--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:
>
> Marc wrote:
>
> >I"m not trying to predict anything.I'm trying to jump in on a possible trend.A winning streak must start with a win and a losing streak must start with a loss.So,I wait for the first one and hope it's the start of a good streak......>
Tom wrote:
> You're trying to predict how long the streak will last. ...... What evidence do you have that such streaks are predictable? Have you ever, for example, analyzed your results of the next hand after, say, 7 wins in a row? ..................
I'll take Tom's response one step further. Marc, it sounds like you are saying the probability of a winning hand when the last 4 hands have been winners is greater than the probability of a winning hand immediately after a losing hand. I completely disagree with that notion.
For curiousity sake, if you have the patience to do so, record your plays after the first 'win in the streak'. That is, sit down and start playing. Whenever you win a hand at 1 coin, record the results for the 5 coin bets that follow. If you play long enough, you will find that those hands have the same hand distribution as the 1 coin hands.
The only thing you are doing with your method is playing some percentage of the hands with 1 coin and some with 5 coins. Let's say it works out that in a 2000 hand session, you play 1200 hands with 1 coin and 800 hands with 5 coins. Your expected value is exactly the same as if you had played the first 800 hands with 1 coin and the next 1200 hands with 5 coins. It is also the same as if you had played 8 hands with 1 coin followed by 12 hands with 5 coins and repeated the process. Overall, you will have played x hands with 1 coin and y hands with 5 coins.
Just because you don't lose 7 hands in a row at 5 coins does not mean you have lost less. It is just ordered differently. Let's say you play 10 hands at full coin. Losing 8 in a row and then hitting back to back full houses has the same return as losing 5 in a row, hitting a full house, losing 3 in a row and then hitting a full house. The order of your results does not affect your results and any betting pattern you choose has its EV determined by how many hands you play at one coin and how many you play at 5 coins. That's it. When you bet 1 coin and when you bet 5 coins does not matter. If it does, then the machines are not random.
