quarter level the required bankroll is $5,000....which is exactly what you have. Normally, in order to move up to the 50 cent level you would have to wait for your bankroll to double. But on the machine like I described you could move up to a $1.50 bet at $6,000, $1.75 at $7,000, etc., and hopefully, make it all the way up to the $6.25 bet before they pull the play on you.

On a humorous note, Montana video poker is bass akwards. You got nickel and quarter denoms. But the max bet on either denom is $2 (state law), so the only difference is the credits on winning hands rack up faster on quarters. Betting anywhere from one nickel to 20 nickels, or 1 quarter to 4 quarters, you get 800 for 1 on the royal. So betting $1 the royal pays $800, which is the max jackpot by state law. If you bet anything higher than $1, then $800 is all you're going to get for the royal. If you bet $1.25 the royal pays $800. If you bet $1.50 the royal pays $800. If you bet $2 the royal pays $800. So in effect, the people who bet $2 per hand are turning a 97% game into a 96% game. But I still see people doing it all the time.

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

 


>>How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?
>
>If you've experienced 2 or more wins,then you know you're in the middle of a streak(of unknown duration and could possibly end on the next bet)
maybe I should have added

I think I'm getting a "Tense-ion" Headache so I'm going to go take a whole bottle of 'Tylenold" and hope that I don't get a pain in my "Abdoment",sleep for 24hrs,get up fully vested,(By the way my Mother-in-Law really talks this way...Hope she doesn't see this post...She won't,VP to her means Joe Bidon) and trek down to the nearest Community college and take a course in whatever language I'm trying to speak.

P.S.Hey Tom,I think you cured me.I can now handle any losing streak that 6/5 Jacks or Better could possibly throw at me!

In Jest,

Marc

-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 4:25 pm
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

Marc wrote:

>>What information does a streak give you?
>
>When you're in a streak,You only know how it's been going on for,not how long it will go on in the future

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak? ... Wait.
That's what johnnyzee asked ...

>>How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?
>
>If you've experienced 2 or more wins,then you know you're in the middle of a streak

There you go again, Marc. The "middle" implies a prediction that it
will continue. You have no reason to believe that 2 or more wins
didn't constitute the entire winning streak. It might have just
ended. As is consistent with your statements that there's no way to
predict, which is contradicted by your use of such words and phrases
as "middle" and "in," you can only recognize streaks in retrospect.
Only after a winning streak of, say, 7 hands is over can you say how
long it was. After, say, the 5th win, you have no way of knowing that
it will continue with 2 more wins. At that point, for all you know,
it will turn out to have been a streak of 5 wins. You persistently
confuse tenses. But you're not alone. I catch myself doing it, too.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

 

Rick wrote:

>It isn't always about EV.  Some may be willing to trade a little expected value to get less variance; that's usually a bit more subjective of a decision.  In this case, the implied trade-off is 0.22% less EV for a big drop in variance.    People don't put all their money in the stock market even if it has greater expected value than T-bills, cds, savings, or checking accounts.
>
>Certainly Marc could get an
>even bigger drop in variance by playing even a higher percentage of hands at 1-coin,
>or a lower dropoff in EV by using some other trigger, so it is not clear that he has consciously made an optimal informed EV-Variance tradeoff; but his decision may also not have been as horrific as has been intimated.

Almost everyone sacrifices expected value in order to reduce
fluctuation. I assume insurance has negative expected value, but if
it sufficiently reduces the chance of a catastrophic loss, it can be
worth it. With a given bankroll, it might be better to play 1 coin
instead of 5. But that's a separate issue from trying to predict the
duration of streaks, as is the possibility that playing 0 coins is
better than either 1 or 5.

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] which video poker

 

With multi-play, the per-coin-squared variance increases as the number of hands increases because the covariance between each pair of hands increases the variance.  But when comparing equal bet sizes (like single-line at $5, 5-play at $1, 10-play at $.50, 20-play at $0.25), the per-dollar-squared variance decreases as the number of hands goes up (due to the dollar variance needing to be multiplied by the square of the denomination).

