about 0.25% here is a link to a Poisson calulator
http://stattrek.com/Tables/Poisson.aspx
better luck next time
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "donald" <seetrout699@...> wrote:
>
> I am just back in Canada after spending 12 days at Sam's Town in Las Vegas. Although I spent as much as 3 months every winter in Las Vegas for about 10 years now I only visit there about once a year to get my gambling fix.
>
> After years of running slightly above average in terms of probabilities and luck these are now trying to get me back to lifetime average luck in a hurry. In spite of all of this I did have a good time, I ate too much, saw some good movies and did wonderfully well on the stock market while I was gone so please do not feel at all sorry for me.
>
> While there in the video poker department I stuck exclusively to FPDW. I play optimum strategy and while not playing that fast [500-600 hands/hour] I make very few errors. I plugged $35,887.50 into the machines. At $1.25/hand that represents a total of 28,710 hands played. I did not hit the large jackpot [royal flush, no deuces] which is not at all unusual. But what is unusual is that I did not hit the small jackpot [4 deuces] even once. Since that occurs about every 4900 hands on average that means that I played nearly 6 full cycles without hitting the deuces.
>
> Any idea what the odds of that happening would be or the % of time that that might occur. My non-mathematical guess is that that would occur
> less than 1% of the time.
>
> What do you think and has this ever occured to you?
>
