[vpFREE] Re: What's A Tip and What's A Bribe???

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
>
> Thanks for watching my back, glblnmm. I'd hope it had been evident
> from past posts that I select my words with great deliberation and
care.
>
> Re tralfam**, should we meet in a dark alley (as you put forth), feel
> free to ask for a light. I'm always anxious to help.
>
> - H.
>
Well, I'm sure you won't admit it, but the "dictionary definition"
(which often conflicts with common usage, or the way the speaker meant
to use the term) pretty much proves my point. All that I said was that
my point of view on the subject was pretty much unique. I did NOT say
what anyone ELSE should do, which is a necessary component of
both "righteousness" AND "self-righteousness". The dictionary
definition also refers to a "narrow" point of view. Well, gee, I guess
I have a "narrow" point of view about soliciting aomeone to commit
fraud. But I freely admit that my point of view is mine own alone, as
it would also be if my opinion were that casino hosts should be killed
and eaten.

The "care" you purport to have used in word selection was "care" to
select a term that was insulting, as opposed to being accurate. I feel
the way I feel. I have my own opinions, and my own ethical standards.
By reacting to those standards with a snotty comment, you merely
underscore my contention that most people don't feel the way I do.
What perplexes me is why you feel compelled to comment on it. You're
entitled to your opinion, and I to mine. But I'm not about to call you
an unprincipled thief (for example), because you feel that it's OK to
bribe a casino host. As I said, everyone has his own ethical standards.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Here we go again?

For non-math people who are still reading this thread, here is my
explanation. You will get to the long term faster by playing multi-line so
you won't need quite as large a lifetime bankroll as for the same coin-in on
a single line, but you will definitely go deeper into your SESSIONS
bankroll.
________________
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The much-expanded new edition of my tax book,
including a new chapter on poker, is now available
to order at my Web site, http://queenofcomps.com/.

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[vpFREE] Re: Here we go again?

The topic of variance as it applies to multiline play has been rather
comprehensively covered in this thread at this point. Still, I'd like
to offer a "common sense" perspective from which to grasp the concept,
just to make it a little more concrete.

------

Think of variance as a measure of play streakiness, i.e. the extremes
to which the peaks and valleys of play might run. Consider play of
$.25 Jacks in two guises, single line play and 4-play. Look at the
expected streakiness of play, one vs. the other.

For any given total $ in total wagers, you have 4x more single line
plays than multiline plays. Each individual single line play is
independent of the next. That independence distributes results fairly
widely and swings tend to be moderate. On the other hand, in 4 play,
each set of 4 individual hands that are completed are all related by a
common deal. If that deal should be particularly strong, then the
resulting completed hands tend to be high paying. Conversely, if the
deal is quite weak, the completed hands will likely be weak as well.

The consequence of 4-play is that return is concentrated in a
considerably fewer number of deals and, due to the relationship
between completed hands from those deal and the initial deals, there's
a much stronger potential for overall play to run negatively or
positively. Simply put, there's a smaller opportunity for results to
even out over the course of play vs. single line play with 4 times the
deals.

This naturally translates to a higher variance for 4-play vs. single
play at the same denomination. Statistically, covariance is the
measure of the variance that is directly related to the added
dimension of multiple hands being derived from a common deal in
multiplay and is additive to single line variance in determining
overall multiplay variance.

-------

There's another dimension when it comes to considering multiplay
variance -- the relative variance when comparing single line play and
multiline play where the wager per play is a constant. An example is
$1 single line play and $.25 4-play (total wager $5 in each case).

In this instance, the $5 wager in single play yields a single outcome
that determines the payout from the play. In $5 4-play wager has an
outcome that is spread over 4 separate drawn hands. The consequence
is that the 4-play wager has a smaller variance than single play; the
risk is dispersed.

------

Depending upon the context in which multiplay variance is considered,
it may be higher or lower than single line play (as was summarized
elsewhere in this thread).

- Harry

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[vpFREE] Fiesta Players Club

I've heard that the Fiestas slot club is no longer going to merge
with the Stations club. Rather Fiestas will merge with the Wild
Card currently used at their smaller casinos like Barley's and
Wild Wild West.

Wild Card Link:

http://tinyurl.com/29tkv8

<a href="http://tinyurl.com/29tkv8">
http://tinyurl.com/29tkv8</a>

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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's REEL DEALS - 15 JAN 2008

http://members.cox.net/vpfree/KR.htm

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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's ON THE CHEAP - 15 JAN 2008

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[vpFREE] Re: What's A Tip and What's A Bribe???

Thanks for watching my back, glblnmm. I'd hope it had been evident
from past posts that I select my words with great deliberation and care.

Re tralfam**, should we meet in a dark alley (as you put forth), feel
free to ask for a light. I'm always anxious to help.

- H.

