Tom wrote: "I don't understand how Bayes' Theorem isn't garbage in, garbage out. How would it determine, say, the chance that a machine is gaffed? It requires an initial estimate of that chance."
I don't think you're using that hammer the right way. What you want to do is make an initial assumption of what the royal cycle is, or another jackpot cycle, then you use actual results as feedback of your initial assumption.
I think another problem is that you're thinking of "results" as pure noise, but they are not pure noise, that's the key to Bayes.
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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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