There's not necessarily a clear dividing line between gambling
propositions that are "pure math" and those that aren't. There may be
none that are and maybe they all incorporate it to varying degrees.
Video poker expected value must incorporate the chance that a machine
is gaffed and how, which I know of no more feasible way to calculate
than I do how a particular horse performs, in, say, cold weather.
Sports and racing handicapping is basically a mystery to me, too, but
I believe it uses a lot of math in evaluating correlations.
On Sun, 08 May 2011 07:30:03 -0000, Frank wrote:
>No formula. Arrgh!!! Guess it's not for me then. Don't involve myself with things that eat.
>
>I prefer pure math.
>
>~FK
>
>--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kcace1024" <cy4873@...> wrote:
>>
>> Frank,
>>
>> There is no math formula for horse racing. You can estimate winning probabilities based on any number of factors, but there is a lot of debate over just what factors have value. You need to identify who is overbet and who is underbet to determine if you have a positive expectancy. For many races it is difficult to find anything worth betting. The Derby almost always provides value because of the large amount of bets made without any attempt to handicap the race.
>>
>> Chris
>>
>> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>> >
>> > Would it be possible for you to provide the math work behind these picks that lead you to the conclusion that these were positive expectancies???
>> >
>> > Currently I have no way to double check your work because I don't know horse math.
>> >
>> > ~FK
>> >
>> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, James Thompson <jamesgthompson@> wrote:
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Unbelievable!!!!!!!
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
>> > > From: sewellnj@
>> > > Date: Sat, 7 May 2011 22:44:07 +0000
>> > > Subject: Re: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Good Job Coach! I owe you a drink. Thanks John.
>> > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > From: coachvee@
>> > > To: acvpp@yahoogroups.com
>> > > Cc: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpmail2@yahoogroups.com
>> > > Sent: Friday, May 6, 2011 8:54:16 AM
>> > > Subject: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Hi Gang:
>> > > Here are my picks for tomorrow's Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
>> > > each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
>> > > Regards,
>> > > CoachVee
>> > > 1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
>> > > to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
>> > > style perfect for this race and breeding says he'll love distance; picks up
>> > > Eclipse-winning jock.
>> > > 2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
>> > > when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
>> > > preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
>> > > 3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
>> > > including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
>> > > charging hard through stretch.
>> > > 4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
>> > > in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
>> > > with too much to do.
>> > > LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
>> > > hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
>> > > surface.
>> > >
>> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>> > >
>> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>> > >
>> >
>>
>
