[vpFREE] Promotions - good or bad

 

There has been some discussion on this, with people on both sides. Actually you might be surprised that I can see a danger in promotions. And I have written about that in the current blog entry. http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=2804

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Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Here's a question for you math inclined folks......

 

Just yesterday I was trying to reach the 2500 points. I got to 2297. I was down approx $200 when I reached the 1000 point level I lost another $400 getting to 2173. It cost me $300 to get that last 124 points and I quit. First I was exhausted and mentally did not want to continue and every machine I played at the end was just taking my money, was getting very little play. It is hard to get that many points in one day playing quarter and dollar vp. I had a similar experience trying for DIAD at Harvey's last Sept. Needed 3000 points, got to 2,800 and was so tired I was shaky. At the end I was getting no play, I quit then too. I am not usually a quitter but I do not have unlimited funds to give to them and I do think my age plays a role in how tired I get. I am very disappointed in missing it by so little 2 times.
Sent from my iPad

On Apr 26, 2013, at 6:37 PM, "leetcrowell2" <lee.crowell@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

>
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Here's a question for you math inclined folks......

 

The $200 free play makes the 99% play 100% as long as you limit your action to $20K. A decent offer from Harrahs.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "leetcrowell2" <lee.crowell@...> wrote:
>
> Thanks NotI- that's what I was looking for- so, if I hit a small 4oak every $100, it would take about $1,100 to get the 1,000 points. But worst case should be $1,900. Less than $1,100 if I hit the better 4oaks. I know, that is not true worst case, but close enough for what I am thinking.
>
> I've got $200 in free play- I will not run through my entire $1,200 bankroll on Monday to reach the 1,000 point level, but if it is in reach, I might stretch. My goal is to have $400 or $500 left for Tuesday, so I can go visit Aquarius for the 10/7 DB. You confirmed what I thought- I'll need to get lucky to reach the 1,000 points in $700 to $800 plus the FP. I'm willing to risk a little more on Monday because I find benefit in TR Diamond level, plus the bonus points.
>
> Thanks to everyone for the info- Lee.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
> >
> > If you don't get a quad or better you're leaking about 18%, so $100 would go about $556 coin in or 445 hands. The quad cycle is about 423, so you won't get a quad about a third of the time. If you get a baby quad for $62.50, that would take you another $347 coin in.
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Here's a question for you math inclined folks......

 



You should play at least 1000 hands on WinPoker or some other software that will keep track of your errors, so that you have some kind of idea of what mistakes are costing you per hour. You can play VP on these programs very quickly so getting the data won't take much time.

If you are making errors that cost an extra 2% of the amt you bet ($12.50 every 500 hands), which would be huge, your $600 bankroll results would look like this:

Your chance of busting out before 4000 hands rises from 7% (no errors) to 15% (with errors)

Your chance of busting out before 8000 hands rises from 30% (no errors) to 48% (with errors).

You can see the importance of being competent before you start live play. That said, $12.50 an hour is a LOT of error. For example, even a big mistake like accidentally tossing one of your two-pair on a draw "only" costs $1.18.

--Dunbar

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "leetcrowell2" <lee.crowell@...> wrote:
>
> Interesting- of course this assumes I'm reasonably proficient- thank you all for not pointing out that obvious issue in this analysis- So if I'm 95% accurate with my play, 66.5% of the time I can get to 1,000 points (8,000 hand at $1.25 per hand) on $600-right? Even if I'm only 17% of the way through a royal cycle?
>
> I have trouble with wrapping my pea brain around the risk of ruin idea, so this helps for my scenario.
>
> Thanks again, Lee.
>
> > If you start with $600:
> > You'll be broke just 7% of the time before you have played 4000 hands.
> > You'll be broke 30% of the time before you have played 8000 hands.
> >
> > --Dunbar
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Here's a question for you math inclined folks......

 

If I remember correctly, Bob Dancer in his last radio show said something like you need to be 99%+ on a simulator before you even consider playing vp for real money in a casino. At 95% Harrah's probably has you dominated, meaning you're going to be paying them, fine, as long as you don't mind being the sucker, I mean "valuable customer". You'd be better off just playing the freeplay by itself and see if you can get lucky and get the points you're hoping for. If you bust out, try to hustle a host for some more freeplay, or at least a food or spa comp or something. Or try to exchange for chips and play a table game. Or try to sell your freeplay to someone else or sell some of your action to someone, like they put up $100 and in exchange get $200 if a royal hits.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "leetcrowell2" <lee.crowell@...> wrote:
>
> Interesting- of course this assumes I'm reasonably proficient- thank you all for not pointing out that obvious issue in this analysis- So if I'm 95% accurate with my play, 66.5% of the time I can get to 1,000 points (8,000 hand at $1.25 per hand) on $600-right? Even if I'm only 17% of the way through a royal cycle?
>
> I have trouble with wrapping my pea brain around the risk of ruin idea, so this helps for my scenario.
>
> Thanks again, Lee.
>
> > If you start with $600:
> > You'll be broke just 7% of the time before you have played 4000 hands.
> > You'll be broke 30% of the time before you have played 8000 hands.
> >
> > --Dunbar
>

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[vpFREE] Re: individual process and promotions - MOVED to FREEvpFREE

 

Two follow up responses in this thread that were sent
to vpFREE by "RWS" have been posted on FREEvpFREE.

Please use FREEvpFREE for any further discussion in
this thread.

vpFREE Administrator

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[vpFREE] Re: Here's a question for you math inclined folks......

 

Interesting- of course this assumes I'm reasonably proficient- thank you all for not pointing out that obvious issue in this analysis- So if I'm 95% accurate with my play, 66.5% of the time I can get to 1,000 points (8,000 hand at $1.25 per hand) on $600-right? Even if I'm only 17% of the way through a royal cycle?

I have trouble with wrapping my pea brain around the risk of ruin idea, so this helps for my scenario.

Thanks again, Lee.

> If you start with $600:
> You'll be broke just 7% of the time before you have played 4000 hands.
> You'll be broke 30% of the time before you have played 8000 hands.
>
> --Dunbar

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