I totally agree with you that you can't predict anything on a VP machine.The RNG is going to do what it does regardless of what I do.Nobody knows if the next hand is going to be a win or a loss.But if you look at the results over a period of time,you'll see Hot streaks,cold streaks and choppy streaks all of different durations,all spit out by the RNG.Predicting a trend and JUMPING IN on a POSSIBLE trend are 2 different things.To me,EV has to do with the payout of the VP machine for the various hands,So obviously 9/6 for a Full house and Flush will yield a better EV than 8/5.I can't change that.
Let me draw another analogy using the Stock market,regardless of whether it's predictable or not.Traders put indicators on the raw data to help them to decide whether to make a trade or not.One common indicator they use is an EMA(Exponential Moving Average).The EMA is a LAGGING indicator designed to help the Trader get in on a Trend.It doesn't predict anything.It's a trend following indicator.Is the stock going to continue to go up or go down? Nobody knows,but if the trend continues,the EMA will keep you in the trend as long as it continues.Well,my "indicator" is waiting for 1 win to occur which means that it also is a lagging indicator.I'll always miss the first win because I have to wait for it to occur.But if the RNG "desides to deal me lets say 7 wins in a row,I'll be in on the last 6.Just like a trader has to wait for the EMA to cross above the data(which has already started the trend)before he can trade and therefore misses the beginning of the trend,but gets in on the remainder of the trend.The trader isn't trying to predict anything.
In response to my post,Mickey mentioned doing the same thing on a Mult-Denom.machine.So instead of betting between 1 & 5 coins,you could switch between 25 cents and $2.00 and not sacrifice any EV.I like that idea better than my 1-5,But I don't know of any machines in AC with playable paytables that you could do that on.Maybe you or someone else does.
Marc
Original Message-----
From: Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Nov 8, 2011 12:59 am
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins
Marc wrote:
>I"m not trying to predict anything.I'm trying to jump in on a possible trend.A winning streak must start with a win and a losing streak must start with a loss.So,I wait for the first one and hope it's the start of a good streak.Like they say in the Stock Market,"The trend is your friend".
You're trying to predict how long the streak will last. "Hope" and
expected value have little, if anything, to do with each other. For
all I know, there might be predictable trends in the stock market, but
video poker machines are designed to be completely unpredictable. If
they are predictable, all theoretical payback percentages, including
that 9/6 Jacks or Better has a 99.54% payback, are wrong and would be
trumped by where, in the "streak," one is. What evidence do you have
that such streaks are predictable? Have you ever, for example,
analyzed your results of the next hand after, say, 7 wins in a row?
What would you estimate your advantage to be on the 8th hand? How
would such streaks be programmed into the machine? That sounds much
more complicated than programming them to be random and unpredictable.
Would each result be programmed to increase the probability of the
same result on the next hand?
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