Tom
I think that what's happening here is that we are getting into a back and forth about what is meant by predicting a trend and following a trend.I chose to follow the last occurance of the data or go with the flow..If there's a loss ,I bet loss.If there's a win ,I bet win.I could have chosen to bet alternates or any other pattern.Again,I believe that I'm not trying to predict anything because you can't.I'm just trying to follow what the data is doing.Sometimes i'm right and sometimes i'm wrong.I'm not using VooDoo or Magic or anything else.If in the end,50% of the time I'm right and 50% of the time I'm wrong,so be it.
I'm not trying to advocate that other people use this method of play.I was just sharing that so far,for the time that I've been playing it,I've done better than when I played 5 coins all the time.I concede that it could very well have been luck and that over the next year,it could all average out.I was just trying to apply a good general rule.If your losing,bet less.If your winning,bet more.In gambling always limit your losses and maximize your wins.And conserve Bankroll.
The disadvantages of this method are: 1) You give up a small amount of EV.And therefore in the long term might actually lose a little more than if you played 5 coins.
2) You risk the possibility of hitting a Royal at 1 coin.
For me the advantages have been: 1) It seems that you can play longer on the same Bankroll
2) It seems to give you a smoother ride in terms of downside volitility
3) I've had a greater percentage of winning sessions even if they were for a small amount.(Again,could have been Luck)
You could elimiate both disadvantages by doing the same thing on a Multi-denomination machine that doesn't penelize you at the lower denominations.I think this is the way I going to go from now on,if I can find the right machine.
Also,I feel this is something to consider:The fact that in most games a large percentage of your wins are in fact pushes means that you only win back what you bet and therefore statistically it would seem to me that they count as zero.Unlike the game of Pick'em in which 9's or better yield a true win.
They don't add or take away from your bankroll.So,when I miss the first win at 5 coins(let's say it was a High Pair),I don't lose anything for doing so,even though I only betted 1 coin and waited for a win to start betting 5.So,in that case,( and I know I'm going to raise some eyebrows on this one)the first win might actually becomes a leading indicator for the rest of whatever duration streak might occur,if it occurs.If it doesn't occur,then I'll lose and maybe catch the next one.
Marc
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-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Nov 8, 2011 11:50 am
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins
Marc wrote:
>I totally agree with you that you can't predict anything on a VP machine.The RNG is going to do what it does regardless of what I do.Nobody knows if the next hand is going to be a win or a loss.But if you look at the results over a period of time,you'll see Hot streaks,cold streaks and choppy streaks all of different durations,all spit out by the RNG.Predicting a trend and JUMPING IN on a POSSIBLE trend are 2 different things.
But if the machine is unpredictable, a possible trend could come after
any pattern. A ten hand winning streak is as likely to occur after a
5 hand winning streak as it is after a series of ten hands in which
wins and losses have alternated in streaks of one each.
>Let me draw another analogy using the Stock market,regardless of whether it's predictable or not.Traders put indicators on the raw data to help them to decide whether to make a trade or not.One common indicator they use is an EMA(Exponential Moving Average).The EMA is a LAGGING indicator designed to help the Trader get in on a Trend.It doesn't predict anything.
It predicts that the trend will continue. If it's not predictable,
then any particular future trend is as likely after any past pattern.
The trend continuing is as likely as it is reversing.
>It's a trend following indicator.Is the stock going to continue to go up or go down? Nobody knows,but if the trend continues,the EMA will keep you in the trend as long as it continues.
If the trend isn't predictable, it can't do that without getting
lucky.
>Well,my "indicator" is waiting for 1 win to occur which means that it also is a lagging indicator.I'll always miss the first win because I have to wait for it to occur.But if the RNG "desides to deal me lets say 7 wins in a row,I'll be in on the last 6.Just like a trader has to wait for the EMA to cross above the data(which has already started the trend)before he can trade and therefore misses the beginning of the trend,but gets in on the
>remainder of the trend.The trader isn't trying to predict anything.
I don't understand how an unpredictable trend can be exploited. If
it's not predictable, how does anyone know it hasn't ended by the time
it has been recognized?
>In response to my post,Mickey mentioned doing the same thing on a Mult-Denom.machine.So instead of betting between 1 & 5 coins,you could switch between 25 cents and $2.00 and not sacrifice any EV.I like that idea better than my 1-5,But I don't know of any machines in AC with playable paytables that you could do that on.Maybe you or someone else does.
Unless he meant it as a form of "free" (in terms of expected value)
recreation, I don't know why Mickey recommended that. The only other
thing I can think of is to adjust the volume of one's play due to
updated bankroll considerations.
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