[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

 

The post below identifies exactly the factors at play in what I deem my "Independence Day" turning point in my play: Grasping the reality of "N0", I became aware of how I could best structure my play so that, over the course of a year, luck was relegated to being a nominal factor in determining whether I had a winning year or not.

I became aware that sustained play with an appreciable edge and moderate variance, engaged in with considerable frequency, can indeed pretty much assure very strong likelihood of a profitable year. I haven't had to look back with regret since.

The very casual player must be resigned to luck largely ruling their play year to year. But for a determined player with steady access to strong plays, the opportunity is there to reap the rewards of advantage play with reliable consistency.


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <cy4873@...> wrote :

Skill and discipline are only important if you have an edge and you can play long enough to get to the long run. See FAQ on N0. In real life skill and discipline are often small factors compared to random events/luck.




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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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[vpFREE] Atlantis Digression (Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015)

 

mjperry -- I'll wait until you enjoy a modest run of Atlantis luck, and are subsequently restricted to a casino rate offer calendar, to see what you really think of the property ;)


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mjperr82@...> wrote :

Meanwhile , I be enjoying the free rooms , comped food, ( Atlantis has fantastic food but buffet is a b ) fine Cav and Merlot, and $100 in free play just for showing up all while playing in one of the best VP casinos in the world
KOOL !















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Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

 

>skill and discipline are often small factors compared to random events/luck.

I don't see the point of saying this. No one has any control over
luck, so, no matter how much of a factor it plays in results, it can't
be relevant.

nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com wrote:

>Bob wrote: "When you are good, sometimes you are over-royaled and sometimes you are under-royaled, but these things eventually average out and when they do, you're going to be ahead of the game."

>That's the Monte Carlo fallacy. As long as there's no regression to the mean, things don't "average out". Just because you had a bad run, you can't expect to get a good run to compensate

"Average out" could mean that there is a tendency towards the
compensation that you refer to or it could mean that in percentage
terms, results tend to converge to expected value. I think Bob meant
the latter. I don't think he believes in the "due theory."

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

 

rather be good, luck can take care of itself

example :2 weekends ago played 3 days of NSUD at the Reno Atlantis dollar level , about 20hrs machine time , lost $425.00 .


I NEVER got the 4 ducks or a royal and only 2 wild royals.


Per my notes ( i keep notes on the difficult hands to play, check my play to the correct play per TomSki chart)
it looks like i played at a 99.70% level . That kept the losses close to the minimum


Getting 1 hand of 4 ducks would be $575.00 profit, 3 more wild royals would have been a $50.00 loss, both would have been within the norm ,


Bad luck ? not to me, plan on playing some more NSUD in the future lol


Meanwhile , I be enjoying the free rooms , comped food, ( Atlantis has fantastic food but buffet is a b ) fine Cav and Merlot, and $100 in free play just for showing up all while playing in one of the best VP casinos in the world
KOOL !


M J


PS : thanks to 5x times points on Sun. i earned $276 in food comps on Sun alone.
.


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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 2 JUL 2015

 

Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 2 JUL 2015

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

 

Can't argue with that.

Regards
A.P.

From: mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, July 02, 2015 10:30 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

The bigger the edge the more the luck comes out of ones thinking. When I was sweeping out quarter Flush Attacks it was a very reliable $4000 to $6000 a month with the average being about $5000 a month if you could get in about 100,000 hands per month. I was working with about a 4% edge, plus cachback and comp. The difference is you are not dependent on the Royal to make a profit. Using rounded numbers I had about a 1.5% edge just up through the 4 Aces which was on about a 4400 game cycle. The Royal and the Straight Flush represented about 2.5% of the payback. I rarely had a losing week.

Luck runs good and bad. I'd rather get lucky holding the edge than not holding the edge....and I'd rather get unlucky holding the edge than not holding the edge.

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Posted by: "Albert Pearson" <ehpee@rogers.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

 

The bigger the edge the more the luck comes out of ones thinking. When I was sweeping out quarter Flush Attacks it was a very reliable $4000 to $6000 a month with the average being about $5000 a month if you could get in about 100,000 hands per month. I was working with about a 4% edge, plus cachback and comp. The difference is you are not dependent on the Royal to make a profit. Using rounded numbers I had about a 1.5% edge just up through the 4 Aces which was on about a 4400 game cycle. The Royal and the Straight Flush represented about 2.5% of the payback. I rarely had a losing week.

Luck runs good and bad. I'd rather get lucky holding the edge than not holding the edge....and I'd rather get unlucky holding the edge than not holding the edge.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

 

I didn't say it was likely that you'd be a long term loser. I only said that there was a real chance of being a long term loser.
Go and run 100,000 simulations of 3 or 4 million hands and see if you are a winner on every last one of them. If you can do that then I will admit that I am wrong.

Regards
A.P.

From: mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, July 02, 2015 6:48 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

That's baloney. If you play "good", and the game is "good", and you don't mistakenly equate the word "year" with "long term", then you will win. If you chose a sample of 3-4 million hands, all at the same denomination to make it a fair sample, and you stick to a game that does not have a ridiculously high variance, and you have a healthy EV like 1% or more, it is incorrect that you have a "very real chance of being a long term loser playing video poker". And there's all kinds of software that will do the figuring for you.

Unless, of course, God just doesn't like you.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <ehpee@...> wrote :

Absolutely correct. I don't care how good you are, and how good the game is. There is still a very real chance that you will be a long term loser playing video poker.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

 

That's baloney. If you play "good", and the game is "good", and you don't mistakenly equate the word "year" with "long term", then you will win. If you chose a sample of 3-4 million hands, all at the same denomination to make it a fair sample, and you stick to a game that does not have a ridiculously high variance, and you have a healthy EV like 1% or more, it is incorrect that you have a "very real chance of being a long term loser playing video poker". And there's all kinds of software that will do the figuring for you.

Unless, of course, God just doesn't like you.



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <ehpee@...> wrote :

Absolutely correct. I don't care how good you are, and how good the game is. There is still a very real chance that you will be a long term loser playing video poker.



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