Marc wrote:
>Tom
>
>I think that what's happening here is that we are getting into a back and forth about what is meant by predicting a trend and following a trend.I chose to follow the last occurance of the data or go with the flow..If there's a loss ,I bet loss.If there's a win ,I bet win.I could have chosen to bet alternates or any other pattern.Again,I believe that I'm not trying to predict anything because you can't.I'm just trying to follow what the data is doing.
You say you're not trying to predict anything, but you keep saying
things that reveal that you are. Your phrase "is doing" implies that
you predict the trend will continue. If video poker machines really
are unpredictable, as you say, your tense is wrong. The machine isn't
"doing" anything. It only just did something.
>I'm not trying to advocate that other people use this method of play.I was just sharing that so far,for the time that I've been playing it,I've done better than when I played 5 coins all the time.I concede that it could very well have been luck and that over the next year,it could all average out.I was just trying to apply a good general rule.
Your use of the word "could" means that you think that the machines
might be predictable. Why not try the system of only playing when
it's cloudy? If, after a few sessions, you're ahead, would you say
that it could have been luck or, since the result of the machines
aren't correlated with the weather, that it was luck? I think you're
trying to hedge your bets and have it both ways.
>If your losing,bet less.If your winning,bet more.
As was the case with your phrase "is doing," if the machines are
unpredictable, your tense is wrong.
>In gambling always limit your losses and maximize your wins.And conserve Bankroll.
>
>The disadvantages of this method are: 1) You give up a small amount of EV.And therefore in the long term might actually lose a little more than if you played 5 coins.
>
> 2) You risk the possibility of hitting a Royal at 1 coin.
>
>For me the advantages have been: 1) It seems that you can play longer on the same Bankroll
>
> 2) It seems to give you a smoother ride in terms of downside volitility
Won't always playing 1 coin do both 1) and 2) better than going back
and forth between playing 1 coin and 5 coins?
> 3) I've had a greater percentage of winning sessions even if they were for a small amount.(Again,could have been Luck)
Maybe! In 1971, my best friend's favorite baseball team was the
Pirates. Mine was the Orioles. I was addicted to a table baseball
game that used dice and was based on the statistics of each player.
Before the 7th game of the World Series that year, I played a
simulated game which the Orioles won, 5 to 3. I told my friend that
based on the result of that one game, the Orioles were probably going
to win. I've come a long way since then in realizing what it takes to
have an adequate sample size. Your use of the word "could" means that
you have some work to do in that area, also. Most people are amazed
at how far results can deviate from expected value. It takes some
education.
