I don't understand how Bayes' Theorem isn't garbage in, garbage out. How would it determine, say, the chance that a machine is gaffed? It requires an initial estimate of that chance.
On Tue, Apr 18, 2017 at 12:12 PM, nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
LOL, a better way to do "confirmation" is with Bayesian Probability. A shortcut way is to look for at least one "confirmation" in 5 cycles, that gives you a 2/3rd% error rate if you have the "cycle" correct. A "cycle" is how you handle probabilistic events, for example something that happens 1 in 3 on average has a "cycle" of 3.
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Posted by: Tom Robertson <007kzq@gmail.com>
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