[vpFREE] Re: Long term vs short term again

http://www.lotspiech.com/poker/GamblersRuin.html

Another good one to try on the above calculator is 4700 Jacks or
Better, since it's about a breakeven game. Try stake $5000 and retire
$6000. In the short term odds are about 3 to 1 against beating this
game. Eventually as you play the odds even out. When you get to
150,000 hands, there is only a 29% chance of being within a royal of
breakeven (-$1000 to +$1000 on quarters). Most people expect to
breakeven at this game, but the more hands you play, the less likely
is that result. The odds are more like 50-50 that you will either bust
out a total loss or the casino will kick you out for winning too much
(the odds are actually the ratio of these two end limits, if they are
the same it is 50-50). Most people would consider a 50% risk of ruin
to be excessive, to reduce it you'll have to find an edge against the
casino.

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