I think some are focusing the discussion on the randomness of "outcomes" instead on the randomness of actual combinations. I know I am. All I care about are outcomes. It matters not to me what my ultimate losing hand is. 4 to a straight flush = a rainbow of unpaired odd cards = pair of 4s. The decisions we make on the draw dramatically impact the probabilities of outcomes, but not the cards actually drawn. The cards are random, the outcomes are not necessarily. I haven't played FPDW in so long that if I found one there is little doubt in my mind I would not have optimal play. Many in this group would. Their outcomes, over time, would be superior to mine. That's not random. They wouldn't have some inside track on knowing what the next card would be. That's random.
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: frank@progressivevp.com
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2011 20:46:15 +0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest
Interesting argument. I would comment thus:
You shouldn't be using the word, "equiprobable" and "results" in the same sentence. They very meaning of "probable" is what's likely to happen; and this judgment is made in advance of any "results". You are mixing your metaphors.
If results perfectly matched expectations then the word would be, "equiabsolute". No such word exists, lets keep it that way.
You stated with confidence that, "everybody knows the results of video poker are not equiprobable".
I know of no such thing. When I went over the two year records of my 88 member team, I was shocked at how close to exact expectation we had come. So close in fact, it was almost eerie. I have talked to the managers of other teams with similar large samples, and they all agree that VP machines exceeded their own expectation in keeping to perfectly random.
I don't like to contradict people, but you made a statement as to the beliefs of "everybody". If you meant "everybody you know", I forgive you. If so, I can add with confidence that "everybody you know" is no one I know.
After about our 50,000,000 hand as a team, we became convinced VP machines were honest and random.
Oh "equiprobable" is not mine, I got it from a book on Randomness and Modern RNG's.
4-days to close of contest, if you'd like to put in an entry.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, David Silvus <djsilvus@> wrote:
> >The total of the roll of 2 dice isn't entirely random since certain totals of the 2 dice are far more probable than others.
>
> I guess that's true if you define random as equiprobable as Frank wants to do. Personally I'm not that crazy about that definition. It leads to odd conclusions, like that the results of video poker are less random than the results of a fair coin flip, since everybody knows the results of video poker are not equiprobable.
>
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