you forgot to specify your error rate. if you think it is 0.00%, think again. if it is higher than that, you need to include it in your calculations, particularly when you're talking about such a thin edge.
pickem is a particularly treacherous game when it comes to real-world error rate. the strategy is easy, and it is easy to put up a near-perfect session playing for 20 minutes on a trainer and get overconfident. however, because it is a stud game, errors cost a lot more than in draw games; and the sort of errors you need to worry about are ones from random distraction or fatigue that are difficult to replicate outside the casino.
you can make a half-dozen errors an hour playing JoB and still have an error rate under 0.01%, as long as they're not the bad errors. that's not the case in pickem. almost all errors in pickem are bad. having a real-world long-session pickem error rate under 0.07%, which is what you need for this play to be +EV at all, is HARD.
i'm not going to say for sure that this play isn't +EV for you, but i will say that i'd rather book your action than back it.
good luck,
five
On Wed, Nov 6, 2013 at 5:03 PM, <eric_vp1991@yahoo.com> wrote:
Greetings from Southeastern Wisconsin. In my local casino, there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.
Here's my question: what is the risk of ruin at 50%, 25%, 10% etc.? I cannot find a RoR calculator for Pick 'em Poker anywhere online.
If anyone has any idea on where to find one or has the drive to make one, I think that would help the community immensely.
Thanks
-Eric
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