So if you have the same total bet size (using 5 coins per line with the 4 examples above yields a $25 bet for each one), the smaller variance in dollars squared occurs when there are more lines and a lower denomination.

________________________________
From: Luke Fuller <kungalooosh@gmail.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 5:40 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] which video poker

 
On Tue, Nov 8, 2011 at 4:34 PM, savorvpx <savorvpx@yahoo.com> wrote:

> I also like to play multiline machines, mainly because in general the more
> lines you play, the lower the variance.

On Wed, Nov 9, 2011 at 10:04 AM, the7thwarrior <Judy@realtor.com> wrote:

> Mathematically, the more lines you play the higher the variance.

So, which is it?

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] which video poker

 

On Wed, Nov 9, 2011 at 2:40 PM, Luke Fuller <kungalooosh@gmail.com> wrote:
>> I also like to play multiline machines, mainly because in general the
>> more lines you play, the lower the variance.

[...]

>> Mathematically, the more lines you play the higher the variance.
>
> So, which is it?

Either one, depending how you look at it.

5x$1 has more variance than single-line $1. But it has less variance
compared to single-line $5.

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

 

If you observe Marc's play in retrospect only, you will find (using a negative game like 9/6 Jacks or Better as an example) that he lost 4 x (n - 1) coins fewer by playing his strategy on each streak of n losses.  You will also find that he gained 80% fewer coins on the first win only, except once per 51,481 hands of 1-coin play (or once per 94,361 hands overall) when he had that 1-coin royal and won considerably less than he would have with 5-coin play.

With the switching strategy, his EV declines from the target 99.54% to 99.32%, presuming that he plays both 5-coin and 1-coin strategies perfectly, but his variance drops from 487.87 coins squared (25 x  19.51468 per single coin that is given in WinPoker) to 224.39 coins squared.  The portion of the variances that is downside variance (attributed to hands that lose coins) drops from 13.51 coins squared to 6.44 coins squared.

His net expected losses are reduced from 0.0228 coins per hand with normal 5-coin play to 0.0192 coins per hand with his mixed play.  Of course, the difference in loss and the fact that it is lower is due to the fact that he is betting on average 2.8177 coins per play rather than 5.  And I presume with the continual switching bet sizes that he plays slower so his average losses per hour with the switching strategy are probably lower still.

Of course, there is nothing magic about switching when he does.  He would experience these same numbers if he played the first 54.56% of his session at 1 coin with the remaining 45.44% at 5 coins except that he might play quicker and possibly make fewer hold mistakes because of the difference in the two playing strategies.  Any similar trigger would produce similar results (like play 1 coin when the minute hand of the clock is from 0 to 32 and play 5 coins when it is from 33 to 59, if he played complete hours for each session).

So, it is more than luck that he would be experiencing lower loss levels in his losing sessions with this type of play.  His losses in losing sessions are EXPECTED to be lower  The above analysis is based on averages so sessions with longer losing streaks would likely have still lower loss results in comparison to 5-coin play.  Certainly he would expect a lower expected net result in gain/loss over the lifetime of his play, but his ride should be more stable.

I would guess that there might be differences in probability of winning during a 4-hour session, but I have not analyzed that enough to comment meaningfully.

If he wants to continue with this betting strategy, it would be better if he could move up and down in denomination, always betting 5 coins so he doesn't miss out on the full-coin royals, but depending upon where he is, he may not be able to find the same pay schedule at the lower denomination.

It isn't always about EV.  Some may be willing to trade a little expected value to get less variance; that's usually a bit more subjective of a decision.  In this case, the implied trade-off is 0.22% less EV for a big drop in variance.    People don't put all their money in the stock market even if it has greater expected value than T-bills, cds, savings, or checking accounts.

Certainly Marc could get an
even bigger drop in variance by playing even a higher percentage of hands at 1-coin,
or a lower dropoff in EV by using some other trigger, so it is not clear that he has consciously made an optimal informed EV-Variance tradeoff; but his decision may also not have been as horrific as has been intimated.

________________________________

 

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

.

__,_._,___
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)