--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
>
> Frank, I knew an old horse bettor that was actually pretty good. I don't get involved in handicapping because I understand I don't have the skills. But this old horse bettor told me some things.
>
> He told me that he almost exclusively bet the New York tracks because it was only 13% rake compared to at least 17% elsewhere. And he also had a Canadien account. The American and Canadien money is two separate pools and horses go off on different numbers.
New York tracks now have a 15% takeout on win/place/show bets, though it used to be 14% and very briefly 13%. California tracks have had a 15.43% takeout on WPS for quite a while. Gulfstream Park in Florida has a 15% WPS takeout, though it used to be at least 17%.
I think Canadian and US money is now bet into the same pool. It was more fun when money at every track was separate. You could get a better price on a Ky Derby East Coast horse by betting it in Calif, and a better price on a West Coast horse by betting it in NY. There were times when you could have made a profit by betting every horse in the Derby.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=trktkout&header=off
>
> This guy was like 70 years old and he told me he learned handicapping at a young age from some of the best in the world. He also told me that of the thousands of horse bettors he knew over the years there was only about a dozen where if he owned the book he'd tell them to take their business elsewhere. That's pretty much all the math I need to know.
As your acquaintance suggested, it's definitely a tough game to beat. But as in some otherwise difficult games, there are occasional opportunities to get a big edge. Successful cappers are few and far between. Despite this, they do not necessarily bring the same skills to the table. I know one successful capper who has a definite edge betting some 2-yr-old races, because he goes to the sales and is a terrific judge of running style. I was skeptical at first, but I watched him post picks for 3 years, 100's of races, and the stats were convincing. I have zero skill at watching a horse's running style, but I'm pretty good at picking out some rarish opportunities, the best of which do depend on some math. I'm pretty sure I could convince even Frank that the bets I'm making have a big edge, but it would be very counterproductive for me to do that. The parimutual nature of horseracing means that the more you (or anyone with the same idea) bet, the lower your return.
--Dunbar
