--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kcace1024" <cy4873@...> wrote:
>
> Frank,
>
> There is no math formula for horse racing. You can estimate winning probabilities based on any number of factors, but there is a lot of debate over just what factors have value. You need to identify who is overbet and who is underbet to determine if you have a positive expectancy. For many races it is difficult to find anything worth betting. The Derby almost always provides value because of the large amount of bets made without any attempt to handicap the race.
>
> Chris
Very well put, Chris. The heavy betting on Borel's horse yesterday was a good example. For Borel's horse's odds to make sense, Borel would have to be worth 3-4 lengths extra when compared to other top jockeys like Dominguez, Gomez and Velasquez. That's just not realistic, no matter how much you admire Borel's rides (and luck) in recent Derbies. Another example: The comparatively low odds on Pants on Fire was probably due to (1) having a female jockey, and, perhaps (2) the fun name.
When some horses are irrationally overbet, it makes finding good bets easier. You don't get that kind of impactful hunch betting in day-to-day races.
--Dunbar
