It might not be quite this simple, but I believe the standard deviation is the square root of the number of trials times the variance, which would be 4555. I assume you want to know the chance of breaking even or better, not just exactly breaking even, so you'd have to fluctuate at least 20,000 units, or about 4.4 standard deviations. According to the table at the following link, that chance is around 1 in 100,000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation#Confidence_interval_of_a_sampled_standard_deviation
A double check on this is that the standard deviation of the number of jackpots is roughly the square root of the number of cycles. If you assume that the entire fluctuation in 1 million hands is due to how the number of royal flushes has deviated, in 25 cycles, a 5 jackpot variation is 1 standard deviation. To fluctuate by 25 royals would be 5 standard deviations.
On Sun, Feb 12, 2017 at 5:14 AM, mickeycrimm@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Okay, vp_Wiz. So lets say 7/5 Bonus Poker which has a 98.01% payback and a 20.75 variance. Thanks.
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Posted by: Tom Robertson <007kzq@gmail.com>
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