The Casino I play VP at used to have one FPJoB machine in the nonsmoking section.
It was really cool because it paid the same ratio Royal on any number of coins, 1-5
I always played it at 1 coin because of that, and because I was just a beginner and
trying to take my time getting my feet wet.
The problem was that other people would be at the machine when I went to play.
There was an 'I Dream of Jeannie' machine right next to the Job Machine, so I would
play that when waiting so I could pounce on the VP machine when it was vacated.
I noticed that I ran through my planned Jeannie bankroll $20, roughly twice as
fast as it took for the other player to finish, so I decided to cut my play in 1/2
So I did a 1. 2, 3, 4, 5 shuffle, without regard to the 5 coin jackpot.
I found my money did last twice as long, since I was betting 1/2 on average, of course.
And I had just as much fun with Jeannie calling me 'Master'.
Often it's not about the math or the extra fraction of a percentage.
Many VP players will take a tiny bit lower EV when they get a juicy looking
longshot, I think Rob Singer says take the shot and so do some others.
And some, like Mister Dancer are religious about the percentages.
I've also bet into 'hot streaks' and walked out on losing streaks.
Sometimes common sense, fun or intuition 'trumps' the math if it's close.
>________________________________
>From: "marccarfi@aol.com" <marccarfi@aol.com>
>To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
>Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 12:01 PM
>Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins
>
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>>Marc, now I'm confused. If each hand has the same probability of occurrence, why bet 5 after a win? There is no advantage to doing so. If the probability of a winning hand is somehow greater after your one coin 'streak starter win', then the machines aren't random.
>
>Betting 5 coin after a win is just the way I've chosen to play the 1-5 coin shuffle.I needed some sort of trigger to to switch between 1 & 5.Choosing to do it after win seemed logical to me because any streak(if it's going to happen) must start with one.I didn't choose betting 5 after a loss for example because I don't know how many losses might occur before I get the first win and I'd be betting 5 on however many losses occur before the first win.Again one win does not predict a streak but any win streak must start with one win.
>
>>Maybe we need some definitions:
>
>>What is a streak?
>
>In the context of this discussion: Consecutive wins or consecutive losses of whatever length.
>
>>What starts a streak and what ends a streak?
>
>A winning streak must always start with a win(now past) and end with a loss.And visa versa.
>
>>What information does a streak give you?
>
>When you're in a streak,You only know how it's been going on for,not how long it will go on in the future
>
>>How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?
>
>If you've experienced 2 or more wins,then you know you're in the middle of a streak,but you don't know if it's going to continue end with a loss on the next bet.
>
>Marc
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: johnnyzee48127 <greeklandjohnny@aol.com>
>To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
>Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 12:09 pm
>Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins
>
>johhnyzee wrote....
>> >l'll take Tom's response one step further. Marc, it sounds like you are saying the probability of a winning hand when the last 4 hands have been winners is greater than the probability of a winning hand immediately after a losing hand. I completely disagree with that notion.
>
>Marc wrote .......
>> Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong and try again.
>>
>>
>
>Marc, now I'm confused. If each hand has the same probability of occurrence, why bet 5 after a win? There is no advantage to doing so. If the probability of a winning hand is somehow greater after your one coin 'streak starter win', then the machines aren't random.
>
>Maybe we need some definitions:
>
>What is a streak?
>
>What starts a streak and what ends a streak?
>
>What information does a streak give you?
>
>How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?
>
>Maybe then we will make a little headway in this discussion. Right now, it sounds like you are saying streaks exist, betting during a streak is profitable but you don't know when a streak occurs and the probability of any hand during a streak is the same as any other hand. These are mutually exclusive statements.
>
>Marc, if betting 1 coin til you win and then betting 5 coins on a win makes you happy, that's great. There is no advantage to doing so besides betting less money and you can accomplish that by other means. I believe knowledge is power so if you understand your bet pattern and understand that it does not give you any advantage and want to do so anyway, that is certainly your choice. I just want to make sure it is an informed choice.
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