----------------------------------------------------------

Prior discussion:

tralfamidorgooglycrackers wrote:
> > > > I personally have problems with inducing an employee to defraud
> > > > his or her employer, but I seem to be the only person on the
> > > > planet who feels any scruples in that regard.

Harry replied:
> > > This smacks of at at least a tad of self-righteousness, don't you
> > > think?

tralfam** responded:
> > Only if you don't have access to a dictionary, or to a functioning
> > cerebrum.
> >
> > "Righteousness" refers to having an opinion about the proper
> > conduct of OTHERS. Therefore, "self-righteousness", if it can even
> > be considered a word, would logically refer to having an opinion
> > about one's OWN proper conduct.
> >
> > I shudder to think that you think that having such an opinion is
> > blameworthy, and hope I never meet you in a dark alley :)

glblnmm comeback:
> Self-righteous is a perfectly good word. This just in from
> Merriam-Webster: convinced of one's own righteousness especially in
> contrast with the actions and beliefs of others *:* narrow-mindedly
> moralistic

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[vpFREE] Re: Here we go again?

It's a bit simpler than that. For the moment just ignore the covariance-- it just
complicates the main issue.

Indeed if the covariance was zero (that is we are ignoring it), the variance would decrease
like 1/N [and the standard deviation 1/sqrt(N) ] where N is the number of hands played
in total. Total means total and means we can understand the fundamentals of the concept
not worrying about the difference between deals and draw..

So, if V is the variance for 1 hand, we would have the variance for N hands = V/N . Take
V = 49. and N = 100. Variance for 100 hands would be 0.49 = 49/100, and standard
deviation would be 0.7 = 7/10 = sqrt(49/100) . This so called "1 over square root of N"
behavior for the standard deviation is the hallmark of all uncorrelated random events. It's
so famous many people confuse it for the central limit theorem.

Now, we know Video Poker Deals are uncorrelated random events. But what about the
draws?

Well, The draws are correlated-- which means the covariance is not 0. Now, there's this
funny law out there that says if the random event is correlated its variance goes down
slower than 1/N. The more the events (the draws) are correlated-- the slower the
variance goes down. The less correlated they are, the faster the variance decrease-- but
never faster than 1/N. Nice and simple (well we ignored a couple of fine points)

So, due the fact the draws are correlated, we know that the variance of multi play goes
down slower than 1/N -- but it goes down. How much slower (on average)? For that you
need the covariance. But you don't need the covariance to understand that the variance
goes down with increased number of hands.

Play a game: Grab some dice (you can do this with 1 die, but its a pain). Roll I die over
and over again recording the results. Compute the mean and variance of those results.

Now, take a few dice and roll them as a group the same number of time you did for the
single die. Record the average results for each "roll" (the sum of all the dice divided by the
number of dice). Now compute the mean and variance of this set of number. Viola-- you
should have proven the 1/N behavior (or close to it) , where N is the number of dice.

Notice that I said average the results. That's because I wanted the answer to come out
correctly-- in the same units as the 1-die question so I could compare things. If I added
the results from the individual die-- perhaps I would find something different for the
overall variance (but I wouldn't be comparing the same thing). This situation is akin to the
issue raised by others about normalizing the vp results for a constant bet amount -- or
not. I leave working out this case to the interested reader (if there are any)

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "cmayhem2001" <chandler_re@...> wrote:

>
> You need to understand the concept of covariance. Because so many
> hands share the same deal and only the draw is separate, it
> increases total variance vs a game where every deal and draw is a
> separate event. A single play FPJB game has a variance of a bit
> over 19, as I recall. The same game in hundred play has a variance
> of something like 214. See the Jazbo or Wizard of Odds links to N
> Play discussions.
>
> Chandler
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Coast Casinos points policy----???

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tralfamidorgooglycrackers"
<tralfamidorgooglycrackers@...> wrote:
>
> Okay, let's see if I understand this "new" slot club approach:
>
> 1. The comp/cashback rate has been savaged: what used to be .33
> comps/cashback is now .1, or, worse, .05 on the pitifully few FPVP
> that remain.
>
> 2. In order to not have every local player run screaming to other
> competing casinos, they are offering frequent 3X days, and not so
> frequent 7X point days, which roughly compensate the negative EV
> player for the reduction from .33 to .1 (restoring the rate to .3),
> and also making up for the loss of "holiday double points". The FP
> player has been all but told to take his or her stinkin' carcass
> elsewhere.
>
> 3. The mailers are roughly the same as they have been, with an
> optimal return of about 1% (if you count comps at face value) at
> $10K coin-in.
>
> 4. The out-of-town visitor should keep moving, stranger.
>
> Do I have this about right?
>

See: http://www.bconnectedonline.com/program_overviewCC.html

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[vpFREE] Bob Dancer's CasinoGaming Column - 15 JAN 2008

Perfecting your play on Joker Ace King Hands

http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2008/0115.html

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