We are talking apples and oranges here, concerning long term and short term, as far as I am concerned. To my mind, my whole lifetime represents my "long term". That is, my entire lifetime represents all the hands I will ever play. Is is tens of thousands, hundreds of thousand, millions, tens of million? Who knows? Who cares?
But, when I go on a specific gambling trip, usually 2-6 days, I have in mind how many hands I will probably want to play during that trip. This, in my terminology, is my "short term". That is, the total number of hands I will play during this one trip.
Now, before leaving for Las Vegas or Atlantic City or wherever, I want to know how much money I should bring with me, so that I can play as much as I want and not run out of money. First, I decide how many hands I wish to play (10,000, 20,000, more, less, whatever), what game I wish to play (JOB, NSUD, BP, whatever) and at what level I want to play ($0.05, $0.25, $1.00, $5.00, whatever).
Now, this is where the short term risk of ruin software comes in. I run the software with a sufficient variety bankrolls ($500, $1,000, $5,000, $10,000, whatever), until I obtain a risk of ruin that I am comfortable with (0.1%, 1%, 5%, whatever). That determines how money I must bring with me on this trip.
I hope this explains my concept of "short term" and "risk of ruin".
..... bl
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
>
> I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
>
> I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
>
> I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
>
> Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
>
> I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
>
> How many hands people play in a day is not relevant. Only how many hands they have ever played and ever will. A yearly average might come in handy.
>
> I need to know the difference in total play volume for the analysis I'm doing. I'm assuming that short term players play less hands in a year, or in a lifetime than full time players, or there would be no difference.
>
> There is no right or wrong answer to this. I'm just accumulating data.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@> wrote:
> >
> > You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
> >
> > One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
> >
> > ..... bl
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> > >
> > > For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
> > >
> > > Short Term = How many hands?
> > >
> > > Long Term = How many hands?
> > >
> > > What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
> > >
> > > Thanks in advance.
> > >
> > > ~FK
> > >
> >
>
