Marc wrote:
>I totally agree with you that you can't predict anything on a VP machine.The RNG is going to do what it does regardless of what I do.Nobody knows if the next hand is going to be a win or a loss.But if you look at the results over a period of time,you'll see Hot streaks,cold streaks and choppy streaks all of different durations,all spit out by the RNG.Predicting a trend and JUMPING IN on a POSSIBLE trend are 2 different things.
But if the machine is unpredictable, a possible trend could come after
any pattern. A ten hand winning streak is as likely to occur after a
5 hand winning streak as it is after a series of ten hands in which
wins and losses have alternated in streaks of one each.
>Let me draw another analogy using the Stock market,regardless of whether it's predictable or not.Traders put indicators on the raw data to help them to decide whether to make a trade or not.One common indicator they use is an EMA(Exponential Moving Average).The EMA is a LAGGING indicator designed to help the Trader get in on a Trend.It doesn't predict anything.
It predicts that the trend will continue. If it's not predictable,
then any particular future trend is as likely after any past pattern.
The trend continuing is as likely as it is reversing.
>It's a trend following indicator.Is the stock going to continue to go up or go down? Nobody knows,but if the trend continues,the EMA will keep you in the trend as long as it continues.
If the trend isn't predictable, it can't do that without getting
lucky.
>Well,my "indicator" is waiting for 1 win to occur which means that it also is a lagging indicator.I'll always miss the first win because I have to wait for it to occur.But if the RNG "desides to deal me lets say 7 wins in a row,I'll be in on the last 6.Just like a trader has to wait for the EMA to cross above the data(which has already started the trend)before he can trade and therefore misses the beginning of the trend,but gets in on the
>remainder of the trend.The trader isn't trying to predict anything.
I don't understand how an unpredictable trend can be exploited. If
it's not predictable, how does anyone know it hasn't ended by the time
it has been recognized?
>In response to my post,Mickey mentioned doing the same thing on a Mult-Denom.machine.So instead of betting between 1 & 5 coins,you could switch between 25 cents and $2.00 and not sacrifice any EV.I like that idea better than my 1-5,But I don't know of any machines in AC with playable paytables that you could do that on.Maybe you or someone else does.
Unless he meant it as a form of "free" (in terms of expected value)
recreation, I don't know why Mickey recommended that. The only other
thing I can think of is to adjust the volume of one's play due to
updated bankroll considerations.
