John,
If you happen to have tracked details of your RF/deuces hits, then you can explain for yourself this "aberational" return:
The key question is, "How concentrated were the hits?" e.g. were the royals hit from 4 separate deals, or (as I'm willing to bet) from only 2 or 3 deals. Ditto on the quad deuces.
As you surmise in your concluding statement, variance for multiline play is different than single line play; multiline adds an additional factor of "covariance".
In short, covariance measures the degree to which you anticipate getting multiple hits from a single deal, and is why a larger bankroll is required to survive multiline play of a given denomination vs single line play at the same denom (a propensity for mulitple hits and a propensity for longer droughts go hand in hand). If there were no covariance, both would require the same bankroll, despite the larger wager per play in multiline.
If you want to satisfiy yourself that multilline play ultimately approaches expected value, put the game into autoplay and just let it run a million iterations ;)
(I have a friend who gets a kick out of doing so with winpoker on an ipad w/ 100-play)
-----------
Re Dunbar's Risk Analyzer -- Have a missed a release announcement on the new version? (Thought is was a few weeks out ...)
btw, I suggest reminding folks that they need Excel to use DRA, to avoid disappointment.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote :
Sometimes, for kicks, I will play a game on Winpoker that is no longer available. Recently, I was playing 17/10 loose deuces and decided to play it as a 10 play, $5 game.
My results have been unusually good, even for a highly positive game.
Dealt hands 4644
Total hands 46440
Return 117.10%
Royal Flush 4
Deuces 16
Now, that is about 3 more royal flushes than expected ( 12,000 coins) and about 6.1 more deuces than expected ( 15,250 coins). But I am ahead 39,705 coins. That means on the non RF/non deuce hands, I am ahead about 12,455 coins, when the expected return for the non RF/non deuce hands is 89.20% or a loss of 25,077 coins. That just seems like a huge difference from expected value on the more common hands. And due to multitasking while playing ( and not having played loose deuces in a long time) I also lost 41.66 coins due to errors ( 0.17% error rate which is about a magnitude of order too high)
Aside from this being a fantasy situation, has anyone else seen very unusual results on Winpoker? I have played about 1 royal cycle but for the lesser paying hands, I have played many cycles, over 70 on the wild royal flush and those are all well above expected value. Also, there hasn't been any dealt quads, maybe 1 dealt WRF and 1 or 2 dealt SFs.
A couple of conclusions:
1) 10 play has much different variance than single line
2) Everyone on this board should buy the new DRA that does up to 10 play ROR calcs.
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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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