NOTI, it's actually not that bad. After 650,000 rounds (1 round = 100 "hands"), say $0.25 100 play, with a half percent edge your EV is $406,250. A dealt RF is $100,000. Although that's a decent chunk of your EV, about 25% of it, it doesn't mean you'll be "in the hole" (negative) without a dealt royal.
Of course, the problem here isn't whether you do or don't get dealt big hands and all that, it's the minuscule half percent edge you're playing with.
With something like a 4% edge, after 650,000 rounds of $0.25 100 play, your EV is $3.25 million. That $100,000 dealt royal doesn't even make a dent in your overall EV. (Not saying you can play 650k rounds on such a play.)
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With the multiplays, you add some big cycle times, like the dealt royal (649,740), dealt aces (54,145), dealt deuces (same), dealt aces with a kicker in games where that matters (216,580), and so on. On a three play these hardly make a difference, but on a 10 play or 100 play or 250 play they make a huge difference because these are clumps of big payoff hands that you either get lucky and get or you get unlucky and don't get (which puts you in a hole). For example on a 10 play, the dealt royal is a 40,000 coin hole. If you play 649,740 dealt hands, roughly a third of the time you will not get a dealt royal and be in the hole, a third of the time you will get one dealt royal, and a third of the time you will get more than one dealt royal.
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Posted by: shagatola shagatola <shagatola@yahoo.com>
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